Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[Cappoedameron]

42 minutes ago, a2k said:

RO and TROS will be very close in the amount added post-OW.

248 + 689 = 937 TFA (3.78x)

220 + 400 = 620 TLJ (2.82x)

177 + 378 = 555 TROS (3.13x)

155 + 377 = 532 RO (3.43x)

  86 + 127 = 213 SOLO (2.48x)

This is just sad. The finale of the entire saga is being compared with a spin off/one off entry in terms of box office. I'm pretty sure Disney did not expect this when they bought Star Wars.

[George Parr]

Just now, Cappoedameron said:

This is just sad. The finale of the entire saga is being compared with a spin off/one off entry in terms of box office. I'm pretty sure Disney did not expect this when they bought Star Wars.

They probably also didn't expect for TFA to slaughter everything - including Avatar - domestically, and finishing above 2b worldwide either...

[Cappoedameron]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

They probably also didn't expect for TFA to slaughter everything - including Avatar - domestically, and finishing above 2b worldwide either...

Oh I'm sure they expected that and if they didn't there idiots. The film that reunites the audience with the original characters, plus adding new ones to the story. Who wouldn't expect that to break records? What they did not expect is what TLJ would do to the value of the IP going forward.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Cappoedameron

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

Christmas actuals? What sorcery is this?

[sfran43]

 

[George Parr]

17 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Oh I'm sure they expected that and if they didn't there idiots. The film that reunites the audience with the original characters, plus adding new ones to the story. Who wouldn't expect that to break records? What they did not expect is what TLJ would do to the value of the IP going forward.

Lol, just no.

 

No one in their right mind would have expected that. The last movie that came before didn't do anything like that at all. Heck, even TPM didn't have that kind of success, and that was the return of Star Wars in the first place. Go and look at the general expectations around the years 2014 and early 2015. You might find the odd person who believed it could get past Avatar, but that was still far away from topping 900m, and the opinion was also far away from being the norm. It wasn't even the consensus that the movie would win the year, not after The Avengers had made 620m and Age of Ultron was coming up. Again, the "last Star Wars movie ever" (ROTS) made 380m domestically. Even with the return of the original characters, basically no one believed that TFA would way more than double that total.

 

It wasn't until presales went bonkers that more people started to get the idea that this would be one for the ages, instead of just a really huge blockbuster. And even then it was more about "could / would it beat Avatar", not "will it get to 1b or not".

Edited December 26, 2019 by George Parr

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

Expecting 936M DOM would be crazy, but expecting 2B WW would have been about right imo. Episode 1 became #2 WW after all.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Yeah the consensus back in 2015 was that Ultron would win the year while we weren't sure whether TFA could crack $600M or not and Jurassic World was like estimated to be $200M lol

Edited December 26, 2019 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

I remember being on  a forum and the Consensus seemed to be about 1.3-1.5 Billion

around Avengers 1 with a 600 DOm+ total seemed to the High end

this was before AOU came out.

Edited December 26, 2019 by Jabba'sMoofmilker

[Justin4125]

1 hour ago, Cappoedameron said:

Oh I'm sure they expected that and if they didn't there idiots. The film that reunites the audience with the original characters, plus adding new ones to the story. Who wouldn't expect that to break records? What they did not expect is what TLJ would do to the value of the IP going forward.

I deleted my post because I agree with narniadis, I apologize for engaging. To recap my previously overlong response, I agree with George Parr, TFA's success was unpredictable on many levels, and it would be misguided to contextualize TROS's success with the success of both TFA and RO. They set a bar far higher than Disney (or any other studio) could have anticipated. As a sidenote, the return on their investment in SW also exceeded expectations. Read through their annual reports, merch sales from SW alone would help them recoup that 4bn over time. Between movies, tv, video games and park attractions, the SW IP has more than justified the acquisition.

So, despite releasing 5 movies in 4 years, and despite losing a substantial audience following TLJ and Solo, SW films can still clear $1bn. TROS isn't as big a success as Disney would have hoped *after* (and only after) TFA, but it still proves the power of the SW IP. BO returns diminished over the trilogy, but this is largely separate from the long-term value of the IP

Edited December 26, 2019 by Justin4125

[narniadis]

This is again where I encourage people to put the trolls on ignore and not engage them 😂 that poster is a one way ticket to trollville. 

 

@Arendelle Legion Disney usually gives actuals throughout the holiday stretch, so its not really surprising. If we get actuals for all then that would be a big deviation in behavior. 

[Justin4125]

25 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Expecting 936M DOM would be crazy, but expecting 2B WW would have been about right imo. Episode 1 became #2 WW after all.

2bn was equally crazy, especially to expect such numbers. You might have 2bn somewhere in a wide probability distribution, but Disney's financial analysts could not reasonably model that as an expected outcome.

You can't look at Episode 1 a decade+ earlier and expect TFA to repeat that level of success, especially since the movies following Ep1 declined at the BO and each new trilogy carries many latent risks. Are audiences still as engaged? Would they all embrace a new trilogy? Will younger markets like China be on board? Additionally, there was no way of knowing that the film would get such solid audience reception and exceptional critical reviews. Clearly the SW brand gives you a high bar, but 2bn was a very unexpected result

[Andreas]

1 hour ago, sfran43 said:

 

$350K up, yay

 

44 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

I remember being on  a forum and the Consensus seemed to be about 1.3-1.5 Billion

around Avengers 1 with a 600 DOm+ total seemed to the High end

this was before AOU came out.

So TLJ numbers were expected for TFA

[Brainbug]

16 minutes ago, Andreas said:

$350K up, yay

 

So TLJ numbers were expected for TFA

 

Yes, in that ballpark. Before 2015 began, Age of Ultron was the movie with the 2B predictions, Jurassic World wasnt even expected to reach 300M DOM and it was heavily debated where TFA would land. I remember my prediction to be 550M DOM and 1,2B Worldwide.

[sfran43]

 

[DAJK]

Thought about doing a Top of 2019 list over the Holidays, but there's still so much I want to catch up on. Think I'm going to do my list around mid-February, or around Oscar time. Will also do a Best of the Decade list if I have the time. 

[cdsacken]

Jesus. What could have been with Lion King! Ugh