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Eric Atreides

THE STAR WARS THE RISE OF SKYWALKER WEEKEND THREAD | Abandon all hope, ye who enter here | 177.38 DOM, 197 OS, 373.5 WW | SALE NOW LIVE

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4 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

My Projection for TLJ. what say @a2k

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Date Day Gross % +/- YD / LW* GTD Week Change
20 Dec 2019 Fri $90.00     $90.00    
21 Dec 2019 Sat $49.00 -45.56%   $139.00    
22 Dec 2019 Sun $42.00 -14.29%   $181.00 $181.00  
23 Dec 2019 Mon $25.20 -40.00%   $206.20    
24 Dec 2019 Tue $18.90 -25.00%   $225.10    
25 Dec 2019 Wed $29.67 57.00%   $254.77    
26 Dec 2019 Thu $30.41 2.50%   $285.19 $285.19  
27 Dec 2019 Fri $27.37 -10.00% -69.59% $312.56    
28 Dec 2019 Sat $28.74 5.00% -41.34% $341.30    
29 Dec 2019 Sun $22.99 -20.00% -45.25% $364.30 $79.11 -56.29%
30 Dec 2019 Mon $16.10 -30.00% -36.13% $380.39    
31 Dec 2019 Tue $13.68 -15.00% -27.61% $394.07    
1 Jan 2020 Wed $19.84 45.00% -33.15% $413.91    
2 Jan 2020 Thu $9.92 -50.00% -67.39% $423.83 $138.64 -51.39%
3 Jan 2020 Fri $11.90 20.00% -56.52% $435.73    
4 Jan 2020 Sat $14.88 25.00% -48.24% $450.61    
5 Jan 2020 Sun $9.30 -37.50% -59.56% $459.91 $36.08 -54.39%
6 Jan 2020 Mon $3.07 -67.00% -80.93% $462.98    
7 Jan 2020 Tue $3.01 -2.00% -78.02% $465.99    
8 Jan 2020 Wed $1.80 -40.00% -90.90% $467.79    
9 Jan 2020 Thu $1.66 -8.00% -83.26% $469.45 $45.62 -67.10%
10 Jan 2020 Fri $2.99 80.00% -74.90% $472.44    
11 Jan 2020 Sat $4.48 50.00% -69.88% $476.92    
12 Jan 2020 Sun $2.78 -38.00% -70.12% $479.70 $10.25 -71.59%
13 Jan 2020 Mon $0.69 -75.00% -77.36% $480.39    
14 Jan 2020 Tue $1.01 45.00% -66.50% $481.40    
15 Jan 2020 Wed $0.55 -45.00% -69.29% $481.96    
16 Jan 2020 Thu $0.52 -7.00% -68.96% $482.47 $13.02 -71.46%
17 Jan 2020 Fri $1.08 110.00% -63.79% $483.55    
18 Jan 2020 Sat $2.06 90.00% -54.13% $485.61    
19 Jan 2020 Sun $1.64 -20.00% -40.81% $487.25 $4.78 -53.34%
20 Jan 2020 Mon $1.32 -20.00% 89.39% $488.57    
21 Jan 2020 Tue $0.46 -65.00% -54.28% $489.03    
22 Jan 2020 Wed $0.25 -45.00% -54.28% $489.28    
23 Jan 2020 Thu $0.23 -9.00% -55.27% $489.51 $7.04 -45.91%
24 Jan 2020 Fri $0.50 115.00% -54.20% $490.01    
25 Jan 2020 Sat $0.94 90.00% -54.20% $490.95    
26 Jan 2020 Sun $0.61 -35.00% -62.79% $491.56 $2.05 -57.16%
27 Jan 2020 Mon $0.15 -75.00% -88.37% $491.72    
28 Jan 2020 Tue $0.23 50.00% -50.16% $491.94    
29 Jan 2020 Wed $0.14 -40.00% -45.63% $492.08    
30 Jan 2020 Thu $0.14 0.00% -40.26% $492.22 $2.71 -61.56%
31 Jan 2020 Fri $0.29 110.00% -41.65% $492.51    
1 Feb 2020 Sat $0.58 100.00% -38.58% $493.09    
2 Feb 2020 Sun $0.36 -38.00% -41.41% $493.45 $1.23 -40.16%
3 Feb 2020 Mon $0.08 -78.00% -48.44% $493.53    
4 Feb 2020 Tue $0.12 55.00% -46.72% $493.65    
5 Feb 2020 Wed $0.08 -35.00% -42.28% $493.73    
6 Feb 2020 Thu $0.08 5.00% -39.40% $493.81 $1.59 -41.26%
7 Feb 2020 Fri $0.19 130.00% -33.62% $494.00    
8 Feb 2020 Sat $0.39 105.00% -31.97% $494.40    
9 Feb 2020 Sun $0.18 -55.00% -50.62% $494.57 $0.76 -37.81%
10 Feb 2020 Mon $0.04 -75.00% -43.89% $494.62    
11 Feb 2020 Tue $0.07 50.00% -45.70% $494.68    
12 Feb 2020 Wed $0.04 -40.00% -49.87% $494.72    
13 Feb 2020 Thu $0.04 -10.00% -57.03% $494.76 $0.95 -40.33%
14 Feb 2020 Fri $0.08 130.00% -57.03% $494.84    
15 Feb 2020 Sat $0.17 105.00% -57.03% $495.01    
16 Feb 2020 Sun $0.12 -30.00% -33.16% $495.13 $0.37 -51.49%
17 Feb 2020 Mon $0.07 -40.00% 60.40% $495.20    
18 Feb 2020 Tue $0.04 -50.00% -46.53% $495.24    
19 Feb 2020 Wed $0.02 -55.00% -59.90% $495.25    
20 Feb 2020 Thu $0.01 -10.00% -59.90% $495.27 $0.51 -46.59%

 

495 only?

