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Eric Atreides

THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

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28 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Yes I'm sure they are upset...

 

woody harrelson crying GIF

They 100% will be if this happens. If it costs as much as TLJ $315m and marketing is another $250m you have $565m in costs.

Now 520m DOM => 338m revenue at 65%

And 550m OS => 209m revenue at 38%

So it would get 547m + branddeals, merch sales, dvd, streaming etc so it would 100% be profitable I agree.

 

Yet it's probably close to the last time they will get 65% for SW so they just basicly lost that privelegde on this movie.

Althought this movie will still make money TFA with these caculation would have made 1022m USD so that would mean that in 5 years time they lost half of that. TFA also only had a 250m reported buget so it had lower costs to make.

 

Next to this fact Disney bought the most popular EP in the history of the domistic markets, and in 4 years time it might just be another big franshise.

Aside from that they have comepletly lost intrest from important upcomming markets so they basicly have to hold on the developted markets for as long as possible. So they only rely on markets that are looking at possible boxoffice declines (less cinema intrest) and they failed to market it outside of the old markets.

 

This is how it played for them:

 

TFA, mega hit, insane profit it's the 3rd highest movie ever bested the second one by 33% . Disney is probably over the moon.

 

RO, Again a smash hit, a spin off that grosses over 1B ww is very good, it had a smaller budget still great DOM gross etc.

 

TLJ, well had a decent opening (DOM it was good) they probably expect a decent drop. Loosing $750m WW is hard especially because of the legs that were pretty bad. Still probably fine with this, they probably expected a bit more but they would totaly be fine with another movie around 1.3B (it would mean they have a reliable 1.3B grossing movie franshise, witch is great obviously.

 

Solo came, and it went below $400m, it lost the studio money. SW property does less than  C-tier properties. Rejected almost everywere but a lot of people didn't ask for it, not the usual release date, maybe to close to TLJ etc.. so they had excuses.

 

Well if TROS now realy does go sub 1.1B, they might lose the possibility to demand a 65% split.  It's now 3 movies that all showed worry some declines over previous instalments. It would mean that the main sage now might only do around 1B in the future, or it might go down to a 900m franshise. Thats still a lot of money but not I will spend $300m + $200m PA per movie kinda money. This would basicly mean they need stricter budgets.

 

 

And whilst a 1B dollar franshise might not be bad, for a brand that is / was super strong it's not great and definitly not what they hoped for.

Spoiler

I mean these days it's not that hard to get 1B dollar WW

 

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26 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

It’s not an exact science, but just look at the OW charts at the time:

771777-B9-911-C-49-C9-8-BD3-0-F3-BD6808-

 

Comparing to Endgame and saying the equivalent would be like 400M is obviously absurd, but even removing Endgame and comparing to #2,#3, #5, #10, some kind of weighted average, etc I think you’ll consistently end up over 240M.    
 

OWs just can’t be adjusted via yearly ATP average, otherwise HP1’s OW record goes to less than CM and other such nonsense.

 

Just saying it was boosted by 3D at the time compared to previous OW record holders. Brandon Gray's article pointed out that it was around 6th in terms of admissions on opening weekend at the time it broke the record. 

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/article/ed1820066820/

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4 minutes ago, expensiveho said:

This is giving me "BvS fanboys" flashbacks

 

Ehhh...I assure you, I'm no fanboy of the new Star Wars films. My point with that money GIF is that Disney is such a behemoth company, it really doesn't matter how much money SW9 makes. Look at the ridiculous slate of mega sized movies they have released in recent years. 

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At this point I'm reduced to separating the movie experience from the box office experience. The box office - and overall attitude towards Star Wars by the masses it reflects - is just depressing but I can't let it dictate how I feel about the movie. Hopefully I enjoy the film and that's all that matters. As far as tracking the box office, it's almost like I have to pretend it's not a Star Wars film, because Star Wars films used to belong in the box office stratosphere and now....this last entry has plunged into the pool of the ordinary.

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You know, part of me wonders...OT, but trilogy related...

 

In TLJ, if Rian had taken an opening scene ANH Obi Wan approach with Luke vs a ESB Yoda approach (when Yoda wasn't actually serious), I wonder if the fan base would have stayed together.  I know I literally hit the pause button in my 1st and only viewing of TLJ after seeing the Luke lightsaber toss scene, literally sitting in disbelief that all of TFA was for nothing AND my favorite character was being turned into a joke.  After a moment, I sat down and watched the rest, and saw moments of brilliance and many more moments of disaster...but nothing like that opening...

