THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

[John Marston]

4 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Rian Johnson is having the last laugh this weekend  

lmao, he is strongly responsible for hurting the Star Wars brand. 

[mikee11]

1 minute ago, Madhuvan said:

Soon, Star wars will only be seen by males.

The lack of women on ow is also a major factor in its low opening. 

What possible reason could there be for female audiences being less interested in this film than TLJ and TFA?

[water]

55 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Will go with

89.25 + 48.75-49.25 + 41-42 = 179-180.5

 

just ran some numbers...

 

Movie	Thurs	T->F	Fri	F->S	Sat	S->S	Sun	OW	Multi	Dom
TFA	57000000	9.0%	62119282	9.9%	68294204	-11.3%	60553189	247966675	3.7773714	936662225
RO	29000000	45.2%	42094394	10.0%	46308115	-18.6%	37679172	155081681	3.4312068	532117324
TLJ	45000000	32.6%	59684491	7.2%	63993205	-19.8%	51331888	220009584	2.8188835	620181382
TROS	40000000	23.1%	49250000	-1.0%	48750000
TLK	23000000	138.8%	54930758	11.1%	61007382	-13.4%	52832619	191770759	2.8348328	543638043
AOU	27600000	105.9%	56824532	-0.5%	56526635	-11.0%	50319942	191271109	2.3997658	459005868
I2	18500000	185.2%	52760321	11.6%	58894582	-10.8%	52533002	182687905	3.3312646	608581744
CW	25000000	102.0%	50502161	21.2%	61209001	-30.7%	42427980	179139142	2.2780301	408084349
BATB	16300000	191.3%	47477443	32.1%	62706808	-23.0%	48266365	174750616	2.8841911	504014165
BVS	27700000	94.4%	53858505	-5.9%	50657088	-33.3%	33791754	166007347	1.9900336	330360194
EG	60000000	62.4%	97461641	12.1%	109264122	-17.3%	90389244	357115007	2.4036318	858373000
IW	39000000	72.7%	67334939	22.0%	82131612	-15.7%	69231632	257698183	2.6341493	678815482
JW	18500000	243.0%	63453950	9.8%	69644830	-17.9%	57207490	208806270	3.1238077	652270625
BP	25200000	101.4%	50741146	30.1%	65995366	-9.0%	60067439	202003951	3.4655736	700059566
JL	13000000	95.9%	25471202	28.3%	32680117	-30.6%	22690920	93842239	2.4405246	229024295

 

for friday to saturday change, tros is closest to aou, bvs, and tlj.

 

thursday to true friday is harder to compare because of how rapidly thursdays have gotten more popular over the last few years, but compared to recent fandom-driven-ow movies like tlj, eg, iw, and bp, it's the lowest increase.

 

using your numbers of 41-42 for sunday is only a 15% drop compared to tlj 20% drop, which seems unlikely considering it's going significantly worse than tlj so far. using tlj's exact drop and multi results in this

 

TLJ	45000000	32.6%	59684491	7.2%	63993205	-19.8%	51331888	220009584	2.8188835	620181382
TROS	40000000	23.1%	49250000	-1.0%	48750000	-19.8%	39104613	177104613	2.8188835	499237269

 

39m sunday, 177m ow, 499m dom (lol)

 

but again so far tros isn't performing the same as tlj, it's performing worse. to do a really simplified calculation, tlj 32.6 - 7.2 = 25.4, and tros 23.1 - -1.0 = 24.1, so quite similar rate of change. 24.1/25.4 = 0.95, so i'll use 95% of tlj's delta saturday->sunday change. 0.95 * (-19.8 - 7.2) = -25.65.

 

i'll leave the multi the same because maybe smaller opening will counteract worse reception (but i personally believe multi will be lower too)

 

TROS

40000000

23.1%

49250000

-1.0%

48750000

-25.7%

36245625

174245625

2.8188835

491178114

 

36m sunday, 174m ow, 491m dom

[narniadis]

4 minutes ago, John Marston said:

lmao, he is strongly responsible for hurting the Star Wars brand. 

Yall can say that all you want, but ultimately it was / is Disney Corporate who is responsible. They not only went the greed route, but chose to ignore anything that might have been negative about TLJ before it started production and I say that as one who enjoys it, but also recognizes why others dont. 

Johnson shouldnt have been the choice for part 2, JJ should have never been a choice at all. Disney and Disney alone is responsible. 

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

Yall can say that all you want, but ultimately it was / is Disney Corporate who is responsible. They not only went the greed route, but chose to ignore anything that might have been negative about TLJ before it started production and I say that as one who enjoys it, but also recognizes why others dont. 

Johnson shouldnt have been the choice for part 2, JJ should have never been a choice at all. Disney and Disney alone is responsible. 

 

 

sure, but the ones that say Johnson has now been vindicated and he should return to Star Wars now are laughable. Thankfully it will never happen. 

[narniadis]

@water as others continue to do so, you are ignoring the differences in release date behavior. Regardless of the WOM ROS is more likely to act like TFA on Sunday than Jedi due to Jedi opening a week earlier and pre the Christmas Break period. 

