THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

@a2k what are the worst legs for Xmas tentpoles in recent times?

Tough to think of any tentpole (with Fri od) except TLJ's 2.82x.

 RO's 3.4x, Hobbit1 3.58x in 2013, Hobbit2 3.5x in 2014. 

[charlie Jatinder]

What these early estimates are basically projection based on the 7 AM PST numbers from past trends and previous day trend of the film, from around 2-2.4k theatres. As the day progress the count of theatre rise by around 400-600.

 

These 7AM PST numbers are pre-sales + 1st show from East Coast (where it's currently 10AM) while for West Coast it will be purely pre-sales for the day unless there is some show.

 

The people who goes to international threads would be aware by this practice as hourly numbers are available in Korea, China and Japan. In NA its limited and me & RTH are doing that here. I can't reveal the raw numbers so that's a problem and depend solely on me to judge.

 

Now RTH gives his number mostly post-noon, but its sleep hours in India that time, So I can't give any numbers till Evening. I try to project numbers from these early numbers. That went pretty great prior to Aladdin but in Summer I got many ODs wrong by same, as films were getting very pre-sale loaded. No matter how conservative I was trying to be, they always were going wrong. Things good since October now. Got Joker right, F2 was bit off, Jumanji right and yday Episode 9 was bang onn.

 

Now I can give around 3-4 updates.

 

1. A projection at 7AM PST

2. An update before sleeping at around 10AM PST but this is mostly useless

3. Updates between 6PM-10 PM PST

4. Final numbers post 11AM PST.

 

Now as late as it go in the day, margin of error will reduce.

Edited December 21, 2019 by Jedi Jat

[filmlover]

Huge Friday numbers for Star Wars as expected. I'm guessing it'll be too frontloading for $200M but openening in the same $190M+ range as Avengers: Age of Ultron and The Lion King 2019 isn't shabby either, especially since Christmas is just four days away. We'll see how the post-holiday legs hold up.

 

lol Cats. Between the terrible reviews and C+ CinemaScore (terrible for a crowd-pleasing musical), it's probably not gonna finish with much more than the last critically-panned Andrew Lloyd Webber adaptation (2004's The Phantom of the Opera with $51M) even with a holiday boost.

 

Alright wide start for Bombshell. I imagine most of its audience is waiting until Christmas passes to check it out.

Edited December 21, 2019 by filmlover

[Nemeres]

Edit.

Edited December 21, 2019 by Nemeres

[Bart Allen]

42 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Dang, is my $171M gonna end up being right on target?  If it's...

 

$40M Thurs

$49M Fri

$49M Sat

$33M Sun (-32%)

 

Then Sunday needs a 32% drop...okay, $171M is still probably too low, but not much at this point...funny if this hits $175M on the nose, since that was the bottom tracking number in the range for the longest time (when it was always $175M-$200M)...

How accurate do you believe this'll actually be?

[wildphantom]

21 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

[filmlover]

I feel like Little Women and Spies in Disguise are being well-positioned for breakouts of sorts at this point. The former has already close to sold out a lot of the afternoon shows on opening day Wednesday at various theaters around here and the latter is selling extremely well too. Really helps that they're easily the most appealing-looking of the non-Star Wars/Jumanji/Frozen offerings this Christmas since Cats is too off-putting, Bombshell is too controversial, etc.

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, Bart Allen said:

How accurate do you believe this'll actually be?

There's no chance it drops 32% Sunday. Probably 20% at absolute worst. Tons of people are off work and out of school starting Monday.

 

If Jedi Jat is on the numbers as usual with his Saturday projection, 180 to 185 is likely. Probably closer to 180.

Edited December 21, 2019 by JohnnyGossamer

[redfirebird2008]

13 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

What these early estimates are basically projection based on the 7 AM PST numbers from past trends and previous day trend of the film, from around 2-2.4k theatres. As the day progress the count of theatre rise by around 400-600.

