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Eric Atreides

THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

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7 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

I think Star Wars’ performance in China is great because it’s a warning to studios not to get lazy and rely solely on nostalgia :)

How many more times does Disney need to release a film that relies on nostalgia before you realise they don’t give a damn? 

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1 minute ago, ViewerAnon said:

(THE LAST JEDi was divisive and put some people off but clearly lots of folks were perfectly happy to come back for the next one)
 

This is not the JUSTICE LEAGUE you’re looking for.

It would be impossible for TROS to be JL comparable at the box office, so it’s a ridiculous notion. If it makes under 1b  though, that’s a pretty disastrous fall from grace for the franchise. 

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1 minute ago, Gavin Feng said:

I personally think SW could be Marvel, but Skywalker saga couldn't. A single story thread shouldn't work like that.

 

Solo proved SW can't really be Marvel. Despite what fanboys on the internet says, the GA isn't really interested in seeing spin-off movies about characters: and most of Marvel is movies about a specific character. Rogue One maybe showed spin-off movies could work when exploring a different part of the world with new characters.

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https://www.boxofficepro.com/long-range-tracking-fantasy-island-the-photograph-and-sonic-the-hedgehog/

 

8-Week Tracking & Forecasts

Release Date Title 3-Day (FSS) Opening Tracking Range 3-Day (FSS) Opening Forecast % Chg from Last Week Domestic Total Range Domestic Total Forecast % Chg from Last Week Distributor
12/25/2019 Little Women (2019) $17,000,000 – $27,000,000 $23,000,000   $90,000,000 – $130,000,000 $115,000,000   Sony / Columbia
12/25/2019 Spies in Disguise $11,000,000 – $16,000,000 $13,000,000 -19% $50,000,000 – $75,000,000 $61,000,000 -19% Fox / Blue Sky
12/25/2019 Uncut Gems (Wide) $3,000,000 – $8,000,000 $5,000,000     n/a   A24
1/3/2020 The Grudge (2020) $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000 -21% $25,000,000 – $45,000,000 $25,000,000 -22% Sony / Columbia
1/10/2020 1917 (Wide) $20,000,000 – $25,000,000 $24,000,000   $75,000,000 – $100,000,000 $94,000,000   Universal / DreamWorks
1/10/2020 Just Mercy (Wide) $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $14,000,000   $50,000,000 – $70,000,000 $59,000,000   Warner Bros.
1/10/2020 Like a Boss $15,000,000 – $20,000,000 $17,000,000   $45,000,000 – $60,000,000 $51,000,000   Paramount
1/10/2020 Underwater $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $6,500,000   $12,000,000 – $25,000,000 $18,000,000   Fox
1/17/2020 Bad Boys for Life $21,000,000 – $31,000,000 $25,000,000   $55,000,000 – $75,000,000 $64,000,000   Sony / Columbia
1/17/2020 Dolittle $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $40,000,000   $120,000,000 – $170,000,000 $145,000,000   Universal
1/24/2020 The Gentlemen $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $50,000,000 $38,000,000   STX
1/24/2020 The Last Full Measure   n/a     n/a   Roadside Attractions
1/24/2020 Run   n/a     n/a   Lionsgate / Summit
1/24/2020 The Turning $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $14,000,000   $25,000,000 – $40,000,000 $38,000,000   Universal
1/31/2020 Gretel and Hansel $5,000,000 – $10,000,000 $5,500,000   $10,000,000 – $20,000,000 $11,000,000   United Artists Releasing
1/31/2020 The Rhythm Section $10,000,000 – $15,000,000 $12,000,000   $30,000,000 – $45,000,000 $38,000,000   Paramount
2/7/2020 Birds of Prey (and the Fantabulous Emancipation of One Harley Quinn) $40,000,000 – $60,000,000 $49,000,000   $100,000,000 – $150,000,000 $125,000,000   Warner Bros.
2/14/2020 Fantasy Island $17,000,000 – $22,000,000 $17,000,000 NEW $44,000,000 – $57,000,000 $44,000,000 NEW Sony / Columbia
2/14/2020 The Photograph $13,000,000 – $18,000,000 $15,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $42,000,000 $35,000,000 NEW Universal
2/14/2020 Sonic the Hedgehog $20,000,000 – $30,000,000 $26,000,000 NEW $65,000,000 – $100,000,000 $86,000,000 NEW Paramount
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BOR went with 189 and could be around that..

