FROZEN II WEEKEND THREAD | 130.26M OW | BLACK FRIDAY WEEK SALE: Gold Accounts 25% OFF | I like warm hugs and I cannot lie | No Knives Out Spoilers :)

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, keysersoze123 said:

Frozen D4 PS

That's really good. Normally that would lead to 15 Monday.

[keysersoze123]

8 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

38-38.5

FvF 4.6

Bdn 3.5

rest is blah.

This is much better. Seeing numbers go up instead of down 🙂

 

My update

F2 D3 final

MTC1- overall 6659 shows 533911/1181915 6257018.06 5390437.69 pre noon 1567 shows 131738/242415 1026699.35 1023805.23 post 6PM 2652 shows 160123/501736 2166453.03 1757797.79
MTC2- overall 6943 shows 496475/1032741 4668514.00 pre noon 1590 shows 117063/230585 926315.00  post 6PM 2360 shows 110545/362431 1195774.00

 

Very good hold. it dropped like 18-19% only.

 

 

[keysersoze123]

16 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

That's really good. Normally that would lead to 15 Monday.

This has been more PS driven. But 15m would be good.

[PKMLover]

14 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is much better. Seeing numbers go up instead of down 🙂

 

My update

F2 D3 final

MTC1- overall 6659 shows 533911/1181915 6257018.06 5390437.69 pre noon 1567 shows 131738/242415 1026699.35 1023805.23 post 6PM 2652 shows 160123/501736 2166453.03 1757797.79
MTC2- overall 6943 shows 496475/1032741 4668514.00 pre noon 1590 shows 117063/230585 926315.00  post 6PM 2360 shows 110545/362431 1195774.00

 

Very good hold. it dropped like 18-19% only.

 

 

Omg, only 18-19% drop from sat? So it means $130M can happen? 

Edit: so the internal multi for F2 is 15.3x, higher than Dory of 14.7x . Nice

Edited November 25, 2019 by PKMLover

[charlie Jatinder]

29 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

This is much better. Seeing numbers go up instead of down

So the day I doubted myself, going -10% on what I was seeing in morning, it actually come out right with estimates. huh.

[JB33]

I'd be thrilled with $15M for Monday. The number I was going with was $13.3M.

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

38-38.5

FvF 4.6

Bdn 3.5

rest is blah.

But what about mr. J??

[Noctis]

Its OS numbers are spectacular. Japan (likely biggest of all time), South Korea, France, Germany, and the UK all posted enormous and record numbers for an animated movie with also stunning results in Asia. I said it in the OS thread, but the US being the only one not "exploding" proves that the money Frozen 2 is set to make from today to Sunday will be gigantic and higher than what most people believe. 

 

The OS weekend is $223m (100% underestimated) and it's a debut without these countries:

 

Australia ($13m debut)

Russia ($15m debut)

Italy ($5.5m debut)

Brazil ($6m debut) ER is terrible

Norway ($2m debut)

Argentina ($3.5m debut)

 

...and a bunch of smaller European & Latin American countries. Those six countries would have added around $45m to its OW. The bunch of smaller markets let's say add another $5m total (could be more/less)...$50m more if all countries opened. 

 

Around $280m OS OW...and since it's an animated movie and has had huge debuts in usually leggy markets, it would need to miss a 3.57 multiplier to fail hitting $1b OS. I don't see that happening. 

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Looking at data, I think

41.95

49.85

37.75

 

129.55

Edited November 25, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Noctis]

3 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

38-38.5

FvF 4.6

Bdn 3.5

rest is blah.

+$315k Fri (went from $41.8m to $42.15m)

+$2.6m-$3.1m Sunday

 

It's not hitting below $130m with those numbers..with maybe Saturday doing a little more business it could hit $131m. 

[RealLyre]

 

 

uh did Parasite lose theaters this weekend? is NEON not expanding it anymore ?? 

