THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Krissykins]

The franchise still has the biggest domestic hit of all time, even if it’s ending on a whimper, they still have that.  

[grey ghost]

Mixed Results...

 

PT - planned but poorly executed

ST - unplanned and poorly executed

 

Successful...

 

MCU - planned and well executed

OT - unplanned but well executed

 

So planning doesn't guarantee anything. It comes down to execution. Unless the OT is also considered well planned.

[redfirebird2008]

So we are expecting a preview number around $35-40M? 

[sfran43]

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 22	% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Disney / Lucasfilm	$183,000,000	$183,000,000	NEW
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$22,200,000	$96,700,000	-63%
Cats	Universal	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Frozen II	Disney	$11,000,000	$384,000,000	-42%
Bombshell	Lionsgate	$6,500,000	$7,000,000	NEW
Knives Out	Lionsgate	$5,700,000	$88,700,000	-38%
Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$2,400,000	$9,300,000	-49%
Ford v Ferrari	Fox	$2,300,000	$102,300,000	-44%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	Sony / Columbia	$2,000,000	$53,000,000	-39%
Queen & Slim	Universal	$1,900,000	$36,700,000	-47%

[reddevil19]

12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

So we are expecting a preview number around $35-40M? 

Judging by the tracking thread, upper 30's - low 40's would be the range indeed.

[sfran43]

Remember when...

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

3 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 22	% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Disney / Lucasfilm	$183,000,000	$183,000,000	NEW
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$22,200,000	$96,700,000	-63%
Cats	Universal	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Frozen II	Disney	$11,000,000	$384,000,000	-42%
Bombshell	Lionsgate	$6,500,000	$7,000,000	NEW
Knives Out	Lionsgate	$5,700,000	$88,700,000	-38%
Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$2,400,000	$9,300,000	-49%
Ford v Ferrari	Fox	$2,300,000	$102,300,000	-44%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	Sony / Columbia	$2,000,000	$53,000,000	-39%
Queen & Slim	Universal	$1,900,000	$36,700,000	-47%

Looks like they're seeing the same trends we are in the Tracking Thread with the low pop in last couple of days.

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

Judging by the tracking thread, upper 30's - low 40's would be the range indeed.

 

Based on the 45/220 opening for TLJ, a 35-40 preview would likely mean a weekend range of $175-195M. 

 

 

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Based on the 45/220 opening for TLJ, a 35-40 preview would likely mean a weekend range of $175-195M. 

 

 

With the reviews, we might see a lower preview/OW multiplier. I'm thinking it needs to push 45 previews to match TLK's opening.

[reddevil19]

I think that we can finally call this an event weekend - now that the TENET trailer is here.

[xiazhi]

7 hours ago, pepsa said:

For God knoww what reason Disney decided to move it to 19/12 with nation wide previews on wednesday.  They thought it would be better probably.

(It isn't).

Actually both Wed and Thur are previews

[pepsa]

9 minutes ago, xiazhi said:

Actually both Wed and Thur are previews

That makes no sense it's Thur previews had 84k showtimes, it's friday 'OD' has 50k showtimes

[WrathOfHan]

23 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

Weekend Forecast

Film	Distributor	3-Day Weekend Forecast	Projected Domestic Total through Sunday, December 22	% Change from Last Wknd
Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker	Disney / Lucasfilm	$183,000,000	$183,000,000	NEW
Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony / Columbia	$22,200,000	$96,700,000	-63%
Cats	Universal	$12,000,000	$12,000,000	NEW
Frozen II	Disney	$11,000,000	$384,000,000	-42%
Bombshell	Lionsgate	$6,500,000	$7,000,000	NEW
Knives Out	Lionsgate	$5,700,000	$88,700,000	-38%
Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$2,400,000	$9,300,000	-49%
Ford v Ferrari	Fox	$2,300,000	$102,300,000	-44%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	Sony / Columbia	$2,000,000	$53,000,000	-39%
Queen & Slim	Universal	$1,900,000	$36,700,000	-47%

That's a big drop for Jumanji. Have weekdays been poor?

[Fullbuster]

The European performance is pretty dire, unusual for the final of a trilogy...

 

Maybe the North America will buck this trend as it is its home market.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

That's a big drop for Jumanji. Have weekdays been poor?

3.45 Wed (-45%) // https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/daily/2019/12/18

 

Say 3.0 Thu (-13%)

5.75 (+92%) + 9 (+56.5%) + 7.75 (-14%) = 22.50

Thu could easily fall a little more due to previews and screen loss so can see as low as 21.5-22.0 but thinking/hoping it will make it to 23.0

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[MrGlass2]

SW almost at 60% again on RT, just in time for previews.

[Yandereprime101189]

Whatever comes after this Star Wars, I have a feeling the next trilogy will have a more unified vision.

 

I do believe people will still loudly complain, but then again, it is Star Wars so water is wet and all of that jazz.

 

I Thank God I never had a a computer when the prequel trilogy came out because I'd have lost my damn mind. I've lost enough of it with the sequel bashing, regardless of whether or not people made sense about their opinion or just doing it because views.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Yandereprime101189

[Legion Again]

BOP F2 number is straight nonsense. Will clear 13M with ease going by daily trends.

[Legion Again]

Rogue One opened at 12th on OW charts. Modern equivalent is to beat BATB at 174.75. That will be my bar for utter disaster, and it looks like it could be a close call.

[bleachella]

It's funny that it's performing weaker than TLJ in the most markets but randomly set opening day record in my country. I guess it's up to us to save the international box office, who needs China when you have Finland!