THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[Legion Again]

TFA was a crowd pleasing WOM monster. Very much doubt TROS will hit the -45% or so needed for 100M. Take the under on 90.

[aladdino]

bombshell did badly, huh?

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Having X-Mas and New Years on a Wednesday is like the absolute ideal scenario for maximizing holiday legs for movies - plenty of incentive for not only children but adults to pretty much take the entire week off, or at minimum the day after Xmas or something.

This.

[MagnarTheGreat]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Was the opening weekend breakdown by the sexes this skewed for the other 2 movies?  I find it crazy that it's 2/3, 1/3...and 10% women under 25?

 

Updated PostTrak for Skywalker shows guys over 25 (43%) in attendance followed by men under 25 (24%), females 25+ (22%), and females under 25 (10%). 

 

 

"Opening day demographics [for The Last Jedi] show the film played to an audience that was 58% male vs. 43% female and of that audience 37% was 25 years old or under."

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20180106073957/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4354&p=.htm

 

Here's for the first 2 weeks:

 

* MPAA Reports: "Comscore/Screen Engine's 'PostTrak' collects domestic survey data for all films in release in at least 800 theaters, which links box office grosses to gender and ethnicity of attendees. The surveys are conducted during the first two weeks of a film's wide release."
percentage values in table may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding
 

Sources: Solo: A Star Wars Story, 2017, 2016, 2015
 

[Cmasterclay]

5 minutes ago, aladdino said:

bombshell did badly, huh?

More like BOMBshell 

[Andreas]

28 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Still betting Frozen 2 will gross more than TROS WW.

No one's doubting this...?

[Water Bottle]

My 11 AM showing was almost empty.

 

I got the trailer (not prologue) for Tenet and my dad was confused what it was supposed to be telling me it's not a good trailer for the GA. Also got a trailer for Top Gun: Maverick and a clever teaser for the new Minions movie. 3 trailers and a bunch of ads. Lol.

[Zakiyyah6]

Tenet's trailer is fine. Nolan's trailers are always secretive. Especially the first trailer.

[Valonqar]

38 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Was the opening weekend breakdown by the sexes this skewed for the other 2 movies?  I find it crazy that it's 2/3, 1/3...and 10% women under 25?

 

Updated PostTrak for Skywalker shows guys over 25 (43%) in attendance followed by men under 25 (24%), females 25+ (22%), and females under 25 (10%). 

so female attendance dropped from TLJ? that's 67% guys and 32% women. maybe just for OD and it evens out for OW? 

[VanillaSkies]

15 minutes ago, aladdino said:

bombshell did badly, huh?

Actually, it's a pretty good performance. 

People are forgetting that it's not that wide of a release. Also, at 1.83 million Friday, 6m+ weekend can't be ruled out. It will all depend on Saturday/Sunday matinees from the older crowd. It should then hold up nicely post Christmas, and the Golden Globes should give it a boost Jan 6th, the SAG awards the following weekend, and of course the Oscars later on. 

 

It's setting itself up for a pretty good run. 

The most important factor is it's 88% RT audience score, way better than Vice's 59% audience score. 

Vice also opened in 1000+ more theatres.

I think if they expand properly, (2000+ theatres after the Globes and increase a few hundred every weekend until Oscar), they can easily mount a good total especiallly considering Vice still made 48 million despite the bad WOM. 

 

Having actually seen Bombshell, I can say it will likely be a crowd pleaser over the next few months. 

The performances are quite good, and of course being a true story makes it all the more astounding. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

42 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Still betting Frozen 2 will gross more than TROS WW.

Pretty much locked IMO

[George Parr]

28 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Having X-Mas and New Years on a Wednesday is like the absolute ideal scenario for maximizing holiday legs for movies - plenty of incentive for not only children but adults to pretty much take the entire week off, or at minimum the day after Xmas or something.

I think there are better options, like the one TFA had. This one suffers from leaving the holiday-period before even entering the third weekend. I would put christmas eve falling on Tuesdays as the third best at best, behind it falling on Thursday and Wednesday.

 

This one might give maybe a tiny bit better boost for the upcoming week, but it is weaker when you look at the holidays as a whole.

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, MagnarTheGreat said:

 

 

"Opening day demographics [for The Last Jedi] show the film played to an audience that was 58% male vs. 43% female and of that audience 37% was 25 years old or under."

