Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, mikee11 said:

Dumbest thing is Aquaman delivered on so much spectacle and epic fantasy landscapes and monster battle (too much some would say) and it costed like half of TLJ/TFA. They think they're real filmmakers or something

George said he waited for technology to get better for the prequels to be made and they were groundbreaking,this new trilogy could have been so much more, but idiot big head directors fall for youtube memes hurr CGI bad.

Aquaman had a lower budget than many films with less impressive spectacle. Just shows that good spectacle isn't just about how technically well done the effects are but also about how imaginative and interesting they are.

[sfran43]

Actual came in a bit higher

[lorddemaxus]

6 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

A Knights of the Old Republic film will Slaughter Aquaman Domestically.

No one outside of Star Wars fans knows what the Knights of the Old Republic is. And it's gonna be too dark for a Christmas movie either way and will have mediocre WoM outside of the fanbase.

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

Tomorrow's gross is gonna be a hard pill to Swallow

[MrGlass2]

A SW movie can still do fine if it is polished and gets good reviews, but it needs to move away from the Aquaman tsunami.

[lorddemaxus]

1 minute ago, Menor said:

Aquaman had a lower budget than many films with less impressive spectacle. Just shows that good spectacle isn't just about how technically well done the effects are but also about how imaginative and interesting they are.

Also helps to have a great director who knows how to shoot action sequences. The camerawork in the movie was great and really showed the scale of the battles in the movie (which I feel is mostly missing in these big battle sequences in blockbuster films).

[Bobbybuilderton]

35 minutes ago, a2k said:

Had forgotten about this

 

 

i love reading back through shit like this

 

" I just don’t see this doing less than $400M domestically. " we really had no idea did we

Edited December 27, 2019 by Bobbybuilderton

[reddevil19]

7 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Here is what John Campea said about the Star Wars and Aquaman thing

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OhGK9cBtp8

LOL.

[RockyMountain]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

LOL.

I know some don't like Campea but he is still more reasonable than 99% of the other personalities out there and he is a hundred times better than many of the anti- Disney Star Wars channels are.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

Also helps to have a great director who knows how to shoot action sequences. The camerawork in the movie was great and really showed the scale of the battles in the movie (which I feel is mostly missing in these big battle sequences in blockbuster films).

Wan knows how to make his movies kinetic - there's just as much energy in the camera movements and editing as there is in the choreography and CGI of the action beats, without going overboard, a la Bay and his ilk. It can STILL come across as too much, in a long, 2.5h movie, but give me that over a busy shot of a million ships that mean nothing any day of the week...

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

So what you telling me is that we need  Lawrence Kasdan to write a star wars film directed Wan.

[reddevil19]

Now, as I don't want to veer into Franchise War territory, I'll move away from any discussion relating to a potential conflict between a SW future movie and AQM2 and simply say...why must SW even aim for December? Yes, Disney claimed that spot with TFA and made great use of it, but we're looking at diminishing returns for the franchise (regardless of any competition), even in that spot, there's nothing tying SW to Christmas as a "holiday" movie per se, and in fact, traditionally, they've been big summer blockbusters.

 

Yes, yes, SOLO, but that was...well, less said about that, the better. A few years break, a concept that appeals to OS markets, epic in scale and execution... very easily could slot back into summer. 

 

ALSO, a final factor... The World Cup in 2022 is in Nov - Dec, due to finish December 18th. So if they were to go with the December slot, they either open on the Friday 16th and kill their weekend (those traditional European markets that love SW WORSHIP football), or open sooner and potentially be even more affected, have potential mediocre WOM mean there's less interest over the holidays, etc... I do think it's a bad release for SW.

[a2k]

8 minutes ago, Bobbybuilderton said:

i love reading back through shit like this

 

" I just don’t see this doing less than $400M domestically. " we really had no idea did we

under 400 ww for Solo has been one of the biggest surprises last 20 years. even of those who were 'in' the club, people were staying above 600 ww and close to 300 dom.

