Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Aquaman crushed Solo pretty much everywhere. Who's to say how well a non Skywalker movie would do? Aquaman 2 is gonna be delivering crazy spectacle that I'm not sure the 2022 SW would be able to compete with.

If it turns out to be Old Republic that is in the middle of one of those big Jedi vs Sith wars I think you can count on a lot of people choosing to watch Star Wars over Aquaman.

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 minute ago, RockyMountain said:

If it turns out to be Old Republic that is in the middle of one of those big Jedi vs Sith wars I think you can count on a lot of people choosing to watch Star Wars over Aquaman.

Who's to say it will? We don't know anything about it so far. Anyway I have not seen the level of spectacle in the last 5 films to make me think that there will be a serious effort to compete with Aquaman 2 on that front.

[Nova]

No movie should be scared of Star Wars domestically or OS. The first Jumanji went toe to toe with it just fine. Jumanji 2 is holding its own. A year and a half ago Han Solo got slaughtered at the BO after opening after IW and Deadpool 2. 
 

So why would Aquaman 2 worry about Star Wars? Especially since the first was so well liked. If anything Star Wars is the one that should be concerned. If a movie like Aquaman opens against SW it’ll wipe the floor with it OS, and domestically it’ll be closer than you guys think. 

Edited December 27, 2019 by Nova

[RockyMountain]

2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Who's to say it will? We don't know anything about it so far. Anyway I have not seen the level of spectacle in the last 5 films to make me think that there will be a serious effort to compete with Aquaman 2 on that front.

They will likely announce what it is during Celebration. Just think about those Game of Thrones battles we had during the show and multiply that by about ten and that would be what an onscreen battle would be like for a potential Old Republic movie.

[Zakiyyah6]

 

9 minutes ago, Nova said:

No movie should be scared of Star Wars domestically or OS. The first Jumanji went toe to toe with it just fine. Jumanji 2 is holding its own. A year and a half ago Han Solo got slaughtered at the BO after opening after IW and Deadpool 2. 
 

So why would Aquaman 2 worry about Star Wars? Especially since the first was so well liked. If anything Star Wars is the one that should be concerned. If a movie like Aquaman opens against SW it’ll wipe the floor with it OS, and domestically it’ll be closer than you guys think. 

They are still living in 2015. Skywalker had "end of the series" hype and still won't outgross The Last Jedi which had lackluster legs due to a mixed reception.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Zakiyyah6

[lilmac]

17 hours ago, Jonwo said:

I imagine they don't want to have Dwayne Johnson competing with himself as Black Adam is due out in the same period.

Yea, good point 

[Minnale101]

Aqua man won’t be scared of Star Wars lol 

[DAJK]

Disney should postpone the new SW films to 2024/26/28, and focus the next 5 years on re-building goodwill for the franchise. Mandalorian seems like a good start; if Obi Wan is good, they could do a smaller straight to Disney+ feature in 2022 or 2023 before doing another theatrical release for 2024. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

They will likely announce what it is during Celebration. Just think about those Game of Thrones battles we had during the show and multiply that by about ten and that would be what an onscreen battle would be like for a potential Old Republic movie.

That requires many things to go right including them putting more effort into the set pieces than they have been, proper execution, and great imagination, plus LF going in that direction in the first place. While Aquaman 2 is pretty much guaranteed to have exceptional action and visuals.

 

There's a reason that the first was so successful.

[John Marston]

18 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

I think you might be forgetting that a Star Wars movie that scored a 57% on RT is still on route to gross over 500m domestic and over a billion worldwide. There is an absolute huge appetite for Star Wars when it can have a movie reviewed that poorly and still make that much.

Yeah this movie is making that much because it was heavily promoted as the Endgame of SW movies. Despite that it will still drop from TLJ  domestically and take a decent tumble overseas 

[SchumacherFTW]

4 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Disney should postpone the new SW films to 2024/26/28, and focus the next 5 years on re-building goodwill for the franchise. Mandalorian seems like a good start; if Obi Wan is good, they could do a smaller straight to Disney+ feature in 2022 or 2023 before doing another theatrical release for 2024. 

Wait longer. 2030 at the earliest before the next big screen adventure. 

[Nova]

8 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

 

They are still living in 2015. Skywalker had "end of the series" hype and still won't outgross The Last Jedi which had lackluster legs due to a mixed reception.

