Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[baumer]

19 minutes ago, Lordmandeep said:

350 million by Sunday would guarantee 500 million.

 

I don't see any reason why it doesn't have the multiplier of at least what the Last Jedi had. That would bring it up to around 575 million. I still think there's an outside chance it gets to 600.

[Krissykins]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

Have you seen cats and its entirety or even part of it? And if you haven't don't hold your breath on it being any good. I saw how about 15 or 20 minutes of it yesterday and it's fucking horrible.

Yeh I went to see it on Saturday. 
 

The show was my first ever stage show experience when I was a kid and I actually enjoyed the film. Thought it was a faithful adaptation. 
 

I’ve noticed a lot of critics saying it has no story, but neither does the show. So I was ok with it. I’d say 3/5. 

[Madhuvan]

I also like Cats, don't understand what you all were expecting. 

[jedijake]

Is @Jedi JatCharlie Jitender? Since I'm no there THAT often, I just realized this a few days ago (if true). Silly me!

 

I'm using Hobbit: DOS and (believe it or not) TFA (for some of the days this week) as comparisons. Just flipping the days a little. DOS and TROS had similar audience reactions. DOS came out a week earlier but that can help with the comparisons actually because it makes up for the fact that it already had some burn out while TROS has more overall $$$ meaning it can afford slightly bigger drops to be a good comparison. 

Monday, Dec. 23-$29 mill

Tues, December 24: $20 million

Wed, December 25: $33 million

Thurs, December 26: $34 million

Friday, December 27: $32 million

Saturday, December 28: $34 million

Sunday, December 29: $25 million 

Total: $384 million

[fmpro]

7 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Is @Jedi JatCharlie Jitender? Since I'm no there THAT often, I just realized this a few days ago (if true). Silly me!

 

I'm using Hobbit: DOS and (believe it or not) TFA (for some of the days this week) as comparisons. Just flipping the days a little. DOS and TROS had similar audience reactions. DOS came out a week earlier but that can help with the comparisons actually because it makes up for the fact that it already had some burn out while TROS has more overall $$$ meaning it can afford slightly bigger drops to be a good comparison. 

Monday, Dec. 23-$29 mill

Tues, December 24: $20 million

Wed, December 25: $33 million

Thurs, December 26: $34 million

Friday, December 27: $32 million

Saturday, December 28: $34 million

Sunday, December 29: $25 million 

Total: $384 million

He`s the same yes

[titanic2187]

24 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Is @Jedi JatCharlie Jitender? Since I'm no there THAT often, I just realized this a few days ago (if true). Silly me!

 

I'm using Hobbit: DOS and (believe it or not) TFA (for some of the days this week) as comparisons. Just flipping the days a little. DOS and TROS had similar audience reactions. DOS came out a week earlier but that can help with the comparisons actually because it makes up for the fact that it already had some burn out while TROS has more overall $$$ meaning it can afford slightly bigger drops to be a good comparison. 

Monday, Dec. 23-$29 mill

Tues, December 24: $20 million

Wed, December 25: $33 million

Thurs, December 26: $34 million

Friday, December 27: $32 million

Saturday, December 28: $34 million

Sunday, December 29: $25 million 

Total: $384 million

He was lately selected as one of the member in Jedi Council. 

[George Parr]

1 hour ago, misafeco said:

I was thinking about how the calendar will effect the grosses in the upcoming 2 weeks. New Year on Wednesday is probably great news as a lot of people will be still on vacation for the rest of the week as it only requires 2 days off. TLJ was less fortunate because 1st of Jan was on Monday, it's probably the reason Disney decided to send to theaters 1 week earlier.

I don't know if that is going to make much of a difference.

 

Looking back at the week-to-week drops, Hobbit 2 under the same scenario went with -16.7%, +5%, -16.3%, -61.5% and then -49.1% on Friday.

In comparison, Hobbit 1, which had the 1st on Tuesday instead of Wednesday, went +0.3%, -15.9%, -60.9%, -62.1% and then -51.3%.

 

There might still be a slight boost, dropping only 60% week-to-week instead of the 70%+ you often see under other circumstances, but the effect seems rather limited, especially when compared to the 1st falling onto a Thursday or Friday. You also run into even harsher drops the week after. The Hobbit movies dropped over 80% at times in their following set of weekdays, while movies that had the 1st on the weekend or on Monday already moved back to generic 40-50% drops.

[Menor the Destroyer]

5 hours ago, JB33 said:

The other projection I did in the TROS thread was based on the Hobbit 2 pattern. Sorry, the wording there was confusing. 

 

You bring up a good point though. There's no way Friday is flat from Monday. Gahd, projections aren't my thing clearly.

EG's 2nd Friday wasn't much bigger than its non holiday Monday, hell even TFA's Christmas Day Friday had a less than 25% bump. This has a super boosted holiday Monday and will have burned through a ton of demand so I can see it happening.

[misafeco]

45 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

He was lately selected as one of the member in Jedi Council. 

The million dollar question: Did they grant him the rank of Master as well? 

[titanic2187]

4 minutes ago, misafeco said:

The million dollar question: Did they grant him the rank of Master as well? 

No, he is the Chancellor's personal representative in the Jedi council.  

[a2k]

29+20+31+32 = 112 Mon-Thu

31+31+23 = 85 2nd weekend (-52%)

17+14+19+9 = 59 Mon-Thu

12+16+9 = 37 3rd weekend (-60%)

470 cume

 

470+37*2.4 = ~560 (3.15x multi)

[MovieMan89]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

I don't see any reason why it doesn't have the multiplier of at least what the Last Jedi had. That would bring it up to around 575 million. I still think there's an outside chance it gets to 600.

Umm, TLJ’s multi gets it to 495....

[MikeQ]

To be specific, technically TLJ had a 2.82 multiplier.  At a $177.38M opening weekend for TROS x 2.82 = 500.2M total.  (The annoying statistician in me...)

 

Peace,

Mike

[baumer]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Umm, TLJ’s multi gets it to 495....

 

Ummm it'll get way more than that.

[baumer]

I've said for 2 years now that this will have a better multiplier than the Last Jedi. This film is definitely divisive but it's not hated the way the Last Jedi was. I'm going with over a 3 multiplier and I think it has a good chance of getting the 600.

[MovieMan89]

9 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Ummm it'll get way more than that.

Ok, but 575 is not TLJ’s multi. No reason to believe it does more than a 3x (530)

[cdsacken]

Yeah for me 540 is the minimum. Probably 20-60 more.

 

Plenty reason. It will hold well all January in theaters.

Edited December 24, 2019 by cdsacken

[The Horror of Lucas Films]

10 hours ago, redfirebird2008 said:

$206M in 4 days. I remember when that was a huge deal in 5 days with TDK and fudge-packing TF2. Now we have people acting like it’s a big letdown in 4 days. Pretty interesting how inflation changes our views on these box office numbers. 

Considering that TFA (adjusted) did $200m in TWO days, you can't blame people for being disappointed that the final movie took 4 days, and some inflation, to reach it. 

[MovieMan89]

Any remotely smooth course for this trilogy would have easily put TROS at a 300+ OW given TFA’s performance/reception. Of course these numbers aren’t going to seem impressive in context. 

[misafeco]

Around 550 would be a decent run for TROS. Everything on top of that is a bonus.

 

We will have a clearer vision after seeing how this week plays out.

I just hope that some people won't compare the Monday number to TLJ's first Monday and take it as a sign of great legs incoming.