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Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

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29 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Wan knows how to make his movies kinetic - there's just as much energy in the camera movements and editing as there is in the choreography and CGI of the action beats, without going overboard, a la Bay and his ilk. It can STILL come across as too much, in a long, 2.5h movie, but give me that over a busy shot of a million ships that mean nothing any day of the week...

He even did a better job than Spielberg (the master of making kinetic movies) did that year with Ready Player One.

 

Also problem with modern day Bay isn't that he goes too overboard but that he also makes his films too serious. Like his movie recent film would have been a good time if he didn't also make it a serious film about Middle Eastern politics at the same time. Hot take but I love the third Transformers movie just because of how overboard he goes there (and the movie is mostly not that serious either, hell the first half is a proper comedy).

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11 minutes ago, DAJK said:

1917’s been doing better PTA’s than Lone Survivor (same calendar too) and it’s in 5x as many theatres. I definitely think it can do 30M+ when it goes wide, if not more.

A comment about Weekday numbers and how they will pertain to near-term box office? In a weekday thread? DAJK, what is this madness?

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10 minutes ago, thedast said:

Ehh, except the Mandalorian is on an American-only streaming service. Once again, shutting out the OS markets they need to get on board. Sure there are ways to see it if you're really dedicated, but the most popular thing about it is a baby version of an already well-known OT character. People keep citing Knights of the Old Republic as the way to go, but... it's a video game. If OS doesn't care about the movies, why would a movie based on a spin off video game increase interest? And forgetting OS markets for a second, someone posted the demographic breakdown of the last few SW movies and it's been losing female and younger audiences. Another sign that SW is basically surviving on nostalgia. They can keep making SW movies, but diminishing returns seems inevitable. Especially when there are other cinematic universes out there with more variety. 

I had completely forgotten The Mandalorian was on American Streaming only as I forgot Disney plus wasn't pushed to international markets. Its a shame cause The Mandalorian is some really great stuff especially the last episode. I have no idea if international audiences will like it or not but its a step in the right direction creatively imo 

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I wonder when the MCU is going to open up a film during the Christmas season. Obviously not anytime soon but I would be interested to see the types of legs it would have. Like I wonder if an MCU film (not named the Avengers) would have a large opening ($150M+) and then get like a 3.3x multiplier off of that because of the holidays. 

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37 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Really? So, as an investor/stock-holder, you wouldn't care that in the span of 4 years and 3 "main saga" movies, the investment per movie has either stayed the same or increased, and yet the return has literally halved?! 

How can you NOT think that's alarming? Shit, even if TFA is the aberration, and TLJ is more the standard level, you're still looking at about a 20% drop. Meanwhile, other properties in the portfolio are going in the opposite direction, increasing, to a level where their "standard" performance matches and is expected to surpass, the SW one. That is a bad medium to long-term investment, unless rectified.

 

Shit, with that attitude, maybe send your CV in to Lucasfilm. Kathleen Kennedy is sure to love you.

My goodness you are talking about four movies that all crossed a barrier that fewer than fifty movies in the history of cinema have done. You are really reaching here to try to imply that something is wrong with Star Wars.

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32 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Really? So, as an investor/stock-holder, you wouldn't care that in the span of 4 years and 3 "main saga" movies, the investment per movie has either stayed the same or increased, and yet the return has literally halved?! 

How can you NOT think that's alarming? Shit, even if TFA is the aberration, and TLJ is more the standard level, you're still looking at about a 20% drop. Meanwhile, other properties in the portfolio are going in the opposite direction, increasing, to a level where their "standard" performance matches and is expected to surpass, the SW one. That is a bad medium to long-term investment, unless rectified.

 

Shit, with that attitude, maybe send your CV in to Lucasfilm. Kathleen Kennedy is sure to love you.

 

The theatrical gross for these movies aren't the only way they are making money, you know?  Would I be disappointed if I were them, of course!  You always want to make as much as possible, but you are acting like the sky is falling.

 

Do you think they have made a profit of $4b across all streams of revenue that their Star Wars movies have generated?  If so, it's not a bad investment.