I mean don’t get me wrong, I still think a Star Wars movie can pull in numbers but unless they change their strategy then I’m not sure a billion is gonna happen for future SW movies. It seems like the Mandalorian is being very well received so if they translate that to the big screen they’ll be fine.

 

 Luckily for SW, Disney owns so many properties now that when it comes to other franchise films opening up against SW the only competition it’ll have is from DC. But I have no doubt that studios in general won’t be running from a Star Wars film anymore like say they would have after TFA opened. 

[RockyMountain]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Disney should postpone the new SW films to 2024/26/28, and focus the next 5 years on re-building goodwill for the franchise. Mandalorian seems like a good start; if Obi Wan is good, they could do a smaller straight to Disney+ feature in 2022 or 2023 before doing another theatrical release for 2024. 

As much as people like to say that goodwill needs to be rebuilt all these movies that people are saying hurt all the good will still made over a billion dollars. The only other series of movies that has been able to accomplish such a feat has been the Avengers movies.

Edited December 27, 2019 by RockyMountain

[Feanor]

13 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

They will likely announce what it is during Celebration. Just think about those Game of Thrones battles we had during the show and multiply that by about ten and that would be what an onscreen battle would be like for a potential Old Republic movie.

I would argue that we didn’t even get spectacles as epic as the Battle of Bastards with the Sequel Trilogy.

Honestly, even the final battle in TROS with all those thousands of ships and Star Destroyers felt very underwhelming.

 

So I don’t really trust Lucasfilm to deliver something like what you describe with the new Star Wars movies, especially not with the first movie, where they would first need to establish the timeline and the new characters & setting.

General audiences have no clue what The Old Republic is about.

 

Also based on how Lucasfilm is developing Star Wars right now (Sequel Trilogy, The Mandalorian, Jedi: Fallen Order), everything is pointing towards another “small-scale” or Western-ish Star Wars story and not to the Galaxy-spanning true sci-fi epic that you seem to want.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Feanor

[Jonwo]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Disney should postpone the new SW films to 2024/26/28, and focus the next 5 years on re-building goodwill for the franchise. Mandalorian seems like a good start; if Obi Wan is good, they could do a smaller straight to Disney+ feature in 2022 or 2023 before doing another theatrical release for 2024. 

A five year break would do the franchise a world of good and even then it won't be completely out of the public's mind due to things like the Mandalorian and Obi-Wan. 

 

 

[Avatree]

14 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

 

They are still living in 2015. Skywalker had "end of the series" hype and still won't outgross The Last Jedi which had lackluster legs due to a mixed reception.

You know, most people did not expect Skywalker to outgross Last Jedi even in best case scenario...

drop off after TLJ was inevitable. Not sure why you say it like it is a bad thing.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, RockyMountain said:

I think it will stay. They have another Star Wars celebration coming in spring and I think they will announce who is directing the 2022 movie and what it is about at that time.

Director is being announced in January

[reddevil19]

This is giving me flashbacks to Aquaman vs Mary Poppins juggernaut...

Now, let's say the next SW is a KOTOR movie, with loads of light saber spectacle - think that ship has sailed for Asia and Latin America. They needed huge epic action in TFA and that didn't bring anything new to the table. Good visuals, but nothing innovative or spectacular.

 

But, yes, domestic and Europe will eat it up, sure. AQM2 should still stay put. The first one didn't do gangbusters in most of the traditional Western markets, so there's room for growth, and a bigger launch than the first, with Christmas legs, will help that. Maintain the original's release strategy, target China and some other major Asian and LATAM markets first, by releasing it 1-2 weeks in advance, and even with a flat domestic performance (or even a 10-15% drop), it's still looking at a WW take to match or beat the original's. Not to mention that a well-received Batman and Black Adam to precede it will just help boost AQM2, via the DC brand. As such, even on the high end of expectations for SW (1.1 billion, which is quite unlikely, given the trend), AQM2 still comes out on top and makes more than in a different slot. So...really, why move?

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Hot take: they can both co exist by thriving on the markets where they are strong.

 

Though I think we should lower the standard to what these f star wars films should reach.

 

I think 600-800 Million would be a good baseline.

Edited December 27, 2019 by Jabba'sMoofmilker

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, Avatree said:

You know, most people did not expect Skywalker to outgross Last Jedi even in best case scenario...

drop off after TLJ was inevitable. Not sure why you say it like it is a bad thing.

 

nah many people not just here but across the net said an increase over TLJ was a certainty because it was the "finale of the Skywalker saga" and because ROTJ and ROTS increased over their predecessors