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THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

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2 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I still remember the days before TLJ release, I was excited as hell. 

I was excited to see Luke again, to know who Rey actually is. To see Snoke as menacing villian. 

I was ready for a wonderful send-off to Leia. 

 

But after watching TLJ, everything changed. 

The good old days when the fans were more or less united. I remember when the first leaks for that movie came out the week of release and people just didn’t believe/ hated them so much that they ran the guy who posted them off the internet. 

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I guess for me, I have a hard time understanding the mentality behind one single movie turning people completely off a series.  Like you're done and that's it, no more interest.  You've spent years and years being a fan, in many cases, literal decades being a fan, but that one movie just killed all the interest for you.

 

I don't like the prequels and I think TROS is quite a bad film, but I'm not swearing off Star Wars because I didn't like it. 

 

I just don't get it.  

 

 

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Rankings then:

1. Empire strikes back

2. Return of the Jedi

3. A New Hope

4. Revenge of the Sith

5. Rise of Skywalker

6. The Force Awakens

7. the Last Jedi

8. Attack of the Clones

9. The Phantom Menace

 

I’m not interested in the non- Episodes Star Wars content.

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6 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

One thing this OW proved is that TLJ so called 'haters' are not in minority. There are lot of people who don't like TLJ, it's not just the Internet crowd. 

 

With inflation, TLJ opening is about $230M. Skywalker at $180M would mean they hang on to 78% of the opening audience. So yes, the haters are a minority. It’s a large minority, but still not the majority or this would be opening to about $113M. 

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Just now, boomboom234 said:

We accept here that OW is based on hype right. A sequel to a movie is affected by the movie it is a sequel of. TLJ simply killed the hype of a large portion of the fan base. And Cinemascore always has been and always will be a trash way of measuring likes polling five theaters on opening day immediately after they step out of a movie is not scientific or random in the slightest. The only people who would respond are those with strong opinions and the people going that early are bound to be fans in the first place. And for a lot of people their views on a film change once it’s been given thought as well.

TROS’ OW is going to be low because it’s having a poor internal multiplier, its previews were quite high!

 

There could be multiple factors to this, one simply being it appears to have worse WoM with the GA than previous SW films based on actual surveys and not online polls on sites the GA doesn’t visit.  

 

Another (and a big one) is that TROS is releasing a week closer to Christmas than TLJ.  That’ll dilute the OW for any movie, and theoretically result in stronger legs (but again not guaranteed if WoM isn’t great).

 

CS is a fairly consistent metric you can use a comparison (better than audience ratings on review sites), there’s also that poll you see Deadline/Variety quote sometimes which shows results consistent with Cinemascore.

 

You can certainly give blame to Disney (if you even want to call it blame, TROS will still end up with pretty big numbers, just not to the same previous heights) for over saturating the market.  In the last four years TROS is the fifth Star Wars movies and there’s also a popular TV Show right before it.  It’s hard to keep up that same high demand level with that level of saturation (and something else to consider is if Disney would rather have a more moderate demand level for Star Wars that is released frequently over TFA level heights every 5-6 years)


Maybe the MCU successfully does a mass quantity release cycle but there’s still a decent amount of variance in their films success (with the films surrounding Endgame getting some inflated interest).  Plus, the MCU is a brand that’s viewed as multiple properties, you still only get a Thor/Captain America/etc. movie every 3 years.  

 

But anyways blaming TLJ and not a movie that’s getting press saying “Worst Star Wars movie in 20 years” or any of the above factors is in fact pretty dumb.  It just reads as a redditbro trying to spin a narrative that justifies their hatred toward a movie released two years ago that they can’t seem to get over.

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Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

With inflation, TLJ opening is about $230M. Skywalker at $180M would mean they hang on to 78% of the opening audience. So yes, the haters are a minority. It’s a large minority, but still not the majority or this would be opening to about $113M. 

But isn't the suggested prediction that it'll hit $175 million in its opening-weekend?

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33 minutes ago, The Panda said:


 

 

Cinemascore

The Last Jedi: A
Solo: A Star Wars Story: A-

The Rise of Skywalker: B+


Metacritic: 

The Last Jedi: 85

Solo: A Star Wars Story: 62

The Rise of Skywalker: 54

 

Blaming TLJ for the failures of other movies is pretty dumb imo!

700million fall.

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6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

With inflation, TLJ opening is about $230M. Skywalker at $180M would mean they hang on to 78% of the opening audience. So yes, the haters are a minority. It’s a large minority, but still not the majority or this would be opening to about $113M. 

You also can’t even equivocate the 22% OW audience loss to TLJ Haters not showing up.  There’s over saturation effects in general, the fact this is releasing a week closer to Christmas (which tends to dilute OWs), poor press over TROS the week prior, an indication of poor GA WoM which could hurt the Internal Multiplier after strong previews, etc.

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@The Panda

 

Clearly those surveys are wrong because according to that you're telling me that the Last Jedi was more liked than infinity War but on further reflection and endgame broke the opening weekend record by a hundred million dollars...while the tros is going to open 30 to 40 million dollars less the last jedi.