[RockyMountain]

3 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Now, as I don't want to veer into Franchise War territory, I'll move away from any discussion relating to a potential conflict between a SW future movie and AQM2 and simply say...why must SW even aim for December? Yes, Disney claimed that spot with TFA and made great use of it, but we're looking at diminishing returns for the franchise (regardless of any competition), even in that spot, there's nothing tying SW to Christmas as a "holiday" movie per se, and in fact, traditionally, they've been big summer blockbusters.

 

Yes, yes, SOLO, but that was...well, less said about that, the better. A few years break, a concept that appeals to OS markets, epic in scale and execution... very easily could slot back into summer. 

 

ALSO, a final factor... The World Cup in 2022 is in Nov - Dec, due to finish December 18th. So if they were to go with the December slot, they either open on the Friday 16th and kill their weekend (those traditional European markets that love SW WORSHIP football), or open sooner and potentially be even more affected, have potential mediocre WOM mean there's less interest over the holidays, etc... I do think it's a bad release for SW.

It's hard to make a big deal about diminishing returns when all the movies are still getting over a billion.

[MrGlass2]

10 minutes ago, Jabba'sMoofmilker said:

So what you telling me is that we need  Lawrence Kasdan to write a star wars film directed Wan.

After the Aquamen, Wan should get the opportunity to make original movies with a big budget.

[reddevil19]

Just now, RockyMountain said:

It's hard to make a big deal about diminishing returns when all the movies are still getting over a billion.

Really? So, as an investor/stock-holder, you wouldn't care that in the span of 4 years and 3 "main saga" movies, the investment per movie has either stayed the same or increased, and yet the return has literally halved?! 

How can you NOT think that's alarming? Shit, even if TFA is the aberration, and TLJ is more the standard level, you're still looking at about a 20% drop. Meanwhile, other properties in the portfolio are going in the opposite direction, increasing, to a level where their "standard" performance matches and is expected to surpass, the SW one. That is a bad medium to long-term investment, unless rectified.

 

Shit, with that attitude, maybe send your CV in to Lucasfilm. Kathleen Kennedy is sure to love you.

[MrGlass2]

9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

It's hard to make a big deal about diminishing returns when all the movies are still getting over a billion.

Well you can't ignore Solo like that (Disney sure noticed).

[DAJK]

1917’s been doing better PTA’s than Lone Survivor (same calendar too) and it’s in 5x as many theatres. I definitely think it can do 30M+ when it goes wide, if not more.

[TwoMisfits]

One thing if it really is Star Wars vs Aquaman in 2022...

 

Disney is almost certain to get slaughtered if it keeps its current Star Wars DOM terms...if Aquaman has the better terms, it's gonna get way more booked than SW...so to keep that date, Disney would have to accept a lower DOM return %, a lack of biggest screen for 4 weeks, and other things it's gotten used to for DOM SW opens...now after this film's performance, which continues the downward trajectory, Disney may not be able to force those terms on a SW movie...but if they try, well, it will not go well for them...

 

So, either way, they lose, b/c they lose % and return in their biggest market (DOM) if they stay on the date...and they lose the "we got nothing better to do, let's go watch movies" holiday audience if they move...

 

Sucks to lose the ability to dictate the market, but I think they finally have with Star Wars...

[thedast]

1 hour ago, Nova said:

I mean don’t get me wrong, I still think a Star Wars movie can pull in numbers but unless they change their strategy then I’m not sure a billion is gonna happen for future SW movies. It seems like the Mandalorian is being very well received so if they translate that to the big screen they’ll be fine.

 

Ehh, except the Mandalorian is on an American-only streaming service. Once again, shutting out the OS markets they need to get on board. Sure there are ways to see it if you're really dedicated, but the most popular thing about it is a baby version of an already well-known OT character. People keep citing Knights of the Old Republic as the way to go, but... it's a video game. If OS doesn't care about the movies, why would a movie based on a spin off video game increase interest? And forgetting OS markets for a second, someone posted the demographic breakdown of the last few SW movies and it's been losing female and younger audiences. Another sign that SW is basically surviving on nostalgia. They can keep making SW movies, but diminishing returns seems inevitable. Especially when there are other cinematic universes out there with more variety.