Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[Boxofficerules]

Is Black Christmas doing well on Xmas day?

[ChiSoxRox]

1 minute ago, LegendaryBen said:

If that 4.25m Wednesday holds for KO and if it doesn't drop dramatically tomorrow, 140m is on the table. Regardless, 120m is definitely locked. 

Such a deserving film too. It's pretty heartwarming to see its trajectory consistently tick up.

[JB33]

13 minutes ago, narniadis said:

And the crazy bit is that each year is different since its moves around the calendar 😂😂

Next year with it being on Friday again makes it a tad easier to project.

I've said it before: I think December 18 is the single best date on the entire calendar for a movie to open. It's just the perfect configuration.

[a2k]

Spies rough guess (cume in braces)

4.5+3.5 = 8 (8)

4+4.5+3.5 = 12 (20)

3+3+4+2.25 = 12.25 (32.25)

3+4.5+2.75 = 10.25 (42.5)

 

42.5+10.25*2.0 = 63 dom

Reported prod budget is 111.

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, JB33 said:

I've said it before: I think December 18 is the single best date on the entire calendar for a movie to open. It's just the perfect configuration.

It is, but especially if it's a Friday  (as seen by TFA). Its like literally 2 back to back weeks of holidays on Fridays which inflate things much more than usual. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, a2k said:

Spies rough guess (cume in braces)

4.5+3.5 = 8 (8)

4+4.5+3.5 = 12 (20)

3+3+4+2.25 = 12.25 (32.25)

3+4.5+2.75 = 10.25 (42.5)

 

42.5+10.25*2.0 = 63 dom

Reported prod budget is 111.

Ugh, there wasnt a good reason for this to fail either. Feel like Disney and to an extent Fox really didnt buy into the film. 

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, narniadis said:

It is, but especially if it's a Friday  (as seen by TFA). Its like literally 2 back to back weeks of holidays on Fridays which inflate things much more than usual. 

I think JB33 was assuming a standard Friday open. All Dec 18 Fri openers get to enjoy that schedule, but only available in 14% of years or so.

[narniadis]

Just now, Arendelle Legion said:

I think JB33 was assuming a standard Friday open. All Dec 18 Fri openers get to enjoy that schedule, but only available in 14% of years or so.

Yes, I should always clarify if I am specifying for new peeps. 😂

Although this year's calendar with it being a Wednesday would theoretically be pretty strong too with the right film and set up.

[JB33]

5 minutes ago, narniadis said:

It is, but especially if it's a Friday  (as seen by TFA). Its like literally 2 back to back weeks of holidays on Fridays which inflate things much more than usual. 

Oh yeah sorry. That's what I meant. Friday December 18. Coincidentally the date helped Avatar on its historical run as well. Before Endgame both the top 2 highest grossing films domestically released on Friday December 18.

 

EDIT: Already addressed.

Edited December 26, 2019 by JB33

[keysersoze123]

PS for tomorrow will be less than today but it will have better walkins. I would say it stays flat or drops a tad from today.

[narniadis]

17 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Oh yeah sorry. That's what I meant. Friday December 18. Coincidentally the date helped Avatar on its historical run as well. Before Endgame both the top 2 highest grossing films domestically released on Friday December 18.

And so did Titanic 😉

 

Edit - misread BOM lol December 18th was an overseas date apparently. 

Edited December 26, 2019 by narniadis

[JB33]

Just now, keysersoze123 said:

PS for tomorrow will be less than today but it will have better walkins. I would say it stays flat or drops a tad from today.

Boxing Day Thursday was really weird in 2013. Films either jumped a lot or dropped a lot. Not much stayed flat. Absolutely no rhyme or reason. I'm thinking it has to do with genre maybe....?

 

I had zero idea of what to expect tomorrow so thanks for this update.

[JB33]

Just now, narniadis said:

And so did Titanic 😉

What? No way!

