THANKSGIVING WEEKEND THREAD | Frozen 85.25 3-Day, 123.75 5-Day. Thanksgiving record! | KO 27/41.7, FvF 13.2/19, ABDITN 11.8/17.3, Q&S 11.7/15.8 | BLACK FRIDAY SALE UNTIL SUNDAY - GOLD ACCOUNTS 25% OFF

[eddyxx]

AoU would've DEFINITELY broken the OW record if not for that over rated fight. Laugh all you want but it's the TRUTH. 

[Zakiyyah6]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Would have hit it if not for the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. 

What stopped it from having legs after the fight? If it was hurt opening weekend why didn't it have a much softer drop in it's second weekend?

Edited November 28, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[Valonqar]

4 minutes ago, LegendaryBen said:

I've seen many theaters with 60-75% capacity for evening shows in AMC theaters. I think it could still get to 7.

well, me and fam are hitting the theater soon so we'll get it over 7M. 

[a2k]

Considering KO had 4.76 true day, 7 odd looks great IMO. Maybe am missing something.

 

Creed1 6.0 Wed (1.4 previews + 4.6 true Wed) + 6.5 Thu (+41% from true Wed) 

Creed2 11.6 Wed (3.7 previews + 7.9 true Wed) + 8.9 Thu (+13% from true Wed)

Knives 8.46 Wed (3.7 previews + 4.76 true Wed) + ~7 Thu (+47% from true Wed)

 

6.5 would be +36.5% from true Wed.

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

What stopped it from having legs after the fight? If it was hurt opening weekend why didn't it have a much softer drop in it's second weekend?

 

===

 

I'm referencing the years old meme.   I thought the sarcasm was self-evident, especially since I ain't a Marvel fanatic, but perhaps not.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Porthos

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

What stopped it from having legs after the fight? If it was hurt opening weekend why didn't it have a much softer drop in it's second weekend?

WOM was not that great and the MCU was a pretty frontloaded/fan-heavy franchise at that point. Civil War which got a lot better reviews and was much better liked by fans still couldn't get good drops. I'm not saying that the fight caused it to miss the OW record or anything like that, but it definitely had an effect on the weekend. I mean IW which had much higher levels of fan rush still managed a 219 FSS off of a 67 million Friday. Ultron's FSS at that ratio would have been 186 million leading to a 214 million weekend! Obviously the ratios wouldn't be perfect (Ultron's Fri-Sun trend was worse than IW), but still the weekend was way lower than you'd think from the Friday and it didn't have BvS-like bad WOM as an excuse.

Edited November 28, 2019 by Menor

[JB33]

What kind of drop is expected for Frozen II today? O/U 40%?

[LegendaryBen]

12 minutes ago, a2k said:

Considering KO had 4.76 true day, 7 odd looks great IMO. Maybe am missing something.

 

Creed1 6.0 Wed (1.4 previews + 4.6 true Wed) + 6.5 Thu (+41% from true Wed) 

Creed2 11.6 Wed (3.7 previews + 7.9 true Wed) + 8.9 Thu (+13% from true Wed)

Knives 8.46 Wed (3.7 previews + 4.76 true Wed) + ~7 Thu (+47% from true Wed)

 

6.5 would be +36.5% from true Wed.

You’re math is right. It’s Thursday increase vs. True Wednesday won’t go low like Creed 2 since it was a sequel.
 

 

[narniadis]

34 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What kind of drop is expected for Frozen II today? O/U 40%?

Looks like just over 40% from what Jedi shared. Little heavy but again not out of normal behavior, especially given how much higher Tues-Wed were in comparison to the past. It pretty much does seal the weekend under 90m unless it has an absolutely abnormal for the type of film behavior Friday / Saturday.

 

Edit to say.... I am not a negative nancy lol would love love love to see it hit 100m for this weekend, just know that data doesnt back it up. So fingers crossed, maybe all patterns can be broken 😁

Edited November 28, 2019 by narniadis

[narniadis]

I am looking forward to seeing Knives Out tonight.... but its nice to see my earlier warning about frontloading being more closely accurate. Still doubt it hits 7m today. 

[LegendaryBen]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

I am looking forward to seeing Knives Out tonight.... but its nice to see my earlier warning about frontloading being more closely accurate. Still doubt it hits 7m today. 

Enjoy the movie! You will love it!

