THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Frozen 85.25 3-Day, 123.75 5-Day. Thanksgiving record! | KO 27/41.7, FvF 13.2/19, ABDITN 11.8/17.3, Q&S 11.7/15.8 | BLACK FRIDAY SALE UNTIL SUNDAY - GOLD ACCOUNTS 25% OFF

[narniadis]

37 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Ohh. This is "weekend estimate" estimate. Then its cool. I thought it's like daily estimate.

 

I will wait for few hours to comment on F2 but KO is looking pretty good today. I think it should clear 7mn today, may be 8.

Jedi, it wont happen Thanksgiving is not a usual day for playing out as the evening shows will die later. Presales should also statistically be higher than usual based on past years behavior of the day. A small increase from True Wednesday may happen if any at all but not overcoming the inflated previews. 

 

Would love to be wrong mind you, but this holiday itself is a bad movie day in general - similar to how July 4th plays out in our summers. 

[filmlover]

It likely won't happen but it would be wild if Frozen pulled off a $100M+ second weekend.

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It likely won't happen but it would be wild if Frozen pulled off a $100M+ second weekend.

I really don't see how it does less than 80m.... the better the hold today the less it will increase Friday but it will still be huge. Would love a 100m 2nd weekend. 

[Legion Again]

13 minutes ago, filmlover said:

It likely won't happen but it would be wild if Frozen pulled off a $100M+ second weekend.

 

47 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Selected Wed:3-day  multipliers from Thanksgiving and derived F2 3-day. Multi from true OD for openers.

 

Frozen1 4.69x ->111.5M 
Megamind 4.67x -> 111M 

Coco 4.67x -> 111M
Puss in Boots 4.55x -> 108M
Big Hero 6 4.52x -> 107.5M

WIR1 4.45x -> 106M

Moana 4.38x -> 104M 

Grinch 4.35x ->103.5M 

FB2 4.33x ->  103M
 

Add 1M if you think Wed actual will be more like 24.05 and 2M if you think Wed actual more like 24.25 😛  

 

Add 40M for 5-day.

   
 

Spoiler

Arguably the holdovers have Wed depressed by the new opener more than their 3-day, leading to slightly higher multi than F2 can get. But OTOH you’d think by a similar logic that the openers in that list would have had inflated Wednesdays and deflated multis, which largely doesn’t seem to be the case. I’ll try to avoid complaining about 95 or something but it honestly looks very realistic.

 

Edited November 28, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[TalismanRing]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Jedi, it wont happen Thanksgiving is not a usual day for playing out as the evening shows will die later. Presales should also statistically be higher than usual based on past years behavior of the day. A small increase from True Wednesday may happen if any at all but not overcoming the inflated previews. 

 

Would love to be wrong mind you, but this holiday itself is a bad movie day in general - similar to how July 4th plays out in our summers. 

Creed (1.4 + 4.6) $6.23m-> $6.46m - 39.7% increase from true Wed.  A similar increase would give KO a $6.64m Thur

 

If it paces the same as Creed over the 5 day that would mean a $44-45m total.

[LegendaryBen]

13 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Jedi, it wont happen Thanksgiving is not a usual day for playing out as the evening shows will die later. Presales should also statistically be higher than usual based on past years behavior of the day. A small increase from True Wednesday may happen if any at all but not overcoming the inflated previews. 

 

Would love to be wrong mind you, but this holiday itself is a bad movie day in general - similar to how July 4th plays out in our summers. 

 Many Amc theaters I’ve seen have a lot of advanced ticket sales for tonight showings for KO. Films like Australia, Hugo, Life of Pi, Creed 1 actually increased more than usual.

[charlie Jatinder]

17 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Jedi, it wont happen Thanksgiving is not a usual day for playing out as the evening shows will die later. Presales should also statistically be higher than usual based on past years behavior of the day. A small increase from True Wednesday may happen if any at all but not overcoming the inflated previews

considered that already. PS are like double yday, expecting just about 50-60% increase.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

   
 

  Hide contents

Arguably the holdovers have Wed depressed by the new opener more than their 3-day, leading to slightly higher multi than F2 can get. But OTOH you’d think by a similar logic that the openers in that list would have had inflated Wednesdays and deflated multis, which largely doesn’t seem to be the case. I’ll try to avoid complaining about 95 or something but it honestly looks very realistic.