 

Nope. December 19. So Christmas was on Thursday and Boxing Day on Friday. Probably the 2nd best date though! Still, though. The point remains. That's no accident. I have no doubt Jim Cameron is annoyed as hell at Avatar 2 moving from December 18, 2020 to December 17, 2021. It's a Christmaa holiday date so still lucrative but Christmas Eve on a Friday?

 

[a2k]

Dec 18 Fri, 2020

 

December 18	Coming to America 2 (Wide)	Paramount Pictures
	Dune (Wide)	Warner Bros.
	Uncharted (Wide)	Sony Pictures
	West Side Story (Wide)	20th Century Fox

 

[Ryan Reynolds]

Disney has been reporting their actual daily figures for Skywalker at $1M-$2M below what the industry has been estimating.

 

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-christmas-box-office-little-women-spies-in-disguise-1202816735/

 

1.) Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker (Dis) 4,406 theaters Wed $35M (+75%)/3-day: $92M (-48%)/5-day: $160M/Cume: $386.8M/Wk 2

2.) Jumanji: Next Level (Sony) 4,227 theaters Wed $12.5M (+84%)/3-day $42M (+58%)/5-day $69M/Cume: $185.4M/Wk 3

3.) Frozen 2 (Dis) 3665 theaters (-413), Wed $3.5M (+3%)/3 day: $15.5M (+19%)/5-day: $24M/Cume: $419.1M/Wk 6

4.) Knives Out (LG/MRC) 2535 theaters (-878), Wed $4.5M (+169%)/3-day $13.5M/5-day $20M/Cume: $113.4M/Wk 5

5.) Little Women (Sony) 3,308 theaters Wed. $7M/3-day $12.5M/5-day $24M/Wk 1

6.) Spies in Disguise (Fox/Dis) 3,502 theaters Wed. $5M/3-day $12M/5-day 21M/Wk 1

7.) Uncut Gems (A24) 2,341 theaters (+2336) Wed $6M /3-day $11M (+4464%)/5-day $21M/Cume $22.1M/Wk 3

8.) Cats (Uni) 3,380 theaters/Wed $2M (+85%)/3-day $6.8M (+3%)/5-day $11.5M/Cume $20.5M/Wk 2

9.) Bombshell (LG) 1480 theaters (+1476), Wed. $2.3M (+162%)/3-day $6M (+18%)/5-day $10.5M/Cume $17.8M/Wk 3

10.) Richard Jewell (WB) 2502 theaters, Wed $1.4M (+157%)/3-day $4M (+55%)/5-day $6.7M/Cume $17.3M/Wk 3

Edited December 26, 2019 by Ryan Reynolds

[Legion Again]

5 minutes ago, a2k said:

Dec 18 Fri, 2020

 

December 18	Coming to America 2 (Wide)	Paramount Pictures
	Dune (Wide)	Warner Bros.
	Uncharted (Wide)	Sony Pictures
	West Side Story (Wide)	20th Century Fox

 

If Uncharted can’t hit the date, would be fun for Disney to swap Eternals and WSS.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Nice to see LW rise to 7m. Surely making more than 24m 5day at that rate 

 

6m for Gems is incredible 

[a2k]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

If Uncharted can’t hit the date, would be fun for Disney to swap Eternals and WSS.

GVK wouldn't mind that.

[narniadis]

10 minutes ago, JB33 said:

What? No way!

 

Nope. December 19. So Christmas was on Thursday and Boxing Day on Friday. Probably the 2nd best date though! Still, though. The point remains. That's no accident. I have no doubt Jim Cameron is annoyed as hell at Avatar 2 moving from December 18, 2020 to December 17, 2021. It's a Christmaa holiday date so still lucrative but Christmas Eve on a Friday?

 

Yeah, corrected my post - BOM shows it as 12/18 but then once you click further in it shows domestic as the 19th 🤦‍♂️

[Legion Again]

Looks like a typo on F2 Wed from Deadline. Otherwise they’re expecting +43% Thursday.