 

http://web.archive.org/web/20180106073957/http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=4354&p=.htm

 

Here's for the first 2 weeks:

 

* MPAA Reports: "Comscore/Screen Engine's 'PostTrak' collects domestic survey data for all films in release in at least 800 theaters, which links box office grosses to gender and ethnicity of attendees. The surveys are conducted during the first two weeks of a film's wide release."
percentage values in table may not sum to 100 percent due to rounding
 

Sources: Solo: A Star Wars Story, 2017, 2016, 2015
 

Thanks...so truly, the fan "men" 25+ still showed up, probably in almost equal numbers to TLJ...but there was a large drop in the female 25+ fans and a small drop in the under 25 sets so far...that's kinda bad if they want families to pick up the slack over the holidays...

 

Very early still, but that's gotta be another worrying sign...

[a2k]

44 minutes ago, Fullbuster said:

Still betting Frozen 2 will gross more than TROS WW.

that's been settled before TROS opened.

 

FRZ2 will be ahead by 200+

[Zakiyyah6]

Frozen 2 beating Skywalker worldwide is only surprising to people not paying attention. Star Wars is no Marvel overseas.

[aladdino]

15 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Actually, it's a pretty good performance. 

People are forgetting that it's not that wide of a release. Also, at 1.83 million Friday, 6m+ weekend can't be ruled out. It will all depend on Saturday/Sunday matinees from the older crowd. It should then hold up nicely post Christmas, and the Golden Globes should give it a boost Jan 6th, the SAG awards the following weekend, and of course the Oscars later on. 

 

It's setting itself up for a pretty good run. 

The most important factor is it's 88% RT audience score, way better than Vice's 59% audience score. 

Vice also opened in 1000+ more theatres.

I think if they expand properly, (2000+ theatres after the Globes and increase a few hundred every weekend until Oscar), they can easily mount a good total especiallly considering Vice still made 48 million despite the bad WOM. 

 

Having actually seen Bombshell, I can say it will likely be a crowd pleaser over the next few months. 

The performances are quite good, and of course being a true story makes it all the more astounding. 

really? i expect bombshell to end up with a bo gross similar to the favourite or i tonya, 30

[VENOM]

3 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

My 11 AM showing was almost empty.

 

I got the trailer (not prologue) for Tenet and my dad was confused what it was supposed to be telling me it's not a good trailer for the GA. Also got a trailer for Top Gun: Maverick and a clever teaser for the new Minions movie. 3 trailers and a bunch of ads. Lol.

Not saying it happened to you but a growing number of people are reporting practically empty screenings that were showing as 99% sold out when they went to purchase their tickets. Also the RT audience score seems to have been frozen in carbonite.

[ZackM]

3 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Not saying it happened to you but a growing number of people are reporting practically empty screenings that were showing as 99% sold out when they went to purchase their tickets. Also the RT audience score seems to have been frozen in carbonite.

The RT score is not frozen.  While the percent has remained unchanged the average rating has shifted.

[Menor the Destroyer]

57 minutes ago, ViewerAnon said:

No Christmas Eve + People/kids off work Monday to soften Sunday drop = better weekend drops for everything, SW included.

If you're talking just about comparison to TLJ then yeah. But the weekend drop will be far worse than say TFA. I doubt it will be better than 50%. 

[LeoC]

1 hour ago, sabrecmc said:

I think you are very right here.  It so depends on what you have grown up with.  I remember those scenes in CTHD, and I thought they were so, so stupid, but, of course, they make just as much sense as The Force and Jedi when you think about it.  I've tried a few more recent Wuxia films and just can't get into them at all.  I'm assuming there is some cultural divide that keeps SW niche in China and the same for Wuxia films in the US. But, you are correct that if a movie could find a way bridge that gap, it would probably be very successful.  How was The Matrix received in parts of Asia?  Wonder if the sequel will try to pull some more elements and more Asian characters into it. 

The Matrix is very well-known and considered by many to be one of the best sci-fi movies of all time. I doubt the sequel will be as good as the original ones, especially the first one, but if it gets close, then it will definitely pull big numbers in China. 

 

I believe the action advisor/choreography director of the Matric franchise is Yuen Woo Ping, who is probably the most famous choreography director in HK. He is also the choreography director for CTHD, and many other Wuxia movies. That’s why many actions scenes in The Matrix look very eastern.