Having worse legs, I hope not from a box office pov, but that as always remains to be seen. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

sure, but the ones that say Johnson has now been vindicated and he should return to Star Wars now are laughable. Thankfully it will never happen. 

Vindicated is a strong word that isnt being used well thats for sure. I personally would be glad to see Johnson do something different within the universe but as you point out, thats not going to happen. 

[a2k]

18 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

If Rise of Skywalker finishes even as low 500m then that'd be better retention than Jumanji 3 finishing with 280 but yeah, different expectations and yadda yadda

Yeah, also we call it Jum3 due to the 1995 one but essentialy it's a '2'. JW1->2 and IT1->2 retention will give JTNL ~260. TFA->TLJ retention will give it 268 and it's looking to do close to these numbers if not more.

[Legion Again]

12 minutes ago, John Marston said:

lmao, he is strongly responsible for hurting the Star Wars brand. 

He did it all to let Knives Out have a stronger hold this weekend. True 12D chess

[narniadis]

It would appear that Saturday as a whole is slightly deflated? Jumanji didnt rise as well as it could have, neither did Frozen 🤷‍♂️ 

Not going to gripe about 25m for Jumanji mind you, but had hoped it would reach the 27 or so that it appeared was possible. 

[CoolioD1]

Finally watched it. Really solid ending for the trilogy. the characters all work so well off each other and all of their arcs are wrapped up in a pretty satisfying manner. That said if they make a 4th Christmas Prince movie next year I wouldn't be mad.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

Yeah, also we call it Jum3 due to the 1995 one but essentialy it's a '2'. JW1->2 and IT1->2 retention will give JTNL ~260. TFA->TLJ retention will give it 268 and it's looking to do close to these numbers if not more.

I have to say, that I am feeling a little vindicated 😂 all of that "it cant drop so far from a 400m film" and so forth that have all been silent now. 

The 250m mark is still my goal but it should hit it with ease now. 

[water]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

@water as others continue to do so, you are ignoring the differences in release date behavior. Regardless of the WOM ROS is more likely to act like TFA on Sunday than Jedi due to Jedi opening a week earlier and pre the Christmas Break period. 

Having worse legs, I hope not from a box office pov, but that as always remains to be seen. 

TFA had a 9% increase from thursday to friday and 9% increase from friday to saturday. so far tros has 23% increase from thursday to friday falling to a 1% DECREASE from friday to saturday. if it's supposed to be performing "like TFA" then that's actually even worse, tfa was relatively flat but increasing, whereas this is decreasing sharply.

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

It would appear that Saturday as a whole is slightly deflated? Jumanji didnt rise as well as it could have, neither did Frozen 🤷‍♂️ 

Not going to gripe about 25m for Jumanji mind you, but had hoped it would reach the 27 or so that it appeared was possible. 

Frozen if it hits 4.9 is up 48.5% from Dis Fri (up less from act Friday I suspect). F1 was +51% with same calendar, so looks pretty normal and even strong to me. Friday was just break benefited.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Frozen if it hits 4.9 is up 48.5% from Dis Fri (up less from act Friday I suspect). F1 was +51% with same calendar, so looks pretty normal and even strong to me. Friday was just break benefited.

Yeah, I just saw that 🤦‍♂️ talked too soon lol. 

[mikee11]

I don't know if Rian is too happy he's obviously sending out signals he wants back on Star Wars but I'm not sure if they're gonna call on him to lead the next phase of the franchise. I mean I hope not.

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, water said:

TFA had a 9% increase from thursday to friday and 9% increase from friday to saturday. so far tros has 23% increase from thursday to friday falling to a 1% DECREASE from friday to saturday. if it's supposed to be performing "like TFA" then that's actually even worse, tfa was relatively flat but increasing, whereas this is decreasing sharply.

Its not a point of following TFA itself, its never going to do that. Its a calendar release date in conjunction with the holiday. Same reason that family films didnt hit 100% today and will all hold very very well on Sunday. 

Its the same reason that Jedi, word of mouth being bad or not, couldnt avoid a massive fall in weekend 2 since Christmas Eve was on the actual weekend. 

Its not a point of trying to allow personal opinion to shape the view, but the data we have to look at. Check the 2013 calendar for the last exact same dates and also how other films behaved during 2015 when TFA opened. Its a different set up than if it had opened last weekend.

[Nova]

Cats was something. 

[charlie Jatinder]