 

[Noctis]

18 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Looking at data, I think

41.95

49.85

37.75

 

129.55

You whore

[a2k]

14 + 21 (+50%) + 21 + 14 (-33%) = 70

70 Mon-Thu will make a 200 week.

80 2nd weekend feasible after that.

80*2.25-2.5x more will give it 460-480 dom.

Edited November 25, 2019 by a2k

[peludo]

26 minutes ago, a2k said:

14 + 21 (+50%) + 21 + 14 (-33%) = 70

70 Mon-Thu will make a 200 week.

85 2nd weekend feasible after that.

85*2 more will give it 455 dom.

I think it can go higher than that.

 

Some examples of big movies released the weekend before Thanksgiving:

Catching Fire: x1.73

Fantastic Beasts: x1.95

Mockingjay 1: x1.96

Mockingjay 2: x1.60

 

An animated film uses to have way better legs than this kind of franchises. Dory's number ($486m) should be reachable.

Edited November 25, 2019 by peludo

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, Noctis said:

You whore

Oh come on.

It's just 250k. 

Edited November 25, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[charlie Jatinder]

42 minutes ago, a2k said:

14 + 21 (+50%) + 21 + 14 (-33%) = 70

70 Mon-Thu will make a 200 week.

80 2nd weekend feasible after that.

80*2.25-2.5x more will give it 460-480 dom.

I would love

Nov 19, 2018	Monday	2	$4,660,185	-63.1%	-56.3%	4,141	$1,125	$131,623,595	11
Nov 20, 2018	Tuesday	2	$6,800,655	+45.9%	+37.3%	4,141	$1,642	$138,424,250	12
Nov 21, 2018	Wednesday	3	$6,974,765	+2.6%	+162%	3,960	$1,761	$145,399,015	13
Nov 22, 2018 Thanksgiving	Thursday	4	$4,703,755	-32.6%	+86.4%	3,960	$1,187	$150,102,770	14
Nov 23, 2018	Friday	4	$11,590,955	+146.4%	+30.6%	3,960	$2,927	$161,693,725	15
Nov 24, 2018	Saturday	3	$11,632,050	+0.4%	-31.9%	3,960	$2,937	$173,325,775	16
Nov 25, 2018	Sunday	3	$7,169,215	-38.4%	-43.3%	3,960	$1,810	$180,494,990	17

[john2000]

14 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

I would love

Nov 19, 2018	Monday	2	$4,660,185	-63.1%	-56.3%	4,141	$1,125	$131,623,595	11
Nov 20, 2018	Tuesday	2	$6,800,655	+45.9%	+37.3%	4,141	$1,642	$138,424,250	12
Nov 21, 2018	Wednesday	3	$6,974,765	+2.6%	+162%	3,960	$1,761	$145,399,015	13
Nov 22, 2018 Thanksgiving	Thursday	4	$4,703,755	-32.6%	+86.4%	3,960	$1,187	$150,102,770	14
Nov 23, 2018	Friday	4	$11,590,955	+146.4%	+30.6%	3,960	$2,927	$161,693,725	15
Nov 24, 2018	Saturday	3	$11,632,050	+0.4%	-31.9%	3,960	$2,937	$173,325,775	16
Nov 25, 2018	Sunday	3	$7,169,215	-38.4%	-43.3%	3,960	$1,810	$180,494,990	17

?

[AndyK]

9 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Love how you can tell who hasn’t read the brawl article by if they think the brawl was actually related to Frozen in any way...    

 

Clickbait headlines and a culture of only reading the headline are problems individually, but also combine for particularly ignorant results.

Sure, but with the idiocy surrounding Jokers release, the story is just too funny not to run with it.

[JB33]

1 minute ago, john2000 said:

?

Post-OW dailies for Dr. Seuss' The Grinch last year.

 

*checks*

 

Yup.

[HeadShot]

Biggest disappointments of the decade: 

Ultron

TS4

The Lion King

Frozen 2