 

I think I'd feel okay about the trilogy if instead of the lightsaber flip, you had Luke say he couldn't take the lightsaber and having him walk away in anguish/sorrow/something...

 

It's kinda like how BvS was ruined for me in the Martha scene...I could have forgiven a lot of things from that movie, but that scene was so bad, it literally ruins a movie...I put the Luke scene in as the same category...

 

I guess it's an example of how a movie is received can literally come down to one scene, and nothing can ever be considered a throw away, pun intended....

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12 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Ehhh...I assure you, I'm no fanboy of the new Star Wars films. My point with that money GIF is that Disney is such a behemoth company, it really doesn't matter how much money SW9 makes. Look at the ridiculous slate of mega sized movies they have released in recent years. 

It kinda does though when Star Wars is supposed to be one of their main pillars of the movie division (well Lucasfilm is but they're only making Star Wars films atm). Star Wars is taking a break theatrically too so this film needs to show strength in the brand. A sizable decrease from TLJ doesn't bode well for Disney's plans for future Star Wars films. 

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1 hour ago, a2k said:

Yeah, probably would have done 210-230 with even higher OD share of OW - it was 54% in 2011 so 60% today? Gives 125-135 OD with 210-230 OW.

A $230m OW would have pushed it to $500m+.

 

I think it would have done $210m/$465m

 

Still find it really surprising they never released a Potter film in December.

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1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

 

OW increases faster than general gross. DH2 equivalent is an easy 260M+ in today’s market imo.

That's a really tough comparison. It has already been mentioned that DH2 benefited from 3D pricing, something that is (thankfully IMO) all but dead today. There's also the fact that DH2 was the biggest true midnight preview ever. Nothing before or after ever came or will ever come close. I went to an 18 screen multiplex, all sellouts, and it was total chaos. With all the screens starting up at one time, logistical things like buying a soda or popcorn were very difficult. I waited an hour for a hot dog since I didn't have dinner (headed straight to the theater from work).

 

DH2 was also extremely front loaded despite being limited to midnight previews. In today's market that demand would be more spread out.

 

How all these different factors weigh in is anyone's guess. I think DH2 would have a better than 200M OW in current conditions, but I'm not sure how much higher it would go. I doubt 260M would happen. I don't think the fanbase was large enough. I could be wrong though.

 

Something else to consider when comparing HP to franchises like Avengers is that many HP fans went in knowing how DH2 ended. There were some that watched the movies and didn't read the books, but I have to believe that's the minority. I think that would effect DH2's ability to have an OW like IW or EG did, reaching 260 or 300M.

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28 minutes ago, JB33 said:

At this point I'm reduced to separating the movie experience from the box office experience. The box office - and overall attitude towards Star Wars by the masses it reflects - is just depressing but I can't let it dictate how I feel about the movie. Hopefully I enjoy the film and that's all that matters. As far as tracking the box office, it's almost like I have to pretend it's not a Star Wars film, because Star Wars films used to belong in the box office stratosphere and now....this last entry has plunged into the pool of the ordinary.

I mean, this will still be one of the 20 biggest movies ever domestically, which isn't exactly ordinary. While it's definitely a little disappointing, let's chill with this stuff. It's a mammoth franchise that is still absolutely gigantic even when it disappoints - like Age of Ultron or TDKR. Plus, Attack of the Clones WAS very ordinary, and while ROTS was the biggest movie of its year its not like 380m was some unstoppable Death Star when Shrek 2 and Pirates 2 routed it in bookend years.

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5 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean, this will still be one of the 20 biggest movies ever domestically, which isn't exactly ordinary. While it's definitely a little disappointing, let's chill with this stuff. It's a mammoth franchise that is still absolutely gigantic even when it disappoints - like Age of Ultron or TDKR. Plus, Attack of the Clones WAS very ordinary, and while ROTS was the biggest movie of its year its not like 380m was some unstoppable Death Star when Shrek 2 and Pirates 2 routed it in bookend years.

 

Good perspective. 

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7 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I mean, this will still be one of the 20 biggest movies ever domestically, which isn't exactly ordinary. While it's definitely a little disappointing, let's chill with this stuff. It's a mammoth franchise that is still absolutely gigantic even when it disappoints

True and it could have been the biggest movie at the 2020 domestic box office if Bob Iger didn't schedule everything this year.

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Just now, MrGlass2 said:

True and it could have been the biggest movie at the 2020 domestic box office if Bob Iger didn't schedule everything this year.

Woulda been smart with the oversaturation tbh. Absence makes the heart grow fonder, and Star Wars could have used Mando and Fallen Order to build up in the meantime.

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