 

Weekday Date Gross % Hold Cume
Thu 19 Dec 19 40.0   40.0
Fri 20 Dec 19 49.0 22.5 89.0
Sat 21 Dec 19 53.9 10.0 142.9
Sun 22 Dec 19 45.8 -15.0 188.7

 

OD 2.23x previews (TLJ 2.33x)

OW 4.72x previews (TLJ 4.89x)

189 * 2.91x = 550 (TLJ 220*2.82x = 620 )

Edited by a2k
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Disappointing numbers for CATs and Bombshell. 
 

Meh numbers for Star Wars. The decline of that franchise has been something else. *Yes I know it’s going to do very good at the box office but I’m talking about the standard for the last couple films from the trilogy. 

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Just now, MovieMan89 said:

I think Star Wars can work in an MCU quantity on TV. Big no to cinematically though. 

 

The Mandalorian is a pretty big hit based on online chatter and it's only an average TV show. So yeah probably.

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Batman V Superman $873.6M WW

Justice League $657.9M WW

Drop about 25%

 

TLJ $1.332B WW

TROS ??

If a drop of 25% ish, it would be $1B on the nose

 

It's not impossible for this to mimic the movie path exactly, just breaking differently on Dom/WW splits and "starting numbers"...

 

And it may not be exact, but the analogy isn't supposed to be...it's the previous "no legs divisive film" leads into what SHOULD be the much bigger box office film which is also quality and fan reaction-based the "better" film, but which somehow still finishes under the prior film...

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6 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

So it's only one million less than TLJ internationally? That's interesting, Anyone know what's different about the release this time? I think TLJ china release was much later.

Yeah China didn’t release at the same time for TLJ. Without China, the international debut was 55.5M vs TLJ’s 60.8M.

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Actually Star Wars is the franchise with the most potential. Just think about all the wierd you can do with it. The problem with this Disney Trilogy is that it's not weird enough in a good way. 

 

The first 40 minutes of ROTS are exciting and weird but TLJ gave us Luke drinking blue milk. 

 

 

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Idk man, I am not really a big SW fan, still can't believe it is over today. No more Rey show anymore. I had good time in first two acts, third act to me felt idiotic but it still had moments. This shit hurts.

 

TBH after watching EG I had conclusion. Today I want more of it yet. Similar feeling as The Office finale few weeks back.

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Considering Disney plus is new, I never Mandalorian will be such a big hit. Baby Yoda memes have taken over the Internet.

 

'THIS IS THE WAY' and 'I HAVE SPOKEN' have become Iconic lines in Fandom. 

 

Edited by Madhuvan
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32 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Who the heck would have thought 5 years ago after TFA broke records this is where the finale of Star Wars would go in terms of box office, Age of Ultron. LMAO! 

 

Anything below a 2 is not good for this franchise sorry. Other franchises would salivate at this number but Star Wars? Nope. 

This is truth. This third SW trilogy is going out like Hunger Games. The trajectory is not good. There's no way to spin it as a success. Sure, it'll make a little money, but GA interest is clearly eroding away. Meanwhile, international continues to under perform.

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17 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

(THE LAST JEDi was divisive and put some people off but clearly lots of folks were perfectly happy to come back for the next one)
 

This is not the JUSTICE LEAGUE you’re looking for.

But did less than the last Jedi. For the last film of the skywalker saga to do less is pretty mediocre.

Edited by VENOM
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So Deadline went from "about $1m" to $350k or Bombshell.

Seriously, this is embarassing for a website focussed on this stuff.

 

Either report something worth to be reported or just don't.

This has nothing to do with journalism.

 

Same for Cats, where they were off by 45% as well. 

Edited by Poseidon
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