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Eric Karga

FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)

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I don't see why F2  wouldn't hit $450 million. Sure, it won't have F1's legs, but F1's legs were 6.0X from OW and 4.3X from its 5-day opening. So it doesn't need those legs. But 3.6X doesn't seem like a tall task for this film. 

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Frozen had a huge weekend in North America and overseas and some are desperately trying to spin it as a failure so they can continue to spew their doom and gloom malarkey about streaming shutting down theaters in a year. 

 

There's no way to spin it, that Ford vs Ferrari drop is disappointing. yes I know it lost IMAX but supposedly the word of mouth is red hot and A+ and it drops 49%? That doesn't add up. I'm not saying it's flopping or anything and it can recover but the drop itself isn't good. 

 

Charlie's Angels, Dark Fate and Doctor Sleep dived into the box office abyss. I've seen people try to spin Charlie's Angels and Dark Fate's numbers and there is no spinning. They are putting up embarrassing numbers. Doing better than mega flop Dark Phoenix is not a measure of success.

 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood opening is very mild. It's going to need a great run. 21 Bridges looks like straight to streaming shlock and nobody cared to see it. Couldn't Chadwick land a better post Black Panther movie? Midway will make money for Lionsgate but the other investors are crap out of luck.

 

Joker keeps chugging along. With estimates, at least, it escaped a 50% drop and passed Suicide Squad money wise. It also passed Captain Marvel overseas without China or the powerful Marvel machine's help. I just love how Phoenix and Phillips brought Joker's respect back after WB happily allowed Ayer and Leto to try to destroy the character with their awful version in 2016. Hopefully Joaquin Phoenix does land that deserved best actor Oscar nomination.

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28 minutes ago, Alli said:

The Shining is not exactly a cult classic. It made 44M in 1980, that's more than many horror movies released these days. The problem is that the original audience is dead or too old to care. The teens today just didn't care for its sequel

didn't stop titanic from becoming a blockbuster.

 

 

 

 

 

:sparta:

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400m should happen for Frozen 2 but not sure about much more. Remember it will have the harsh paint Thanksgiving drop then Jumanji should hurt it being family competition 

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Frozen 2's opening being lower than Finding Dory let alone Incredibles 2 just proves the point that no one should've compared it to those in the first place

 

13-14 years of nostalgia build up >>> a 6 year gap

Summer films >>> November films

 

This is a success, not an underperformance

The only ones who should be disappointed are the ones who had unrealistic expectations

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3 hours ago, filmlover said:

tbh this was always gonna be a movie more about staying power than a big opening considering how old it skews (my audience yesterday was made up mostly of seniors so consider this your warning @WrathOfHan). Feeling it could leg it out to a similar total as Bridge of Spies ($72M).

I saw it late on Thursday night and had a dead silent audience tyvm

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@keysersoze123 it will be interesting if wom isnt strong enough to actually make Frozen a victim of the 400m original pattern.... doubtful, but it will be curious to see if it can gross more than TS4 now. 

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There is way too much Monday Morning Quarterback and going on. You guys know that huge pre-sales don't always translate into a huge box office. Also there's the fact that Frozen 2 did not get to level reviews or word-of-mouth as the first one. Could be that some fans of the original are just waiting for streaming.

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6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

I saw it late on Thursday night and had a dead silent audience tyvm

The theater must've been almost empty considering most of its audience is in bed by then. :lol:

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1 hour ago, filmlover said:

What happened to our beloved Panda? Now we're stuck with discount Lara Spencer.

Grad school makes you jaded and resentful of all things “fun”

Edited by The Panda

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4 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Grad school makes you jaded and resentful of all things “fun”

 

Mentally old before being physically old.

 

Sad.

 

YXIe.gif

 

 

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7 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Grad school makes you jaded and resentful of all things “fun”

Here's a gif of Baby Po to remind you of all the fun things in the world:

 

Image result for kung fu panda po gif

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12 minutes ago, Curtis1986 said:

There is way too much Monday Morning Quarterback and going on. You guys know that huge pre-sales don't always translate into a huge box office. Also there's the fact that Frozen 2 did not get to level reviews or word-of-mouth as the first one. Could be that some fans of the original are just waiting for streaming.