My Projection for TROS. what say @a2k

Spoiler

Date	Day	Gross	% +/- YD / LW*		GTD	Week	Change
20 Dec 2019	Fri	$90.00			$90.00
21 Dec 2019	Sat	$49.00	-45.56%		$139.00
22 Dec 2019	Sun	$42.00	-14.29%		$181.00	$181.00
23 Dec 2019	Mon	$25.20	-40.00%		$206.20
24 Dec 2019	Tue	$18.90	-25.00%		$225.10
25 Dec 2019	Wed	$29.67	57.00%		$254.77
26 Dec 2019	Thu	$30.41	2.50%		$285.19	$285.19
27 Dec 2019	Fri	$27.37	-10.00%	-69.59%	$312.56
28 Dec 2019	Sat	$28.74	5.00%	-41.34%	$341.30
29 Dec 2019	Sun	$22.99	-20.00%	-45.25%	$364.30	$79.11	-56.29%
30 Dec 2019	Mon	$16.10	-30.00%	-36.13%	$380.39
31 Dec 2019	Tue	$13.68	-15.00%	-27.61%	$394.07
1 Jan 2020	Wed	$19.84	45.00%	-33.15%	$413.91
2 Jan 2020	Thu	$9.92	-50.00%	-67.39%	$423.83	$138.64	-51.39%
3 Jan 2020	Fri	$11.90	20.00%	-56.52%	$435.73
4 Jan 2020	Sat	$14.88	25.00%	-48.24%	$450.61
5 Jan 2020	Sun	$9.30	-37.50%	-59.56%	$459.91	$36.08	-54.39%
6 Jan 2020	Mon	$3.07	-67.00%	-80.93%	$462.98
7 Jan 2020	Tue	$3.01	-2.00%	-78.02%	$465.99
8 Jan 2020	Wed	$1.80	-40.00%	-90.90%	$467.79
9 Jan 2020	Thu	$1.66	-8.00%	-83.26%	$469.45	$45.62	-67.10%
10 Jan 2020	Fri	$2.99	80.00%	-74.90%	$472.44
11 Jan 2020	Sat	$4.48	50.00%	-69.88%	$476.92
12 Jan 2020	Sun	$2.78	-38.00%	-70.12%	$479.70	$10.25	-71.59%
13 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.69	-75.00%	-77.36%	$480.39
14 Jan 2020	Tue	$1.01	45.00%	-66.50%	$481.40
15 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.55	-45.00%	-69.29%	$481.96
16 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.52	-7.00%	-68.96%	$482.47	$13.02	-71.46%
17 Jan 2020	Fri	$1.08	110.00%	-63.79%	$483.55
18 Jan 2020	Sat	$2.06	90.00%	-54.13%	$485.61
19 Jan 2020	Sun	$1.64	-20.00%	-40.81%	$487.25	$4.78	-53.34%
20 Jan 2020	Mon	$1.32	-20.00%	89.39%	$488.57
21 Jan 2020	Tue	$0.46	-65.00%	-54.28%	$489.03
22 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.25	-45.00%	-54.28%	$489.28
23 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.23	-9.00%	-55.27%	$489.51	$7.04	-45.91%
24 Jan 2020	Fri	$0.50	115.00%	-54.20%	$490.01
25 Jan 2020	Sat	$0.94	90.00%	-54.20%	$490.95
26 Jan 2020	Sun	$0.61	-35.00%	-62.79%	$491.56	$2.05	-57.16%
27 Jan 2020	Mon	$0.15	-75.00%	-88.37%	$491.72
28 Jan 2020	Tue	$0.23	50.00%	-50.16%	$491.94
29 Jan 2020	Wed	$0.14	-40.00%	-45.63%	$492.08
30 Jan 2020	Thu	$0.14	0.00%	-40.26%	$492.22	$2.71	-61.56%
31 Jan 2020	Fri	$0.29	110.00%	-41.65%	$492.51
1 Feb 2020	Sat	$0.58	100.00%	-38.58%	$493.09
2 Feb 2020	Sun	$0.36	-38.00%	-41.41%	$493.45	$1.23	-40.16%
3 Feb 2020	Mon	$0.08	-78.00%	-48.44%	$493.53
4 Feb 2020	Tue	$0.12	55.00%	-46.72%	$493.65
5 Feb 2020	Wed	$0.08	-35.00%	-42.28%	$493.73
6 Feb 2020	Thu	$0.08	5.00%	-39.40%	$493.81	$1.59	-41.26%
7 Feb 2020	Fri	$0.19	130.00%	-33.62%	$494.00
8 Feb 2020	Sat	$0.39	105.00%	-31.97%	$494.40
9 Feb 2020	Sun	$0.18	-55.00%	-50.62%	$494.57	$0.76	-37.81%
10 Feb 2020	Mon	$0.04	-75.00%	-43.89%	$494.62
11 Feb 2020	Tue	$0.07	50.00%	-45.70%	$494.68
12 Feb 2020	Wed	$0.04	-40.00%	-49.87%	$494.72
13 Feb 2020	Thu	$0.04	-10.00%	-57.03%	$494.76	$0.95	-40.33%
14 Feb 2020	Fri	$0.08	130.00%	-57.03%	$494.84
15 Feb 2020	Sat	$0.17	105.00%	-57.03%	$495.01
16 Feb 2020	Sun	$0.12	-30.00%	-33.16%	$495.13	$0.37	-51.49%
17 Feb 2020	Mon	$0.07	-40.00%	60.40%	$495.20
18 Feb 2020	Tue	$0.04	-50.00%	-46.53%	$495.24
19 Feb 2020	Wed	$0.02	-55.00%	-59.90%	$495.25
20 Feb 2020	Thu	$0.01	-10.00%	-59.90%	$495.27	$0.51	-46.59%

 

[KP1025]

Sub-$500 million DOM would be shocking for TROS. 😱