Weekend Thread: Actuals - Jumanji 2 $59.25M | Frozen 2 $19.07M | Knives Out $9.14M | Richard Jewell $4.68M | Black Christmas $4.24M

[sfran43]

 

[pepsa]

23 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

 

Pretty good, yeh. But people are calling this “fantastic”. 

Yeh, isn’t that technically the biggest drop off for a sequel, ever? 
 

75% would be good. What I was replying to earlier were posts about totals in the $200m range. 
 

 

Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see if people are still using “fantastic” and “amazing” if Wonder Woman 1984 does $300m domestic.... that’s all. 

To be honest I do think there is a difference in a movie like Jumanji (not nearly as known as Wonder Woman). And the facts that Jumanji had on of the most insane leggy runs in the past decade makes it a lot harder to replicate for the second one.

Also I think it helped Jumanji that untill 2 days before the release most tracking and people on this forum wrote the movie off so maybe they prepared them selves for $35m OW and sub $200m DOM and if so $60m OW does sound very good. So I think expecation plays a huge role in members here saying it good / great / amzing or meh / bad / terible, most of the time we are not really objective.

 

So yeah you have a point if WW does $300m almost nobody will call it amazing. The comicbook hype doesn't help in this case.

[Spidey Freak]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Very true. Frozen 2 will definitely pass it’s predecessor’s $1.276B WW, and settle for the second highest grossing animated film WW of all time, which is still very good for kind & sweet Anna & Elsa.

Is that terrible "live action remake" counted as an animated film? Disney itself is not entering it in animation awards.

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Very true. Frozen 2 will definitely pass it’s predecessor’s $1.276B WW, and settle for the second highest grossing animated film WW of all time, which is still very good for kind & sweet Anna & Elsa.

Frozen franchise will have the 1st and 2nd highest grossing WW animation, TYVM. The member of the Disney Live-Action Reimaginings brand can show itself right out. 

Edited December 15, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[sfran43]

This is awful!😬

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

Sunday presales have Jumanji missing 60mn. Let's see how are walkins.

[1Robert1]

There was 12 movies in december who had opening between 44.3-72 mln opening all of them except Sherlock had at least 4x. So i would say that 240 mln for jumanji is locked. Most likely 275 mln we will see if it can do better. 

[MrFanaticGuy34]

6 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Is that terrible "live action remake" counted as an animated film? Disney itself is not entering it in animation awards.

Well, since there’s no human characters in Favreau’s TLK, and that most of the movie are computer-animated, it does count to some other people. Even BOM & Wikipedia counts that as an animated film.

 

That $1.6B WW for TLK wasn’t for nothing, IMO.

Edited December 15, 2019 by MrFanaticGuy34

[filmlover]

With both Richard Jewell and Black Christmas flopping it looks like we've found our casualties (ala Mortal Engines, Welcome to Marwen) of the holidays this year. Coming up among non-lightsaber releases everything (Little Women, Spies in Disguise, Cats, Bombshell) should do different levels of acceptable business, while Uncut Gems should do fine even if its wide expansion isn't as great as its limited start.

[filmlover]

7 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

Is that terrible "live action remake" counted as an animated film? Disney itself is not entering it in animation awards.

The Golden Globes just nominated it in Animated Feature even though it wasn't submitted there lmao.

[TwoMisfits]

Feels really good to have correctly predicted the Jumanji weekend the week before presales jumped so fast:)...

 

Now, hopefully, my week before prediction of $300M+ comes true, too...seems like it's getting good to great WOM and had an opening that should make it very possible.  Crowd pleasers at Xmas tend to go huge - we'll see if this follows its last version and does the same:)...

[titanic2187]

35 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

This is following Creed 2015 closely. 

Knives Out	Creed
Opening Weekend	$26,769,548 / $41,414,093	$29,632,823 / $42,117,349
2nd Weekend	$14,216,723 / $63,553,214	$14,989,303 / $64,586,859
3rd Weekend	$9,250,000 / $78,927,248	$10,121,137 / $79,322,155
4th Weekend	- / -	$5,013,055 / $87,828,128
5th Weekend	- / -	$4,386,198 / $96,081,765
6th Weekend	- / -	$3,737,106 / $103,122,271
7th Weekend	- / -	$1,514,260 / $105,605,754
8th Weekend	- / -	$1,114,581 / $107,279,184

[TwoMisfits]

5 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Everyone of us thinking, how SW:TRS will affect Jumanji, but I think it should be asked otherwise. How much Jumanji will be taking from TRS as WOM seems good with Jumanji.

