Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[narniadis]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Those who don't like TROS are usually displaying indifference...

Those who didn't like TLJ usually displayed anger...

 

Indifferent people don't tend to drive folks away...angry folks do...

 

See BvS vs JL...1.99x vs 2.46x - neither had a great multiplier, but indifference did win the day...well, that, and the lower open...so it does set up the same as TLJ vs TROS (anger vs indifference...and lower open:)...

This is accurate  hence why the angry ROS people are so verbal 😂 but yes, anger at first drives away but indifference just refrains from bringing extras.

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

From early looks of it $20-21mn. Lets see how it goes.

 

F2 seems like 4.5

F2 is looking at a very nice Christmas Day then, and one heck of a 5 day weekend!
The first Frozen (which coincidentally had the same calendar configuration) had this as it's Christmas week;

Tuesday 24th - 4.8m

Wednesday 25th - 6.4m (+ 33%)

Thursday 26th - 9.1m (+43%)

Friday 27th - 10.2m (+12%)

Saturday 28th - 10m (-2%)

Sunday 29th - 8.4m (-16%)

 

Discount Tuesday probably accounts for some increase, so Wednesday might have a slightly softer increase, but still looks to be a killer 5 day if it follows these increased even remotely. Perhaps something like this;

 

24th - 4.5m

25th - 5.6m (+24% to account for discount Tuesday)

26th - 8.0m (+43%)

27th - 9.0m (+13%)

28th - 8.7m (-3%)

29th - 7.3m (-16%)

 

That would be a 5 day of 38.6 million. That would be insanity. 
Granted, that's an optimistic prediction, and no one knows how Spies will affect it. Still, anything over 30m 5-day is uber impressive considering how much it has already made thus far!

 

[narniadis]

@VanillaSkies there is no Discount Tuesdays the next 2 weeks. The major chains have all put them off till after the 1st. 

 

Frozen will definitely drop today and not hold flat.

Edited December 24, 2019 by narniadis

[Eric Duncan]

@VanillaSkies Discount Tuesday gets pulled during the last couple weeks of December at the big chains, so that's not really gonna impact things here.

[John Marston]

TLJ definitely was not that well received by audiences but I’m not seeing any improvement with TROS. Guessing most audiences liked TFA and think the sequels were average to poor 

[kswiston]

15 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Those who don't like TROS are usually displaying indifference...

Those who didn't like TLJ usually displayed anger...

 

Indifferent people don't tend to drive folks away...angry folks do...

 

See BvS vs JL...1.99x vs 2.46x - neither had a great multiplier, but indifference did win the day...well, that, and the lower open...so it does set up the same as TLJ vs TROS (anger vs indifference...and lower open:)...

 

Some of the legs difference between BvS and JL is due to the fact that BvS opened easter weekend and JL opened the week before Thanksgiving. Some of it was the audience not caring to rush out to see it.

 

By the logic above the Mockingjay films had a better audience reception than The Hunger Games or Catching Fire. 

[LonePirate]

Count me in the group with those who say TLJ is a better film than TROS. Anecdotally from what I can see, TROS has better reception from casual fans and a solid segment of the hardcore fans. Of course some of the hardcore fans still angry about TLJ won’t give TROS a fair shake. Throw all of this together along with the cold critical reception to TROS and I have no idea where the film will land. It should pass TLK for #2 of 2019. Where it ends up after that is anybody’s guess. 

[VanillaSkies]

7 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

@VanillaSkies Discount Tuesday gets pulled during the last couple weeks of December at the big chains, so that's not really gonna impact things here.

Here in Canada the major chains like Cineplex have not pulled Discount Tuesday. 

I'm sure there are some places in the US that have followed suit. So while there might be a blunted impact, I don't think we can negate it completely. 

[Legion Again]

Can’t imagine Frozen flat. Only explanation for the difference Vs previous Eves if that does happen would be people who got in the habit of going on Tuesdays and just sort of keep it up despite the lack of a discount.    
 

Since I expect sub 4 for F2, also expecting sub 20 for TROS. Cmon America, surprise me with your walkups 😛 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[VanillaSkies]

9 minutes ago, narniadis said:

@VanillaSkies there is no Discount Tuesdays the next 2 weeks. The major chains have all put them off till after the 1st. 

 

Frozen will definitely drop today and not hold flat.

That exactly what my numbers represent, based directly on Charlie's numbers. 

4.5m is a decrease. I'm not sure what your trying to say here.

My point was the Tuesday number in 2019 will be slightly inflated over 2013 due to discount Tuesdays now, hence there might be a smaller Wednesday increase comparatively. As I've mentioned, the bug chains in Canada are still having discount Tuesday, and I'm sure there are still some theatres in the US that have followed suit. So while it might be a smaller than usual impact, it's still there. 

 

Here is the proof;

 

2013 Frozen 

 

Monday 23rd - 7.2 million

Tuesday 24th - 4.8 million (-34%)

If Charlie's numbers are even close, then we are looking at a 5-10% decrease Monday - Tuesday from Frozen 2, way softer than the comparative 34% drop for Frozen, which had the exact same calendar configuration. Obviously there is some Tuesday inflation happening here. 

