THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Mekanos]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Eeeeyy Mekanos. Long time no see.    
 

Sub 1B is possible but still unlikely. Sub RO or Joker could be pretty real, we’ll see.   
 

Yeah, the “1>3>2 for sure because that’s how it was with an N of 2 one of which was over 3 decades ago” brigade was always highly suspect.

So basically a range of 900M-1.1B is what we're working with.

 

Sub-RO alone would be crazy. Surely Disney would be upset about that.

[Legion Again]

IF things go on the lower end that many are seeing right now (Thursday midday is a bit too early for WWW-ing, to put it mildly) one of the biggest questions for me in retrospect will be how the entire BO community, on this site and others, essentially managed to convince itself that a big budget Star Wars movie doing less than 400M globally actually wasn’t a big deal and could be almost ignored in forecasting future performance. 

Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[Valonqar]

I need TROS under CM WW for my TROS Out of Top 5 WW Club. EG, TLK, F2, FFH and CM are current Top 5. Now, I'm not holding my breath cause holiday holds and Finland overperformance are a big threat but we'll see.

[Johnny Tran]

Well hopefully for this it does more than the $1.1 billion some are predicting here.   The final SW main title doing Captain Marvel and Aquaman numbers isn't what you want....  

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, Mekanos said:

So basically a range of 900M-1.1B is what we're working with.

 

Sub-RO alone would be crazy. Surely Disney would be upset about that.

 

Yes I'm sure they are upset...

 

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, Johnny Tran said:

Well hopefully for this it does more than the $1.1 billion some are predicting here.   The final SW main title doing Captain Marvel and Aquaman numbers isn't what you want....  

Unless CM and Aquaman are better movies which they totally are especially Aquaman. 

[Legion Again]

11 hours ago, Noctis said:

Can someone adjust DH2's $169m to today's prices? I can't do it on BOM - the fuckers.

 

11 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

$197mn.

 

11 hours ago, Noctis said:

Basically $200m with IMAX prices today. Would be disappointing if TROS doesn't beat that number.

OW increases faster than general gross. DH2 equivalent is an easy 260M+ in today’s market imo.

[Movie nerd]

3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes I'm sure they are upset...

 

I think they are, in vacuum it's a great number but context matters. 

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

 

OW increases faster than general gross. DH2 equivalent is an easy 260M+ in today’s market imo.

I dunno about. DH2 benefited from 3D boost before that died off in recent years. 

[Mekanos]

4 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes I'm sure they are upset...

 

There is no doubt the movie will be profitable for them. But movies in IPs like these aren't just about how much money they make by themselves. It's about trends they set and what they signal for the brand. The third movie in a trilogy making half of the first movie does not signal a particularly sustainable brand. Star Wars movies will always make money but it's clear they want the main episodes to make Avengers money and they just won't. They are going to have to recalibrate going forward if it goes sub-1B. Shareholders have expectations besides "profitable."

[MattW]

I really wish Endgame and Ep9 had switched release dates. 

 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Mekanos said:

There is no doubt the movie will be profitable for them. But movies in IPs like these aren't just about how much money they make by themselves. It's about trends they set and what they signal for the brand. The third movie in a trilogy making half of the first movie does not signal a particularly sustainable brand. Star Wars movies will always make money but it's clear they want the main episodes to make Avengers money and they just won't. They are going to have to recalibrate going forward if it goes sub-1B. Shareholders have expectations besides "profitable."

 

They should let it rest for 10+ years and develop a new story that has nothing to do with the original movies. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, MattW said:

I really wish Endgame and Ep9 had switched release dates. 

 

“I love you 3,000,000,000” does have  a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I dunno about. DH2 benefited from 3D boost before that died off in recent years. 

Yeah, probably would have done 210-230 with even higher OD share of OW - it was 54% in 2011 so 60% today? Gives 125-135 OD with 210-230 OW.

Edited December 19, 2019 by a2k

[druv10]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

“I love you 3,000,000,000” does have  a nice ring to it, doesn’t it?

No doubt, imagine out of this world OW followed by 2 weeks of juiced up weekdays through NY. Man, 3B WW would have been amazing. 

 

In reality, 2.8B WW is still crazy shocking to me. What a performance of the ages!!!

[SoSaysI]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

They should let it rest for 10+ years and develop a new story that has nothing to do with the original movies. 

I mean with the way society moves on from things these days even 3 years with no Star Wars movies might be fine but they need a new and compelling story not tied at all to the main saga or its characters in my opinion.

[Johnny Tran]

Yeah I don't think film studios are happy about diminishing returns.   A corporations's main focus to is to grow,  expand..     coming off TFA,  the Star Wars franchise seemed like a juggernaut that would last forever.   4-5 years later and it's been a lot of bad news.  

[sfran43]

 

[Nerfy]

1 hour ago, Mekanos said:

Haven't posted in here in months but I'm here for this! This is the kind of box office excitement I've been craving!

 

...Joker who? 

He's the guy in your profile picture.

[Legion Again]

21 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

I dunno about. DH2 benefited from 3D boost before that died off in recent years. 

It’s not an exact science, but just look at the OW charts at the time:

 

Comparing to Endgame and saying the equivalent would be like 400M is obviously absurd, but even removing Endgame and comparing to #2,#3, #5, #10, some kind of weighted average, etc I think you’ll consistently end up over 240M.    
 

OWs just can’t be adjusted via yearly ATP average, otherwise HP1’s OW record goes to less than CM and other such nonsense.

Edited December 19, 2019 by Arendelle Legion