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sfran43

Weekend Thread: Actuals - Jumanji 2 $59.25M | Frozen 2 $19.07M | Knives Out $9.14M | Richard Jewell $4.68M | Black Christmas $4.24M

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11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I would probably divide things into 3 separate categories of live-action, photorealistic CGI, and animation. Of course the middle category would be extremely barren right now. As it sort of straddles the line I think it’s more fair to count it in the larger pool of competition.

TLK '19 was a cartoon, come on.

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JUM3 @ 213 ww

 

210 more dom (3.5x 60 weekend)

215 more os (2.5x 86 weekend)

= 425 more ww

 

213 current + 425 = 638 ww (270 dom + 368 os)

 

...and feel am being conservative, very much so with 2.5x more os estimate.

700-750 ww hopefully

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Just now, MrGlass2 said:

Disney's newspeak:

"Live-action" = animation

"Finale" = sequel

"Stand-alone" = spin-off or prequel

"Saga" = movies before a "Finale"

Disney does not want TLK marketed/considered as animation at all. That was the whole gimmick. They wanted people to consider this as a live action film. The whole "is it animation debate" is coming from people outside of Disney.

 

I would say while yes, it is animated, it doesnt belong in the animation category. If something is made to look life-like, its no longer an "animated" movie. I think "animation" describes a style, not just how the film is made (hell, many FX heavy movies are essentially animated anyways)

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11 minutes ago, a2k said:

JUM3 @ 213 ww

 

210 more dom (3.5x 60 weekend)

215 more os (2.5x 86 weekend)

= 425 more ww

 

213 current + 425 = 638 ww (270 dom + 368 os)

 

...and feel am being conservative, very much so with 2.5x more os estimate.

700-750 ww hopefully

Wait... this is the... third one? I thought there were only two?

 

Do you know what were the expected drops for next weekend and if they are much different now?

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4 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

Disney does not want TLK marketed/considered as animation at all. That was the whole gimmick. They wanted people to consider this as a live action film. The whole "is it animation debate" is coming from people outside of Disney.

 

I would say while yes, it is animated, it doesnt belong in the animation category. If something is made to look life-like, its no longer an "animated" movie. I think "animation" describes a style, not just how the film is made (hell, many FX heavy movies are essentially animated anyways)

I also do not consider TLK an animated movie. There is a very clear distinction between a real animated film and a photorealistic one. It may change though in the future when CGI animation will reach another level.

 

From imdb:

The Lion King (2019) - Animation, Adventure, Drama

The Jungle Book (2016) - Adventure, Drama, Family

 

Mowgli makes all the difference! :P

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17 minutes ago, I Am said:

Wait... this is the... third one? I thought there were only two?

 

Do you know what were the expected drops for next weekend and if they are much different now?


First one came out in ‘95, I think, and had Robin Williams as the lead. 

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46 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Welcome to Jungle

Germany $2,337,433

United Kingdom $10,895,975

Russia/CIS 5,002,252

Spain $1,453,095

South Korea $5,204,158

India $3,228,599

 

Seems like Next level is doing better. So why your predictions are so conservative?

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5 minutes ago, 1Robert1 said:

Welcome to Jungle

Germany $2,337,433

United Kingdom $10,895,975

Russia/CIS 5,002,252

Spain $1,453,095

South Korea $5,204,158

India $3,228,599

 

Seems like Next level is doing better. So why your predictions are so conservative?

You're not asking me, but still slightly more conservative estimates owe primarily to 1) its earlier release date (so it'll leg it out following the second weekend drop as opposed to during its first and second week, as most school holidays are in Jan) 2) It being a sequel to a breakout hit (typically means lower legs) and 3) it coming before TROS, whereas the first one opened after TLJ (which will likely lead to higher OW/lower legs, whereas last one had a deflated OW/bigger legs)

Still I think ~700m+ is feasible and is a massive success for this from the ashes franchise

Edited by Justin4125
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22 minutes ago, junkshop36 said:


First one came out in ‘95, I think, and had Robin Williams as the lead. 

 

20 minutes ago, ChiSoxRox said:

 Counting the original Jumanji from 1995. If you include Zathura from 2005, it's the fourth film in the franchise.

Oooooooh, got it. I haven't seen the one from a couple years ago, so I thought it was a remake, not a sequel.

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Oh, now people claim how lame Favreau’s TLK is now and always will be? 🤦🏻‍♀️

 

Like if we haven’t enough anti-TLK (2019) by now (which btw is already too much it can bear ever since it’s July release). 🙄

 

I’ve heard no one else being positive about it as of lately, and i have just recently seen the film on DVD in multiple viewings since i bought it...and been very positive to it.

