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Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

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2 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

All the big franchises make money outside of theatrical revenue. But if the movies keep costing 400-500 million and the revenue drops to 800-900 million, they become an exercise in futility, meant JUST to keep interest alive in merchandising. But since we're on the subject - their merchandising for this new trilogy has done fairly poorly, and falling theatrical revenue mirrors a reduced interest from the public, which will impact on ancillaries as well, even if not immediately.

 

As you said, you would be disappointed. This is in response to a flippant "oh, they're still making a billion" comment, which ignores the reality that these are high investments, which have seen drastic falls in return. It's not yet tragic, but a course correction is needed. That correction entails not going into the next movies with an attitude of "it's SW, it'll be fine", and drop whatever movie, on whichever date, regardless of competition, not working towards building the brand in expanding markets and so on.

 

I am 100% in agreement that they need to scale back.  I mentioned in another thread that you could totally make a movie set in the Star Wars universe that's budgeted like John Wick 3, smaller in scope and make plenty of money.  They obviously don't need to spend 400-500m per movie.  Especially when you are releasing them only two years apart.  That's just not enough time to get hyped up and build the anticipation either.  

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2 minutes ago, jedijake said:

Pretty bad. The lack of SW merch at most major retailers this year has been alarming compared to the past 3 years. Marvel, WWE, DC, Jurassic Park, and others have decent sized sections whereas SW sections have been shrinking to almost nothing. The new movie caused absolutely no spike in sections at stores. That was the first thing that told me "hmmm....Disney must know something we don't but aren't willing to say". I thought maybe it was just near me but that is what I have been hearing from people all over. When Frozen 2 had separate sections at stores for the movie back in October and in early December you could hardly find TROS things, something was going on.

Well, yes.  This is the same group that didn't make toys for a certain something they didn't want to spoil and they lost millions from that blunder. They don't always make the best decisions, lol. 

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39 minutes ago, Nova said:

I wonder when the MCU is going to open up a film during the Christmas season. Obviously not anytime soon but I would be interested to see the types of legs it would have. Like I wonder if an MCU film (not named the Avengers) would have a large opening ($150M+) and then get like a 3.3x multiplier off of that because of the holidays. 

With MCU having 4 movies a year and SW possible holding back, it may be soon

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1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, yes.  This is the same group that didn't make toys for a certain something they didn't want to spoil and they lost millions from that blunder. They don't always make the best decisions, lol. 

Imagine how many Baby Yoda’s would have made it under Christmas trees :jedi:

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I think the indication is that instead of trying to bank on merchandise, Disney seemed to scale back production in order to avoid loss. Maybe they were seeing how things would pan out and then increase production if need be (like they did for the first Frozen movie). Instead-they are rushing to make baby yoda dolls lol.

 

Truth is that no matter how TROS ends up doing, it's more in lines with POTC and Hunger Games than Potter, LOTR, or Marvel with respect to where it's ending up. And unlike certain franchises (POTC and Transformers for example) the overseas numbers aren't there to support it if it indeed does sink too far down.

 

Btw, any updates on today's numbers? I still find it almost impossible to believe in $25 million. 

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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:

No one outside of Star Wars fans knows what the Knights of the Old Republic is. And it's gonna be too dark for a Christmas movie either way and will have mediocre WoM outside of the fanbase.

I mean that’s not true it’s one of the best selling games of all time and the best reviewed with everyone saying its an amazing story.  But beyond that it’s all on marketing I see no reason why it can’t do well

Edited by boomboom234
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2 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I am 100% in agreement that they need to scale back.  I mentioned in another thread that you could totally make a movie set in the Star Wars universe that's budgeted like John Wick 3, smaller in scope and make plenty of money.  They obviously don't need to spend 400-500m per movie.  Especially when you are releasing them only two years apart.  That's just not enough time to get hyped up and build the anticipation either.  

Agreed. There are numerous examples of small budget movies looking great and doing well. 

I have also mentioned before that I don't envy Disney and Lucas film, as their next steps are crucial and deciding where to go won't be easy. 

 

Going smaller scale might sound logical, but they might be scared that, while limiting cost, it also limits its potential in expanding markets that don't like/know the SW brand and like spectacle that a smaller budget they feel will not deliver... 

 

I'm critical of TROS, both as a movie and its performance, but there's still something about SW that makes me want to watch more, so I am definitely hoping they come up with something good. 