 

Or, you know, parents have a 5 day holiday weekend coming up and are waiting for that. 

Some people are desperately trying to spin everything as streaming killing cinema these days, and it's just not the case. 

Frozen 2 will have a fantastic 5 day weekend and a large 10 day total. It's going to be just fine. 

Knives Out looks to be a breakout 5 day opening if the preview numbers are anything to go by. 

 

A Beautiful Day follows a much beloved documentary about Rogers. Even Tom Hanks himself said he was unsure after seeing the documentary whether or not it was even necessary to make A Beautiful Day (ultimately he and the director thought there was more story to tell there, but perhaps audiences just did not agree).

Charlie's Angels, Dark Fate and Dr. Sleep flopping have very little to do with streaming taking way viewers than the fact that no one was asking for these sequels. If you build it, they still might not come if they aren't interested. 

The strength of some limited runs lately show that there is certainly an appetite for new and fresh movies. The Peanut Butter Falcon, Judy, Parasite and Jojo Rabbit have all/are all going to finish with totals 20m+ (some much more depending on how awards season goes). There is still an appetite for films, but no one wants to pay for something that looks uninteresting. 

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5 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

 

Mentally old before being physically old.

 

Sad.

 

YXIe.gif

 

 

The improvement of the animation from Frozen to Frozen 2 is really insane

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Shrek2 did 108 ow / 129 5-day. Assuming 120 FSS ow had it opened on a Friday and was in previews era it's legs end up as 3.65-3.70x.

Dory did 3.60x 3 years back.

TS4 had stellar wom and did just under Dory at 3.58x this year.

 

3.5x * 129 ow (should go up 2-3 from 127 imo) = 451.5

3.6x * 130 = 464.5

Before Fall if you thought Joker + Hustlers would match Frozen2, kudos. gatsby-thanks.png

 

Edited by a2k

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1 hour ago, Xftg123 said:

Not really. Streaming isn't going to kill the theater going experience.

 

The only reason why there's a low opening is because, well, depending on the sequel, it deflates. But not only that, people are most likely waiting to see the movie next week during Thanksgiving compared to this week, where kids are off on those days.

 

 

Nope, prices will...

 

Just see the family presale explosion of cheap Tuesday and 1st show on weekends' purchases...families have price points they won't exceed...and families still can't be movie subscribers (at least in full - their parents can)...

 

That price point limit will expand to more and more of the non-subscriber audience...

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27 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@keysersoze123 it will be interesting if wom isnt strong enough to actually make Frozen a victim of the 400m original pattern.... doubtful, but it will be curious to see if it can gross more than TS4 now. 

To me this was heavily hyped probably at TI2 level. So PS dominated OW. But TI2 had better walkins as it played broader. But let us wait and watch how next week goes and how it holds after that when weekdays wont be anywhere close to summer level and BO generally dives post thanksgiving till pre christmas weekend. Plus irrespective how much interest people think SW9 has, its going to have a huge OW. Way bigger than F2 and most probably 2nd biggest weekend of the year. That will affect all the holdovers as there are only so many screens going around. I noticed pattern of Joker show count for 6 weeks and despite it having great holds, its showcount started dropping and at times worse levels than what the BO drops indicate.

 

but let us wait and watch. 1st its weekend will be better than Disney estimates. Its very conservative as usual.

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Wait....I thought there was no way F2 misses $130M.

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57 minutes ago, a2k said:

didn't stop titanic from becoming a blockbuster.

 

The funny thing is everyone back then expected Titanic to flop, but it went on to become a big success. And then James Cameron did it again with Avatar, and that became a bug success.

 

The 2nd rerelease of Titanic felt too early though as of recently. Then again, the 2012 rerelease was for the 15th Anniversary and went it crossed 2B, the 2017 is for the 20th Anniversary.

Edited by Xftg123

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I’m really wrestling with how Neighborhood and Ferrari have done this weekend. The latter, not a terrible hold, but after it’s reception you’d think it would have held way better than that. 
 

I guess we just need to put our focus on hoping older audiences having the holidays to spend their dollars on these good movies. 
 

Praying to the movie gods we get a few adult aimed films getting some legs....

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