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With Disney moving to 4 MCU Films in 2022 and beyond (assuming it all goes to plan) and also at least one Pixar and one Disney Animation Film per year there are limited spots to put Star Wars films especially since the brand is going to be in a more rebuilding phase when the new films come out. 

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I’m sure both movies (Aquaman and Star Wars) can do fine if they both keep the same release date but I’d be shocked if WB moved Aquaman after it made over 800m overseas and nearly 300m in China on that same holiday release date. 

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4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The theatrical gross for these movies aren't the only way they are making money, you know?  Would I be disappointed if I were them, of course!  You always want to make as much as possible, but you are acting like the sky is falling.

 

Do you think they have made a profit of $4b across all streams of revenue that their Star Wars movies have generated?  If so, it's not a bad investment.

What other sources of revenue have the Disney movies generated besides box office? Blu Ray sales? Because it certainly isn't merchandising.

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Even if the number goes up a little from JJ's initial reading, the weekend is still pretty much sunk for TROS. Saturday will be pretty much flat from Friday and then we'll see at least a 25% decrease on Sunday.

 

We'll see though. 

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9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

My goodness you are talking about four movies that all crossed a barrier that fewer than fifty movies in the history of cinema have done. You are really reaching here to try to imply that something is wrong with Star Wars.

 

His perspective is perfectly logical. Disney/stakeholders surely can't be happy with a movie underperforming and a brand diminishing.

From a non-stakeholder POV, yes, great achievemens, but from the POV of someone who's been promised great returns to their investment, it doesn't matter how many movies achieved the same or not.

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8 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The theatrical gross for these movies aren't the only way they are making money, you know?  Would I be disappointed if I were them, of course!  You always want to make as much as possible, but you are acting like the sky is falling.

 

Do you think they have made a profit of $4b across all streams of revenue that their Star Wars movies have generated?  If so, it's not a bad investment.

I think it was a great investment, badly handled so far on the theatrical side (which has an influence on the non-theatrical revenue streams as well).

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10 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The theatrical gross for these movies aren't the only way they are making money, you know?  Would I be disappointed if I were them, of course!  You always want to make as much as possible, but you are acting like the sky is falling.

 

Do you think they have made a profit of $4b across all streams of revenue that their Star Wars movies have generated?  If so, it's not a bad investment.

You'd have a point if Star Wars wasn't seeing drops at an equally alarming rate with ancillaries and merchandising.

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9 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

The theatrical gross for these movies aren't the only way they are making money, you know?  Would I be disappointed if I were them, of course!  You always want to make as much as possible, but you are acting like the sky is falling.

 

Do you think they have made a profit of $4b across all streams of revenue that their Star Wars movies have generated?  If so, it's not a bad investment.

All the big franchises make money outside of theatrical revenue. But if the movies keep costing 400-500 million and the revenue drops to 800-900 million, they become an exercise in futility, meant JUST to keep interest alive in merchandising. But since we're on the subject - their merchandising for this new trilogy has done fairly poorly, and falling theatrical revenue mirrors a reduced interest from the public, which will impact on ancillaries as well, even if not immediately.

 

As you said, you would be disappointed. This is in response to a flippant "oh, they're still making a billion" comment, which ignores the reality that these are high investments, which have seen drastic falls in return. It's not yet tragic, but a course correction is needed. That correction entails not going into the next movies with an attitude of "it's SW, it'll be fine", and drop whatever movie, on whichever date, regardless of competition, not working towards building the brand in expanding markets and so on.

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6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

I know the merch isn't as strong as it used to be, but how bad can it be?

Pretty bad. The lack of SW merch at most major retailers this year has been alarming compared to the past 3 years. Marvel, WWE, DC, Jurassic Park, and others have decent sized sections whereas SW sections have been shrinking to almost nothing. The new movie caused absolutely no spike in sections at stores. That was the first thing that told me "hmmm....Disney must know something we don't but aren't willing to say". I thought maybe it was just near me but that is what I have been hearing from people all over. When Frozen 2 had separate sections at stores for the movie back in October and in early December you could hardly find TROS things, something was going on.

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