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Weekend Thread: Actuals - Jumanji 2 $59.25M | Frozen 2 $19.07M | Knives Out $9.14M | Richard Jewell $4.68M | Black Christmas $4.24M

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Hindsite is always a wonderful thing, but with SW opening next week, it should take some of the wind out of Jumanji, although both should do fine over the holidays, but U'm wondering if this was the right time to release it.  With a 60 mill or less opening, a 5X gets it close to 300.  Could it have done more if they released it on a different weekend Frozen II kind of prevented that as well so I guess this was as good a weekend as any.  But still wondering what the impact SW will have on it.

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2 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

4.85x legs take to $300mn. @a2k how probable that is.

The films releasing a week before Xmas drop in high teens or low 20s. 

20% drop on Sunday gives $18.8mn Sunday & $61.7mn Weekend.

Last year drops weren't that generous https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2018/12/16

Sequel factor, 2nd weekend competition and reception will decide how much below ITSV's 5.37x does JUM3 end up.

 

60 ow

30 mon-thu

26 2nd weekend (-57%) // ITSV was -53%

5.5-6.0x the 2nd weekend more // ITSV added 7.6x more

= 259-272

 

27.5-28 2nd weekend, correspondingly better Mon-Thu preceding that, and adding 6-6.5x that needed for 300 chances imo.

 

Edited by a2k
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~260 run guess for JUM3

 

Weekday Date Gross % Hold Cume    
Fri 13 Dec 19 19.4   19.4    
Sat 14 Dec 19 23.1 19.1 42.5    
Sun 15 Dec 19 16.5 -28.6 59.0 59 weekend1
Mon 16 Dec 19 5.8 -64.8 64.8    
Tue 17 Dec 19 9.3 60.3 74.1    
Wed 18 Dec 19 5.9 -36.6 80.0    
Thu 19 Dec 19 4.6 -22.0 84.6 25.6 mon-thu
Fri 20 Dec 19 7 52.2 91.6    
Sat 21 Dec 19 9.6 37.1 101.2    
Sun 22 Dec 19 8.4 -12.5 109.6 25 weekend2


25 2nd weekend is is 57.6% drop.

 

A good recover from SW9 effect,

109.6 + 25*6.0x = 260 // ITSV added 7.6x the 2nd weekend which didn't face as heavy competition.

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59 minutes ago, a2k said:

-snip-

How too good to be true is this scenario

Spoiler

Date Day Gross % +/- YD / LW* GTD Week Change
13 Dec 2019 Fri $19.40     $19.40    
14 Dec 2019 Sat $23.28 20.00%   $42.68    
15 Dec 2019 Sun $18.16 -22.00%   $60.84 $60.84  
16 Dec 2019 Mon $8.17 -55.00%   $69.01    
17 Dec 2019 Tue $11.85 45.00%   $80.86    
18 Dec 2019 Wed $7.11 -40.00%   $87.97    
19 Dec 2019 Thu $6.04 -15.00%   $94.01 $94.01  
20 Dec 2019 Fri $9.37 55.00% -51.72% $103.38    
21 Dec 2019 Sat $12.18 30.00% -47.70% $115.55    
22 Dec 2019 Sun $10.35 -15.00% -43.00% $125.90 $31.89 -47.58%
23 Dec 2019 Mon $7.24 -30.00% -11.34% $133.15    
24 Dec 2019 Tue $6.88 -5.00% -41.91% $140.03    
25 Dec 2019 Wed $11.01 60.00% 54.90% $151.04    
26 Dec 2019 Thu $13.21 20.00% 118.68% $164.25 $70.25 -25.28%
27 Dec 2019 Fri $12.55 -5.00% 34.03% $176.81    
28 Dec 2019 Sat $13.18 5.00% 8.26% $189.99    
29 Dec 2019 Sun $10.55 -20.00% 1.89% $200.53 $36.28 13.76%
30 Dec 2019 Mon $8.12 -23.00% 12.08% $208.65    
31 Dec 2019 Tue $8.53 5.00% 23.88% $217.18    
1 Jan 2020 Wed $11.08 30.00% 0.65% $228.26    
2 Jan 2020 Thu $6.10 -45.00% -53.87% $234.36 $70.10 -0.20%