As our mutual friend would say.

Flop..!! 

Edited by THUNDER BIRD
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44 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

What possible reason could there be for female audiences being less interested in this film than TLJ and TFA?

Maybe they are watching Witcher. Henry Cavill is much more appealing. 

Edited by Madhuvan
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Finally saw TROS tonight.

I went into it cautious, but hopeful, especially with the RT audience rating. 

What a huge disappointment. 

 

It's not even that the movie is terrible. 

There a quite a few parts of the movie that are great even. But the fact that is the way they chose to end the 9 episode saga... for me, it's unforgivable. It was safe, it was lazy, it was un-creative. 

 

To be fair, there was a segment of the audience who applauded afterwards, and I can see how the general movie going public might find it to be an overall decent film. But there were definitely some loud debates from unsatisfied fans as we exited the theatre as well. 

What a shame.

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7 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Its not a point of following TFA itself, its never going to do that. Its a calendar release date in conjunction with the holiday. Same reason that family films didnt hit 100% today and will all hold very very well on Sunday. 

Its the same reason that Jedi, word of mouth being bad or not, couldnt avoid a massive fall in weekend 2 since Christmas Eve was on the actual weekend. 

Its not a point of trying to allow personal opinion to shape the view, but the data we have to look at. Check the 2013 calendar for the last exact same dates and also how other films behaved during 2015 when TFA opened. Its a different set up than if it had opened last weekend.

2013: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-12-22/weekly/

 

2015: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2015-12-20/weekly/

 

what data goes against what i said? in 2013 smaller fri -> sat increases result in bigger sat -> sun decreases. in 2015 there are pretty much no small fri -> sat increases but there are plenty of big sat -> sun decreases. you're actually making me more confident in my prediction by showing historical evidence that movies have big decreases on sunday if the did poorly on saturday.

 

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10 minutes ago, water said:

2013: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2013-12-22/weekly/

 

2015: https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2015-12-20/weekly/

 

what data goes against what i said? in 2013 smaller fri -> sat increases result in bigger sat -> sun decreases. in 2015 there are pretty much no small fri -> sat increases but there are plenty of big sat -> sun decreases. you're actually making me more confident in my prediction by showing historical evidence that movies have big decreases on sunday if the did poorly on saturday.

 

And again, I am being reminded why I choose to not engage with some posters. You are choosing to look at data that only matches your preconceived idea of what it should do instead of what fits the film we are looking at. At worst you are seeing the opening weekend Sunday of a family film in Alvin 4 which btw, didn't indicate bad legs (small opening yes, but decent legs for the time of year.) The rest of wide release new films aimed at general / adult audiences all held well and in some cases significantly well under the 20% mark. 

Are there variations? Of course its data, there will be, but they are all within films with other established behaviors that arent new releases or limiteds that were expanding. 

All I am trying to tell you is that your worst case scenario doesnt hold anything in historical data to back it up, even the one film as a new release that legitimately decreased on Saturday (Sisters) fell a ridiculously well 12% on Sunday.... 

Barring a collapse in attendance data for new releases of major films on this calendar configuration dont show ROS dropping more than 20% 

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6 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

89+49+40=178, *2.8 would do the trick. I think that’s very very unlikely with the calendar configuration, but 🤷‍♂️

Calendar configurations don't mean anything around here these days 😂

 

That being said, behavior of the film over 2.5 days doesnt give me much hope for actual decent legs. I had really hoped that ROS would have been another sith / jedi for 3rd parts but that required an actual decent film from all points of view (havent seen it yet, but obviously some are not happy.) 

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I think it’s tough to predict a film like TROS legs, good or bad, especially during the holiday season with just two data points: opening day and the second day. 
 

Id want to see how the film plays out over the next week or so and see where the second weekend drops. 

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More serious problem is Disney & Lucasfilm might not even know what to do after Skywalker saga. They said they wanna do so many new trilogies, but they can't even keep the 2022 date at this point. Take a break? With Disney's personality, I don't think they would allow this to happen. 

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6 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

That statement was really said a lot though. After TLJ released and before TROS released.

and what about it? there's really no need to keep bringing that up when it's been done a thousand times already. like, literally the same comments are posted every few pages; "oh so much for the good wom narrative", "oh but I've been told it would surpass tlj". we fricking get it lol, it doesn't add much, really.

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5 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

More serious problem is Disney & Lucasfilm might not even know what to do after Skywalker saga. They said they wanna do so many new trilogies, but they can't even keep the 2022 date at this point. Take a break? With Disney's personality, I don't think they would allow this to happen. 

I think they need to continue on with the Disney + shows for now, and theatrically take a long break.

Edited by VanillaSkies
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I mean what are they gonna do? The brand is damaged at this point because of the ST, so the question is how do they win audiences back in a way that they can restore the hype and box office success they had with TFA?

 

I think the best thing they can do is put Star Wars movies on ice for a long time, and focus on television. I know they've got a few shows in the works, but I think they should come up with one show that's their main eventer. Have a show with an endearing and loveable cast of characters, hire brilliant storytellers, and aim the show at adults. Yes, adults. I'm not suggesting to fill a Star Wars show with hardcore violence, sex and cussing. But give it a more mature tone. Star Wars at it's best, has always taken the more mature and serious approach to storytelling.

 

 

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