[ThomasNicole]

With 6.5-7M for KO i doubt it’ll make less than $ 40M

 

Probably more like $ 45M or slighty more considering it should do very well on The weekend

[Felandria]

Disney Springs had to scramble, on Tuesday night they only had one screen for Knives Out for this weekend, by early Wednesday they cleared out another screens worth of shows.

[narniadis]

6 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With 6.5-7M for KO i doubt it’ll make less than $ 40M

 

Probably more like $ 45M or slighty more considering it should do very well on The weekend

40-41 would be pushing it, be optimal highs if its stays in the 6.5-7 range.  Friday will go up around 60% flat or down on Saturday -5% and then -40% on Sunday just looking at normal behavior. Next to the Superbowl and if Christmas Eve / Halloween fall on a Sunday this coming Sunday is one of the worst of the year for holds do to all the travel that takes place. 

[LegendaryBen]

 

 

33 minutes ago, narniadis said:

40-41 would be pushing it, be optimal highs if its stays in the 6.5-7 range.  Friday will go up around 60% flat or down on Saturday -5% and then -40% on Sunday just looking at normal behavior. Next to the Superbowl and if Christmas Eve / Halloween fall on a Sunday this coming Sunday is one of the worst of the year for holds do to all the travel that takes place. 

Assuming KO gets $6.5m, it won't get a low increase like Creed 2 since it was a sequel. Unbreakable back in 2000 had a low Friday increase (38%) despite a fantastic Thursday increase (31%) because it had bad WOM. Creed 1's 80% increase makes more sense since its strong WOM is line with it. This isn't based on a story or a sequel.

 

If it follows Creed 1, it will open very close to $29.6m in its 3-day portion for a total of $44.6m.

If it follows Creed 2, it will open with $26.2m for a total of $41.2m.

If it follows Unbreakable, it will open with $22.1m for a total of $37.1m.

 

Even if it opens to similar Creed 2's multiplier, it will still get to $100m domestically. Think of it this way, it was only tracking $22-25m in its 5-day portion a month ago. It could've been worse. It doesn't need to get to $100m for it to be a success since its budget was just $40m.

 

As for the other holdovers:

Frozen 2 will get to $450m even if that Thursday number holds. 500m is in play but that would require good holds against tougher competition.

 

Ford vs Ferrari recovered very well yesterday and will get to $100m, but Charlie's Angels is looking at another 60% drop (despite only losing 300 theaters) and will easily miss $20m. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped 80%+ next weekend.

 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood could be doing much better (Luckily, it only cost $25m). Sony is definitely counting down until Jumanji 2: The Next Level and Little Women release.

 

Playing with Fire is quietly doing okay and should pass $50m. Midway will pass that mark this weekend.

Edited November 28, 2019 by LegendaryBen

[BadAtGender]

F2 could take the OW multi crown from WW for films above 100m opening. 

[ThomasNicole]

32 minutes ago, narniadis said:

40-41 would be pushing it, be optimal highs if its stays in the 6.5-7 range.  Friday will go up around 60% flat or down on Saturday -5% and then -40% on Sunday just looking at normal behavior. Next to the SIuperbowl and if Christmas Eve / Halloween fall on a Sunday this coming Sunday is one of the worst of the year for holds do to all the travel that takes place. 

I’m using Creed as comparisson (around 44M following it), but i’m Happy with 40-41

 

Now it’s all About legs which i think it’ll be great

[Cap]

1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Would have hit it if not for the Mayweather-Pacquiao fight. 

[xiazhi]

1 hour ago, Menor said:

WOM was not that great and the MCU was a pretty frontloaded/fan-heavy franchise at that point. Civil War which got a lot better reviews and was much better liked by fans still couldn't get good drops. I'm not saying that the fight caused it to miss the OW record or anything like that, but it definitely had an effect on the weekend. I mean IW which had much higher levels of fan rush still managed a 219 FSS off of a 67 million Friday. Ultron's FSS at that ratio would have been 186 million leading to a 214 million weekend! Obviously the ratios wouldn't be perfect (Ultron's Fri-Sun trend was worse than IW), but still the weekend was way lower than you'd think from the Friday and it didn't have BvS-like bad WOM as an excuse.

Civil war was advertised as an avengers movie but the real story was focused on Cap. It got a higher opening than it should get.

[misafeco]

13 minutes ago, ElsaRoc said:

F2 could take the OW multi crown from WW for films above 100m opening. 

Shrek 2 is the winner when it comes to OW/DOM total multi, although it opened on a Wednesday. 4x multi is incredibly hard to achieve. It would mean over 521M in the case of Frozen II.