Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[Legion Again]

The F2 number would be a slightly better % of last weekend than F1 had. Much better vs Mon too. Just looks like a small jump since Eve was good.      
 

Now Jumanji/KO had great Eves and great Christmases, so who knows what’s going on there beside pleasing crowds very well.   
 

I was going to be pretty impressed if 35 hampered honestly, 33 is still perfectly solid.

[narniadis]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Jumanji is actually the movie being held down most by its showings...my area is pretty much sold out for tomorrow's showings today...and was sold out for today's yesterday...it could have the longest "leg" over the next week+ b/c it literally can't meet the needs of the audience this week...

I would agree which means we are definitely in for a good next 8 days or so and definitely aiming for the 270+ area.

[jedijake]

December 26 is an iffy day. Most big blockbusters increased from Christmas to the 26th with a few exceptions of smaller hits. Notable increases include Two Towers (+24%), Hobbit2 (+13%), Hobbit3 (+18.9%), Force Awakens (+14%), Rogue One (+24%), Night at Museum (+14%), Sherlock: Game of Shadows (+12.6%), Avatar (22%), King Kong (+35%), ROTK (+37%).

Hobbit 1 and TLJ only increased about 1-1.5% (still flat). 

 

Last year's movies all seemed to fall a bit on the 26th. For whatever reason, Jumanji WTTJ fell around 11% on the 26th in 2017.

 

So if we were going with the vase majority, TROS has a good chance of at least staying nearly flat or increasing a little bit. The later in the week, the better movies seemed to increase on the 26th.

 

I'd expect a sizable increase for Frozen 2 tomorrow if it indeed stayed flat today.

Edited December 26, 2019 by jedijake

[narniadis]

3 minutes ago, jedijake said:

December 26 is an iffy day. Most big blockbusters increased from Christmas to the 26th with a few exceptions of smaller hits. Notable increases include Two Towers (+24%), Hobbit2 (+13%), Hobbit3 (+18.9%), Force Awakens (+14%), Rogue One (+24%), Night at Museum (+14%), Sherlock: Game of Shadows (+12.6%), Avatar (22%), King Kong (+35%), ROTK (+37%).

Hobbit 1 and TLJ only increased about 1-1.5% (still flat). 

 

Last year's movies all seemed to fall a bit on the 26th. For whatever reason, Jumanji WTTJ fell around 11% on the 26th in 2017.

 

So if we were going with the vase majority, TROS has a good chance of at least staying nearly flat or increasing a little bit. The later in the week, the better movies seemed to increase on the 26th.

 

I'd expect a sizable increase for Frozen 2 tomorrow if it indeed stayed flat today.

Frozen didnt stay flat.... 

Also the 26th and how it plays depends on the day of the week as well. 

I would imagine based on the last few years ROS being flat is the upper best scenario to.hope for versus being disappointed. 

[charlie Jatinder]

Christmas is most senseless week. Anything happens.

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Frozen didnt stay flat.... 

Also the 26th and how it plays depends on the day of the week as well. 

I would imagine based on the last few years ROS being flat is the upper best scenario to.hope for versus being disappointed. 

Presales for tomorrow kinda low based on @keysersoze123 scraper so flat would be a good result for sure.

[YM!]

How’s Spies looking?

[narniadis]

Overall looks like a solid / great Christmas day with plenty of wealth spread around. 6+ for Little Women definitely sets it up for 30m+ 5day. 

Spies is aiming for the tracking of 20m which is sad, but maybe the wom is solid enough to generate legs. 

Good expansion for Adam Sandler too.

[jedijake]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Presales for tomorrow kinda low based on @keysersoze123 scraper so flat would be a good result for sure.

So if it sinks a little tomorrow, should we expect a spike again for Friday and Saturday?

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 minute ago, Jedi Jat said:

Christmas is most senseless week. Anything happens.

What are your expectations and forecast for Little Women this week? Over 30m 5day?

[Eric Atreides]

41 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

LW ~ 6.25 True OD

Spies ~ 4.5 True OD

UG ~ 4.5 True OD

Using the 2013 Xmas Day openers as a comparison:

 

Wolf of Wall Street: 9.15

Walter Mitty: 7.8

47 Ronin: 7

Grudge Match 3.96

 

Yeah, that seems pretty poor for both Little Women and arguably Spies, though great for Gems, though we'll see if WOM will be on that movie's side.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Christmas is most senseless week. Anything happens.

And the crazy bit is that each year is different since its moves around the calendar 😂😂

Next year with it being on Friday again makes it a tad easier to project.

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, Eric Laurence said:

Using the 2013 Xmas Day openers as a comparison:

 

Wolf of Wall Street: 9.15

Walter Mitty: 7.8

47 Ronin: 7

Grudge Match 3.96

 

Yeah, that seems pretty poor for both Little Women and arguably Spies, though great for Gems, though we'll see if WOM will be on that movie's side.

Little women will come in above tracking so Im not sure how it would appear as poor? 

Spies will sadly meet tracking but overall its performance has been slated as a failure for a while now. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

So if it sinks a little tomorrow, should we expect a spike again for Friday and Saturday?

Idk, we really don't have a good comp for such a huge blockbuster opening in this calendar configuration. 

[AdrianL]

Knives Out is really benefiting from Richard Jewell and Black Christmas tanking. 120m+ looking good.

[Eric Atreides]

6 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Little women will come in above tracking so Im not sure how it would appear as poor? 

I dunno man, I felt that with the reviews and prestige and famous novel, it could have done something like 8M or 9M for its OD.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

I dunno man, I felt that with the reviews and prestige and famous novel, it could have done something like 8M or 9M for its OD.

But you feeling like it and the film surpassing expectations are not the same thing? Outside of prestige there wasnt a reason to open bigger than it is. I mean the last adaptation back in the early 1990s didnt make a dent box office wise with a decent star in the center (Winona Ryder) for the time frame. 

Its not a Leo film from Scorcese and ultimately lets hope it doesnt play out like Walter Mitty 😂

[ViewerAnon]

1 hour ago, Jedi Jat said:

KO ~ 4.25

😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲😲

[LegendaryBen]

18 minutes ago, AdrianL said:

Knives Out is really benefiting from Richard Jewell and Black Christmas tanking. 120m+ looking good.

If that 4.25m Wednesday holds for KO and if it doesn't drop dramatically tomorrow, 150m is on the table. Regardless, 120m is definitely locked. 

Edited December 26, 2019 by LegendaryBen

[keysersoze123]

at 7PM SW9 is 13.5% ahead of Monday final at MTC1 and just under 10% ahead at MTC2. Evening shows are super strong. Let us hope it increases from early estimates.