RealLyre Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 technically 1917 could pull a Gravity and stop at director since that tied for the PGA in 2013 with 12 Years A Slave, but I'm not sure what could upset it at this point, Hollywood seems to be underperforming. maybe if Parasite wins SAG tonight. while Gravity missed a screenplay nomination, it did get an acting nod (probably has to do cus it's Sandra Bullock). 1917 still has the edge over it with that screenplay nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichWS Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Yeah, it feels like 1917 is winning Picture and Director now. Throw in Score, Cinematography, Production Design and one or both of the Sounds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 can maybe win visual effects as well. that usually goes to the most awards friendly film in the line-up and everyone goofed on the irishman's visuals. 1917 can win like 8 oscars. first real sweep in a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 17 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: can maybe win visual effects as well. that usually goes to the most awards friendly film in the line-up and everyone goofed on the irishman's visuals. 1917 can win like 8 oscars. first real sweep in a while. picture, director, 2 sound, cinematography and VFX. that's 6 it's likely to win. I think score will go for Joker (yes I know this was going to be Newman's overdue Oscar after 14 nominations but I doubt Joker would go home with only 1 win and the score is really good) & production design for Hollywood. Mad Max & La La Land won 6. most before that was Gravity with 7 and Slumdog Millionaire with 8 from the past 10 years. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 46 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: can maybe win visual effects as well. that usually goes to the most awards friendly film in the line-up and everyone goofed on the irishman's visuals. 1917 can win like 8 oscars. first real sweep in a while. That's really not how it works. The award usually goes for the most innovative use of visual effects (it was even called "best achievement in Visual Effects" before). Just looking back at the last few winners, First Man won for the Moon scene, BR 2049 for that holographic sex scene, The Jungle Book for its animal visual effects, Ex Machina for Vikander's character's CGI (espescially for looking so good on such a low budget), Interstellar for the Black Hole VFX. 1917 doesn't really have a big enough hook for it to win. Edited January 19, 2020 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 13 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: That's really not how it works. The award usually goes for the most innovative use of visual effects (it was even called "best achievement in Visual Effects" before). Just looking back at the last few winners, First Man won for the Moon scene, BR 2049 for that holographic sex scene, The Jungle Book for its animal visual effects, Ex Machina for Vikander's character's CGI (espescially for looking so good on such a low budget), Interstellar for the Black Hole VFX. 1917 doesn't really have a big enough hook for it to win. i wouldn't call half of that stuff innovative. i think you've overthought it. i just think they're allergic to franchise films. Edited January 19, 2020 by CoolioD1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 16 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: i wouldn't call most of that stuff innovative. i think you've overthought it. i just think they're allergic to franchise films. Doing the moon scene without green screens but with LED screens is absolutely an innovative technique and something more movies will start using, BR 2049's holographic sex scene was more complex than the CGI from any of the other nominees, The Jungle Book's VFX was a big step forward towards photorealistic animation, Ex Machina wasn't really innovative (which is why that was one of the more surprising wins) but creating a human like body that looks extremely real with the kind of budget Ex Machina is amazing, Interstellar's Black hole VFX helped scientists visualise black holes and helped with black hole research. I don't think I'm overthinking it. The yearly Oscar VFX bake-off does a really good job of showing why the winners of the category win. I think it's just a coincidence that franchise films don't win stuff (outside of the Planet of the Apes films, which recent franchise films actually have achieved anything new with CGI)? Edited January 19, 2020 by lorddemaxus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) Visual Effects usually goes to the movie that is a Best Picture nominee or is the closest to one. Only times in the past decade that hasn't really panned out was 2015 when Ex Machina won over three BP nominees and the biggest movie of all time, but even that had a Screenplay nomination so there was clearly above the line support for it. The Jungle Book year after that was a year in which none of the movies nominated were in the running for above the line support so they easily went with the most "groundbreaking" work. Edited January 19, 2020 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) maybe the vfx branch thinks like that but i'm sure the majority of voters didn't think "ah yes i must vote for first man for the innovative use of LED effects" but rather "oh right, the damien chazelle movie? it's got space stuff in it. eh sure" or "blade runner looked pretty cool i guess" or "Hugo! that was a good movie." Edited January 19, 2020 by CoolioD1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 14 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: maybe the vfx branch thinks like that but i'm sure the majority of voters didn't think "ah yes i must vote for first man for the innovative use of LED effects" but rather "oh right, the damien chazelle movie? it's got space stuff in it. eh sure" or "blade runner looked pretty cool i guess" or "Hugo! that was a good movie." I have a feeling that the VFX branch might have more influence than that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 (edited) 7 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: I have a feeling that the VFX branch might have more influence than that. there's 450 members of the vfx branch which is just over 5% of the total membership. one of the most mistreated professions in the industry don't nobody in the other branches give a fuck what they think. Edited January 19, 2020 by CoolioD1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: there's 450 members of the vfx branch which is just over 5% of the total membership. one of the most mistreated professions in the industry don't nobody in the other branches give a fuck what they think. I guess so but the movie that seems to get the best reactions at the VFX bake-off usually seem to win. Maybe it's just a coincidence. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 19, 2020 Share Posted January 19, 2020 Just now, lorddemaxus said: I guess so but the movie that seems to get the best reactions at the VFX bake-off usually seem to win. Maybe it's just a coincidence. probably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 All the actor winners (Phoenix, Zellweger, Pitt, Dern) were expected. Parasite win probably makes it a Parasite vs 1917 race but I'm gonna lean towards 1917 for now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Said this in the SAG live feed thread but I feel like we're heading the direction of a Parasite Picture/1917 Director split. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 sound editing awards are on right now, expecting 1917 to sweep. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webslinger Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 Yeah, that Parasite win at SAG has me excited about the potential of eking out a victory on Oscar night too. For what it's worth, I kinda see similar shades to Spotlight/Revenant and Moonlight/La La Land, where 1917 could pick up Director as recognition of its technical accomplishments but miss out on Picture. We'll see. And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's chances at a Picture win, dwindling though they were before losing SAG Ensemble, look like they're officially gone. I'm still pretty surprised that a Tarantino film that basically worships movies didn't just walk straight to Best Picture and Director wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 7 minutes ago, Webslinger said: And Once Upon a Time in Hollywood's chances at a Picture win, dwindling though they were before losing SAG Ensemble, look like they're officially gone. I'm still pretty surprised that a Tarantino film that basically worships movies didn't just walk straight to Best Picture and Director wins. Honestly it's probably the same reasoning as to why La La Land ended up not winning more than any of the silly backlash it faced that season. Both films being love letters to classic Hollywood/movies that seemed perfectly calibrated to win everything to the point where that was too predictable of an outcome (and the Academy wanting to reward something new for a change). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RealLyre Posted January 20, 2020 Share Posted January 20, 2020 still think 1917 will win the Oscar for sound, Dunkirk won there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted January 26, 2020 Share Posted January 26, 2020 (edited) edit nvm oops Edited January 26, 2020 by WrathOfHan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