 

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12 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

How too good to be true is this scenario

  Hide contents

 

Spoiler

 

Date Day Gross % +/- YD / LW* GTD Week Change
13 Dec 2019 Fri $19.40     $19.40    
14 Dec 2019 Sat $23.28 20.00%   $42.68    
15 Dec 2019 Sun $18.16 -22.00%   $60.84 $60.84  
16 Dec 2019 Mon $8.17 -55.00%   $69.01    
17 Dec 2019 Tue $11.85 45.00%   $80.86    
18 Dec 2019 Wed $7.11 -40.00%   $87.97    
19 Dec 2019 Thu $6.04 -15.00%   $94.01 $94.01  
20 Dec 2019 Fri $9.37 55.00% -51.72% $103.38    
21 Dec 2019 Sat $12.18 30.00% -47.70% $115.55    
22 Dec 2019 Sun $10.35 -15.00% -43.00% $125.90 $31.89 -47.58%
23 Dec 2019 Mon $7.24 -30.00% -11.34% $133.15    
24 Dec 2019 Tue $6.88 -5.00% -41.91% $140.03    
25 Dec 2019 Wed $11.01 60.00% 54.90% $151.04    
26 Dec 2019 Thu $13.21 20.00% 118.68% $164.25 $70.25 -25.28%
27 Dec 2019 Fri $12.55 -5.00% 34.03% $176.81    
28 Dec 2019 Sat $13.18 5.00% 8.26% $189.99    
29 Dec 2019 Sun $10.55 -20.00% 1.89% $200.53 $36.28 13.76%
30 Dec 2019 Mon $8.12 -23.00% 12.08% $208.65    
31 Dec 2019 Tue $8.53 5.00% 23.88% $217.18    
1 Jan 2020 Wed $11.08 30.00% 0.65% $228.26    
2 Jan 2020 Thu $6.10 -45.00% -53.87% $234.36 $70.10 -0.20%

 

 

 

those numbers and trending would leave it on track for close to 350 and pull off an aquaman. would love if that happens.

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5 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Everyone of us thinking, how SW:TRS will affect Jumanji, but I think it should be asked otherwise. How much Jumanji will be taking from TRS as WOM seems good with Jumanji.

That was the question with the first film too, people continue to underestimate Jumanji. 

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13 minutes ago, a2k said:

those numbers and trending would leave it on track for close to 350 and pull off an aquaman. would love if that happens.

yeah, I continued it till Feb 1st Week, and that's when it hit $300mn. Here's link (if you wanna continue filling it here, request access from you email).

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41 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

It’s pretty impressive how each Jumanji-film increased in terms of OW.

 

Jumanji 1 (1995) = $11M

Jumanji 2 (2017) = $36M

Jumanji 3 (2019) = $50-60M?

J2 opened on a Wednesday, so OW could've been higher somewhat. Still, a healthy increase this time.

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1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

So a drop of over $100m domestic (a quarter of the audience) from the first film is “amazing” and “fantastic”?
 

I think it’s kind of alarming really. 

Why would it be alarming?

 

The last Jumanji was an unexpected surprise hit. It's perfectly normal for a franchise to come down afterwards. It happens all the time. Look at The Dark Knight and The Dark Knight Rises. There was a drop of 87m or so domestically. No one considered that to be a failure or alarming. When you move way past even your wildest imaginations, there is only one way left, and that is down. After all, you reached an audience that normally wouldn't have come, and there are bound to be plenty of people who either didn't like that movie or simply do not get hyped for another one.

 

And who knows, the holidays are still to come. It's not like 300m is a fixed limit that couldn't possibly be beaten under any circumstances.

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