 

Not saying that those who didn’t like it are always wrong, I kinda understand those whose passionately love the original. But come on! There’s no movie-law that says no one’s allowed to like Jon Favreau’s TLK. That’s just begging for hypocrisy. 🙎🏻‍♀️

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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Finally catching up after a busy day.... OMG love that opening for Jumanji :D

 

my 5x (50/250) expectation should still hold up which makes 300m a legitimate option with upper tier legs for this size opening in December. Even if the weekend adjusts down to 59.8 or so (as Jedi Jat points out he isn't sure of the hold at this point in time) its still quite likely.

Anything over 275m puts Jumanji 2(or 3 if you see it that way) in the same arena of holds such as Fallen Kingdom and Ultron for films over 400m. it needs 340m to hold as well as TDKR did from TDK. The 270m arena also keeps it in the same hold from predecessor as Home Alone 2 and NATM 2 for older films in a different market. All in its a great retention considering it only needs to go up :)

If it gets crazy legs (for a sequel) it could have a hold like Spider-man 2 or even Increase (LOL) but that would be legs such as never seen by a sequel this time of year with such a large opening....

 

All this really says is that the next 18 days are going to be great to watch as they are every year at this time.

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Overall great for Jumanji though its likely to fall below 60m with actuals. But all the doom and gloom about it crashing after the china OW did not happen. It should be the counter programming to SW9 through the holidays. I think it will gross 300m domestic.

 

F2 lost most of Imax/PLF and so that had a tiny impact in its hold, but the drop is not great. I am thinking it will drop another 40% next weekend(helped by very soft sunday drop). It will then benefit over following 2 weeks but will fizzle out post that.

 

Only Jumanji and F2 will hit double digit next weekend among holdovers and so SW9 will gain more screens/showtimes. We will know by tuesday for sure.

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3 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Overall great for Jumanji though its likely to fall below 60m with actuals. But all the doom and gloom about it crashing after the china OW did not happen. It should be the counter programming to SW9 through the holidays. I think it will gross 300m domestic.

 

F2 lost most of Imax/PLF and so that had a tiny impact in its hold, but the drop is not great. I am thinking it will drop another 40% next weekend(helped by very soft sunday drop). It will then benefit over following 2 weeks but will fizzle out post that.

 

Only Jumanji and F2 will hit double digit next weekend among holdovers and so SW9 will gain more screens/showtimes. We will know by tuesday for sure.

Even with good / great WOM, Frozen is behaving exactly like a female skewing family film that opened large. It will barely get 3.5x at this point even with the holiday - I would imagine if Spies in Disguise manages to take off at all, it only cuts into F2 further.

 

I had hoped my original 440m / +10% was going to be low, but it appears its going to be close - way to close to not passing Shrek 2 :(

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11 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

Oh, now people claim how lame Favreau’s TLK is now and always will be? 🤦🏻‍♀️

 

Like if we haven’t enough anti-TLK (2019) by now (which btw is already too much it can bear ever since it’s July release). 🙄

 

I’ve heard no one else being positive about it as of lately, and i have just recently seen the film on DVD in multiple viewings since i bought it...and been very positive to it.

 

Not saying that those who didn’t like it are always wrong, I kinda understand those whose passionately love the original. But come on! There’s no movie-law that says no one’s allowed to like Jon Favreau’s TLK. That’s just begging for hypocrisy. 🙎🏻‍♀️

Who is saying no one is allowed to like the Lion King remake? There's a difference between that and no one actually liking it because it just didn't do it for them.

Edited by MCKillswitch123
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4 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Even with good / great WOM, Frozen is behaving exactly like a female skewing family film that opened large. It will barely get 3.5x at this point even with the holiday - I would imagine if Spies in Disguise manages to take off at all, it only cuts into F2 further.

 

I had hoped my original 440m / +10% was going to be low, but it appears its going to be close - way to close to not passing Shrek 2 :(

Very good prediction from you. But F2 will do very well during holidays just like it did during thanksgiving week. I dont see spies in disguise having a huge impact. is it going to be that big?

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8 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Who is saying no one is allowed to like the Lion King remake? There's a difference between that and no one actually liking it because it just didn't do it for them.

Well, the ones that gave it a D & F for one. They won’t be likely to understand the supporters. I guess you’re one (the same one user i put ignore on) of those where it didn’t do it for you, right? 

Edited by MrFanaticGuy34
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