[VanillaSkies]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Can’t imagine Frozen flat. Only explanation for the difference Vs previous Eves if that does happen would be people who got in the habit of going on Tuesdays and just sort of keep it up despite the lack of a discount.    
 

Since I expect sub 4 for F2, also expecting sub 20 for TROS. Cmon America, surprise me with your walkups 😛 

 

I do recall someone saying there is another $5 off T-mobile deal today.
Perhaps that is helping to drive some afternoon sales?

EDIT - Curiously, this is the first year I can remember when theatres around here are not closing early. There are 10pm and 11pm shows for everything. 

I've noticed AMC is following suit in large cities like NY. Perhaps this is also a factor in somewhat stronger than usual Christmas Eve numbers?

Edited December 24, 2019 by VanillaSkies

[TwoMisfits]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

 

I do recall someone saying there is another $5 off T-mobile deal today.
Perhaps that is helping to drive some afternoon sales?

That someone was me - and yes, it is active and getting used early and often (if the slickdeals swaps are any indication:)...

Edited December 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

2 hours ago, excel1 said:

The Last Jedi opening where it opened (2 weeks before xmas) may have made its legs look worse than the WOM was. ROS's opening seems to have been severely deflated due to opening so close to the holiday.

 

Watch ROS match Jedi's total 

id laugh if it beat TLJ by like 500K or 1 Mil, so that we can still use the argument that the third film increases from the second.

[John Marston]

1 hour ago, excel1 said:

Def seems its opening weekend was severely deflated due to opening so close to the holiday. we'll see where it finishes. 

 

either way last Jedi rocks 

I’d say it would need more than just good holiday legs to match TLJ.

[Menor the Destroyer]

43 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Those who don't like TROS are usually displaying indifference...

Those who didn't like TLJ usually displayed anger...

 

Indifferent people don't tend to drive folks away...angry folks do...

 

See BvS vs JL...1.99x vs 2.46x - neither had a great multiplier, but indifference did win the day...well, that, and the lower open...so it does set up the same as TLJ vs TROS (anger vs indifference...and lower open:)...

JL had better audience metrics than BvS. Plus many of those who liked TLJ loved it, that group seems anecdotally to be much smaller for TROS. 

[baumer]

1 hour ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Of course TROS will have a better multiplier. Menor literally just said that. There will be no way to tell how much is reception vs calendar, but I tend to agree with them that reception is actually a bit worse than TLJ, and I think your personal dislike for that movie may be clouding your judgement. 

 

And my dislike for the movie is not clouding my judgment.  You can't always go by what internet metrics say.  Sometimes just talking to real people, like we used to do before the internet became our god, is the way to go.  And when I do that common sense tells me that TLJ was massively disliked.  TROS is a mess but it's a hell of a lot more fun than TLJ.

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

That exactly what my numbers represent, based directly on Charlie's numbers. 

4.5m is a decrease. I'm not sure what your trying to say here.

My point was the Tuesday number in 2019 will be slightly inflated over 2013 due to discount Tuesdays now, hence there might be a smaller Wednesday increase comparatively. As I've mentioned, the bug chains in Canada are still having discount Tuesday, and I'm sure there are still some theatres in the US that have followed suit. So while it might be a smaller than usual impact, it's still there. 

 

Here is the proof;

 

2013 Frozen 

 

Monday 23rd - 7.2 million

Tuesday 24th - 4.8 million (-34%)

If Charlie's numbers are even close, then we are looking at a 5-10% decrease Monday - Tuesday from Frozen 2, way softer than the comparative 34% drop for Frozen, which had the exact same calendar configuration. Obviously there is some Tuesday inflation happening here. 

4.5 is barely a decrease in the grand sceme Frozen will be fortunate to avoid a 20% drop which would definitely bring it under the 4m mark. 

As for discount Tuesday, while Canada doesnt ever change it (so pattern is not changing) the major chains (AMC, Cinemark and Regal) which represent more than 80% of the total are not. That is a significant change in the US which coupled with most theaters closing early (even given your notice of oddly open ones) means a big drop. 

Jedi Jat yesterday made it clear that he wasnt sure as to how well his tracking would do today since he hasnt done Christmas Eve before. 

 

I would love to see Frozen with a 4.5m and if the data is going to be written let it be done! But statistically there is nothing there to advocate for your 4.5 let alone over 4m. 

[Jabba'sMoofmilker]

1 hour ago, John Marston said:

I’d say it would need more than just good holiday legs to match TLJ.

I dont see this matching TLJ at all

if this film just opened to 190 imo it would have had a shot.

[keysersoze123]

One thing today is some plexes close early so evening numbers will be worse than yesterday. So no way Frozen would stay flat today. I posted SW9 PS yesterday at tracking thread. It was down just 15% but walk in sales will be lower. Let us see where it ends up.

[baumer]

24 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Here in Canada the major chains like Cineplex have not pulled Discount Tuesday. 

I'm sure there are some places in the US that have followed suit. So while there might be a blunted impact, I don't think we can negate it completely. 

 

Thank you.  Was going to post the same thing.