 

 

That is all the damn proof I need and frankly you have been 100% wrong about the Last Jedi was well loved by everyone apart from racist and sexist and neckbeards.

 

 The people that have been saying film had a large mainstream backlash are fully vindicated. 

 

You can't excuse yourself out of this as the numbers don't lie and frankly we were are right...

 

 You simply can admit your failure in realizing reality.

 

😁

 

 

But I fully respect that a lot of people didn't like the Last Jedi but mantpeople simply did not like we're that film went with a story...why is that so hard to believe

Edited by Lordmandeep
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the-numbers.com had a spot on prediction before previews hit.

Quote

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker is the fifth Star Wars film released by Disney and it will be the last for a few years. Solo underperformed and the studio decided it was over-saturating the market. This is probably a wise decision, especially given this film’s reviews. They are not bad for a blockbuster, but they are certainly not up to the level The Last Jedi earned. They have certainly negatively affected the film’s box office chances and there are very few people expecting the film to open with more than $200 million. In fact, I’ve seen some predictions below $150 million. That would make it the worst of the three December releases in the Disney franchise. However, it is important to remember, this would still be the fourth-highest opening weekend in December. On the high end, it could come close to $200 million over the weekend, but I think $175 million is more likely. This is still a monster hit and it will have no trouble becoming one of the biggest box office smashes of the year. It just won’t live up to original expectations.

 

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1 minute ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

700million fall.

Surely had nothing to do TFA having a zeitgeist factor that none of other movies could have, something like 500-600m in direct holiday competition following it and TLJ being the third SW film with 2 years.

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3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

TROS’ OW is going to be low because it’s having a poor internal multiplier, its previews were quite high!

 

There could be multiple factors to this, one simply being it appears to have worse WoM with the GA than previous SW films based on actual surveys and not online polls on sites the GA doesn’t visit.  

 

Another (and a big one) is that TROS is releasing a week closer to Christmas than TLJ.  That’ll dilute the OW for any movie, and theoretically result in stronger legs (but again not guaranteed if WoM isn’t great).

 

CS is a fairly consistent metric you can use a comparison (better than audience ratings on review sites), there’s also that poll you see Deadline/Variety quote sometimes which shows results consistent with Cinemascore.

 

You can certainly give blame to Disney (if you even want to call it blame, TROS will still end up with pretty big numbers, just not to the same previous heights) for over saturating the market.  In the last four years TROS is the fifth Star Wars movies and there’s also a popular TV Show right before it.  It’s hard to keep up that same high demand level with that level of saturation (and something else to consider is if Disney would rather have a more moderate demand level for Star Wars that is released frequently over TFA level heights every 5-6 years)


Maybe the MCU successfully does a mass quantity release cycle but there’s still a decent amount of variance in their films success (with the films surrounding Endgame getting some inflated interest).  Plus, the MCU is a brand that’s viewed as multiple properties, you still only get a Thor/Captain America/etc. movie every 3 years.  

 

But anyways blaming TLJ and not a movie that’s getting press saying “Worst Star Wars movie in 20 years” or any of the above factors is in fact pretty dumb.  It just reads as a redditbro trying to spin a narrative that justifies their hatred toward a movie released two years ago that they can’t seem to get over.

It’s previews were 5 million lower than TLJ despite the fact that previews typically grow especially for a movie marketed as a finale. Also everyone and their mother blamed BVS for JL opening but suddenly that line of reasoning doesn’t work here for reasons. Everyone has always said a sequel pays the price for the last movie and that is being seen here. And whatever sure this movie will make a profit but that’s not how business operates expectation and trend are everything and seriously diminishing returns with this one looking to be under RO will not be accepted by Disney and people will be fired, is that a measure of success?

 

And no CS is just not a good metric by any statistical standard it’s just not a poll it’s the paper version of an online poll. It also fails to track to interest and legs at all just expectation look the WOWS getting at C then having amazing legs as a case in point.

 

and you read as the opposite a fan of the TLJ who I’m sure has said for two years that “ the finale of Star Wars always increases” and now is looking for any narrative you can find to defend that movie. Which is fine, but at least here it’s been accepted that for a franchise on OW the amount depends on hype and this movie’s hype has been down the whole time as shown by the presales that trailed behind TLJ for months despite the fact that presales expand exponentially every year

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5 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

If it’s a $175M weekend, they held on to 76% of TLJ’s audience in terms of tickets sold. Still a long way from $113M, which is 49% of TLJ’s opening audience. 

Of course a lot of people who had issues with the Last Jedi are going to check out the rise off Skywalker

 

The issue is unlike endgame they're not going to watch this movie two to three times or drag along all their friends and family..

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3 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Surely had nothing to do TFA having a zeitgeist factor that none of other movies could have, something like 500-600m in direct holiday competition following it and TLJ being the third SW film with 2 years.

And infinity war was not? And competition is the worst fucking excuse every movie had competition Avatar had competition, so did Infinity War and TDK. For the real big movies it does not matter. 

Edited by boomboom234
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