 

Ralph 2 3.82. but that had pretty bad initial legs in general.

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Creed (1.4 + 4.6) $6.23m-> $6.46m - 39.7% increase from true Wed.  A similar increase would give KO a $6.64m Thur

 

If it paces the same as Creed over the 5 day that would mean a $44-45m total.

True, but again better to expect less than be disappointed. And inflated previews make the comparison harder for those who may be newer to tracking (not Jedi mind ya lol). Would love to see 6m but it aint coming anywhere near 7 or over. 

Jaded oldtimer talking so chalk it up to my pessimistic attitude 😂

Edited November 28, 2019 by narniadis

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

 Many Amc theaters I’ve seen have a lot of advanced ticket sales for tonight showings for KO. Films like Australia, Hugo, Life of Pi, Creed 1 actually increased more than usual.

Hence my comment about presales being a higher % than normal as Jedi also confirmed below ya. 

 

Its not that films dont increase on this day just keeping my expectations in check when looking at past trends. NOT being a family film is actually a huge benefit for KO. 

[LegendaryBen]

Just now, narniadis said:

Hence my comment about presales being a higher % than normal as Jedi also confirmed below ya. 

 

Its not that films dont increase on this day just keeping my expectations in check when looking at past trends. NOT being a family film is actually a huge benefit for KO. 

That is true. Thanks for your comments and Insight. It’s better to be pessimistic than way optimistic like deadline was when Nikki Finke (I was so mad when she hated on Bridesmaids before even seeing it) was in charge.
 

Happy Thanksgiving to you and your loved ones.

[Krissykins]

49 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Great! Looking forward to seeing this tomorrow night! 

[Zakiyyah6]

2 hours ago, SchumacherFTW said:

I still postulate TS4 over performed

That's because it did over perform.

[Legion Again]

Ahhh, so... I know it’s early... and it’s Variety... but... WTF?  
 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-frozen-2-knives-out-thanksgiving-1203419095/

 

Quote

Frozen 2’ Sizzling With $155 Million for Thanksgiving Weekend

TBF I guess this is basically what you get if you use 24 Wed and a Frozen 1/Coco multi.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[baumer]

4 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

2nd weekend of near 100mn will show that it was. I know it was pre-holiday affect it faced, I totally understand that but saying 130mn is ok for biggest animation brand is nayy.

 

In a normal weekend, it would have easily done 170, may be even blasted I2 record.

 

Despite the number looking low in weekend, I stand to not melt till 2nd weekend, which on expected ground looks great.

 

You guys are failing to take into consideration that thanksgiving, like Christmas, means that people have about 10 days to see the movie.  No need to rush out and see it.  The weekend might have been muted simply because there's no rush to go to it.  I don't see how 130 million is disappointing, only place it would be is here.  

[Nova]

6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Ahhh, so... I know it’s early... and it’s Variety... but... WTF?  
 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-frozen-2-knives-out-thanksgiving-1203419095/

 

TBF I guess this is basically what you get if you use 24 Wed and a Frozen 1/Coco multi.

This would be insane. Holy shit. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

8 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Ahhh, so... I know it’s early... and it’s Variety... but... WTF?  
 

https://variety.com/2019/film/box-office/box-office-frozen-2-knives-out-thanksgiving-1203419095/

 

TBF I guess this is basically what you get if you use 24 Wed and a Frozen 1/Coco multi.

I doubt it.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

I doubt it.

Me too, lol. But I’m liking 145+ atm

[Valonqar]

I don't trust Variety ever since they fanboy'd the fuck out of their AoU OW "estimate"

Edited November 28, 2019 by Valonqar

[a2k]

not 135, 145 or 155, the 5-day will be 1 billiontify