I agree...I said a week ago that this movie could dig into those post-Xmas "what are we gonna see" family outings if it was good b/c families don't want drama at Xmas...and it's still to be seen if Star Wars will bring drama...but we now know Jumanji won't and will bring nothing but fun:)...

[Cmasterclay]

Wow, I thought Richard Jewell was supposed to stop things from bombing.....

[Menor the Destroyer]

36 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Well, since there’s no human characters in Favreau’s TLK, and that most of the movie are computer-animated, it does count to some other people. Even BOM & Wikipedia counts that as an animated film.

 

That $1.6B WW for TLK wasn’t for nothing, IMO.

I think it's not fair to count TLK as animation for record purposes as it didn't suffer from the same stigma that a lot of people give to animated films.

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

I would probably divide things into 3 separate categories of live-action, photorealistic CGI, and animation. Of course the middle category would be extremely barren right now. As it sort of straddles the line I think it’s more fair to count it in the larger pool of competition.

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

1	N	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pict…	$60,100,000		4,227		$14,218	$60,100,000	1
2	(1)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$19,182,000	-45%	4,078	-270	$4,704	$366,542,072	4
3	(2)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$9,250,000	-35%	3,413	-48	$2,710	$78,927,248	3
4	N	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$5,000,000		2,502		$1,998	$5,000,000	1
5	N	Black Christmas	Universal	$4,420,000		2,625		$1,684	$4,420,000	1
6	(3)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Cent…	$4,143,000	-38%	2,895	-851	$1,431	$98,247,794	5
7	(4)	Queen & Slim	Universal	$3,600,000	-46%	1,560	-155	$2,308	$33,174,870	3
8	(5)	A Beautiful Day in th…	Sony Pict…	$3,355,000	-35%	2,855	-636	$1,175	$49,329,891	4
9	(6)	Dark Waters	Focus Fea…	$2,000,000	-50%	2,110	+98	$948	$8,889,174	4
10	(7)	21 Bridges	STX Enter…	$1,190,000	-58%	1,533	-932	$776	$26,361,366	4
11	(9)	Midway	Lionsgate	$880,000	-54%	1,419	-681	$620	$55,219,847	6
12	(8)	Playing with Fire	Paramount…	$670,182	-67%	1,381	-872	$485	$43,265,000	6
13	(13)	Parasite	Neon	$632,000	-10%	306	-27	$2,065	$20,356,718	10
-	(11)	Joker	Warner Bros.	$465,000	-54%	553	-403	$841	$333,035,374	11
-	(12)	Harriet	Focus Fea…	$450,000	-46%	648	-352	$694	$41,773,165	7
-	(10)	Last Christmas	Universal	$450,000	-56%	616	-644	$731	$34,390,840	6
-	(15)	Jojo Rabbit	Fox Searc…	$375,000	-33%	400	-179	$938	$19,981,764	9
-	N	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$312,100		4		$78,025	$312,100	1
-	(20)	Honey Boy	Amazon St…	$235,776	-46%	387	-73	$609	$2,625,720	6
-	(16)	Maleficent: Mistress …	Walt Disney	$185,000	-65%	345	-383	$536	$112,741,631	9
-	(14)	PLAYMOBIL	STX Enter…	$170,000	-74%	1,458	-879	$117	$992,723	2
-	(23)	Terminator: Dark Fate	Paramount…	$129,730	-60%	250	-181	$519	$62,074,000	7
-	(32)	Abominable	Universal	$77,000	-22%	159	-15	$484	$60,412,095	12
-	(26)	En Brazos de un Asesino	Lionsgate	$63,000	-72%	160	n/c	$394	$368,920	2
-	N	A Hidden Life	Fox Searc…	$52,000		5		$10,400	$52,000	1
-	(42)	63 Up	BritBox	$43,250	+110%	20	+18	$2,163	$100,020	3
-	(31)	Countdown	STX Enter…	$40,000	-65%	110	-67	$364	$25,517,976	8
-	(38)	Downton Abbey	Focus Fea…	$23,000	-52%	59	-58	$390	$96,838,545	13

[Justin4125]

4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Ok, so if Jum3 only does an average 3x from these markets, that brings it to 323.5 OS (3x would be low considering the deflated OW to legs ratio of this release date and the backloaded nature of the film). Anyways, add in Brazil, Australia, Italy, HK, Colombia and the rest of markets yet to open, and that should bring it to a conservative ~400m OS. That gives us something of a floor of around 650m (with 250m dom) with the very real possibility of 800m given its WOM and more typical holiday legs. Amazing, just amazing. Did not see this coming at all

 

Granted TROS could completely rain on its parade and screw this all up. Still, even "just" 650m WW would be a big win for this film

Edited December 15, 2019 by Justin4125