 

These 7AM PST numbers are pre-sales + 1st show from East Coast (where it's currently 10AM) while for West Coast it will be purely pre-sales for the day unless there is some show.

 

The people who goes to international threads would be aware by this practice as hourly numbers are available in Korea, China and Japan. In NA its limited and me & RTH are doing that here. I can't reveal the raw numbers so that's a problem and depend solely on me to judge.

 

Now RTH gives his number mostly post-noon, but its sleep hours in India that time, So I can't give any numbers till Evening. I try to project numbers from these early numbers. That went pretty great prior to Aladdin but in Summer I got many ODs wrong by same, as films were getting very pre-sale loaded. No matter how conservative I was trying to be, they always were going wrong. Things good since October now. Got Joker right, F2 was bit off, Jumanji right and yday Episode 9 was bang onn.

 

Now I can give around 3-4 updates.

 

1. A projection at 7AM PST

2. An update before sleeping at around 10AM PST but this is mostly useless

3. Updates between 6PM-10 PM PST

4. Final numbers post 11AM PST.

 

Now as late as it go in the day, margin of error will reduce.

 

Appreciate your time and effort!!

[XXR vs XXR]

Could you have ever imagined 3 years ago that the finale of the Sequel Trilogy would possibly open lower than Incredibles 2?

 

A domestic total within 10% of Rogue One? 

I'd have never fathomed.....

 

[Bart Allen]

So what are the Thursday-Sunday numbers for The Force Awakens and The Last Jedi in comparison? :3

[JohnnyGossamer]

1 minute ago, VenomXXR said:

Could you have ever imagined 3 years ago that the finale of the Sequel Trilogy would possibly open lower than Incredibles 2?

 

A domestic total within 10% of Rogue One? 

I'd have never fathomed.....

 

Just thought the same... That said, Incredibles 2 was enormous. Wonder if they'll do a 3?

[LaughingEvans]

Nor TROS neither TLJ are bombs, but the whole trilogy technically is. This was a 4 billion investment.

[Legion Again]

May have to move AoU’s opening out of the disappointment bucket at this rate.

[cory]

3 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

Nor TROS neither TLJ are bombs, but the whole trilogy technically is. This was a 4 billion investment.

Merchandising. 

[sfran43]

 

Edited December 21, 2019 by sfran43

[sfran43]

 

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

Nor TROS neither TLJ are bombs, but the whole trilogy technically is. This was a 4 billion investment.

Huh? TFA 2B+, RO 1B+, TLJ 1.3B+, ROS 1.2B+ most likely. Mandalorian got folk signing up for D+ in hordes. 

 

Solo was a setback for sure. Maybe I'm misunderstanding this post?

[JohnnyGossamer]

3 minutes ago, cory said:

Merchandising. 

This too. Disney will easily make a huge return on that 4B investment.

[a2k]

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	N	Star Wars: The Rise of Sk…	Walt Disney	$90,000,000			4,406	$20,427	$90,000,000	1
2	(1)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$7,100,000	+121%	-64%	4,227	$1,680	$82,911,365	8
3	(2)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$3,300,000	+73%	-24%	3,665	$900	$377,533,961	29
4	N	Cats	Universal	$2,620,000			3,380	$775	$2,620,000	1
5	(-)	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$1,830,000	+11,775%	+1,236%	1,480	$1,236	$2,239,281	8
6	(3)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$1,765,000	+94%	-33%	2,535	$696	$85,213,909	24
7	(4)	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$755,000	+84%	-51%	2,502	$302	$7,707,518	8
8	(8)	Black Christmas	Universal	$550,000	+147%	-70%	2,625	$210	$5,998,650	8
9	(7)	Queen & Slim	Universal	$530,000	+120%	-48%	1,078	$492	$35,278,765	24
10	(6)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Century…	$467,000	+38%	-60%	1,433	$326	$100,628,608	36
11	(5)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$345,000	-8%	-64%	1,524	$226	$51,540,051	29

Edited December 21, 2019 by a2k