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5 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

I mean that’s not true it’s one of the best selling games of all time and the best reviewed with everyone saying its an amazing story. 

Yeah, it sold a few million copies. Solo sold a few million tickets as well...

There's a very good chance most of the people that bought KOTOR are SW fans in general, and they'd watch the movies. TWhatever new movie is next needs to reach beyond those people. That's the point here...

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28 minutes ago, LaughingEvans said:

 

His perspective is perfectly logical. Disney/stakeholders surely can't be happy with a movie underperforming and a brand diminishing.

From a non-stakeholder POV, yes, great achievemens, but from the POV of someone who's been promised great returns to their investment, it doesn't matter how many movies achieved the same or not.

While that is true however there also is a bit of overreacting going on within this thread. Probably stemmed from people not enjoying the last couple movies. People who invest their money aren't going to be overreacting like people on message boards tend to do.

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9 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

While that is true however there also is a bit of overreacting going on within this thread. Probably stemmed from people not enjoying the last couple movies. People who invest their money aren't going to be overreacting like people on message boards tend to do.

Getting back to box office. what's your take on the outlook for this coming weekend?

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If I’m a stakeholder I’m more concerned over what Disney plans to do with Star Wars now. It seems like they don’t have a clear cut plan and that’s what’s most concerning imo which just adds to the decrease in box office from each film and the decrease in merchandise sales. That would be “ok” if Disney had a plan to course correct but it doesn’t seem like they do. That we know of yet of course. 

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23 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Yeah, it sold a few million copies. Solo sold a few million tickets as well...

There's a very good chance most of the people that bought KOTOR are SW fans in general, and they'd watch the movies. TWhatever new movie is next needs to reach beyond those people. That's the point here...

Um but if they did a completely original concept then zero people would have bought it. What's to prevent KOTOR from reaching a broad audience?

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26 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Yeah, it sold a few million copies. Solo sold a few million tickets as well...

There's a very good chance most of the people that bought KOTOR are SW fans in general, and they'd watch the movies. TWhatever new movie is next needs to reach beyond those people. That's the point here...

Yeah that game of thrones only sold a few million copies to fans can’t be a success

 

Or those marvel comics who gives a fuck about Iron Man only sold a few million copies over 30 years to nerds ( same with Thor and Captain America)

 

Or those hunger games sold a few million copies to bunch of kids who gives a fuck can’t be a success.

 

 

Edited by boomboom234

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2 minutes ago, Menor said:

Um but if they did a completely original concept then zero people would have bought it. What's to prevent KOTOR from reaching a broad audience?

One concern I have with KOTOR is that they'd probably adopt a lame path (light side). Even the lame KOTOR paths are pretty cool though.

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20 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Getting back to box office. what's your take on the outlook for this coming weekend?

Probably 75-80m. 

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2 minutes ago, RockyMountain said:

Probably 75-80m. 

That would be absolutely dreadful!!!

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12 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

Yeah that game of thrones only sold a few million copies to fans can’t be a success

 

Or those marvel comics who gives a fuck about Iron Man only sold a few million copies over 30 years to nerds ( same with Thor and Captain America)

 

Or those hunger games sold a few million copies to bunch of kids who gives a fuck can’t be a success.

 

 

You're the one that said it's one of the biggest selling games ever and, as such, more than SW fans know it. It sold under ten million copies. As such, about five times as many people (conservative estimate) watched Solo... The point remains that those who bought KOTOR were already SW fans, which you were disputing. 

 

CAN KOTOR as a movie appeal outside the fanbase? Sure, just like a lot of other options. But you latched on to a comment that no one knows KOTOR unless they're at least casual SW fans and denied that fact. However, the original poster was correct.

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54 minutes ago, boomboom234 said:

I mean that’s not true it’s one of the best selling games of all time and the best reviewed with everyone saying its an amazing story.

Not true:

Quote

As of 2007, Knights of the Old Republic had sold 3.2 million units.

It was a very successful game but even including the sequel and the MMO, it is very far from the best-selling games or franchises. Also it was a fan favorite for a certain generation, but are kids even aware of KOTOR these days?

 

The best part of KOTOR was a fresh setting independent of the movies so the writers could do whatever they wanted. But it was a plus for a video game. I'm not sure that is a great thing for the next big SW movie, the audience might find it confusing or annoying to go back thousands of years before the world they know.

Edited by MrGlass2
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KOTR was not a best selling game, it just became very popular with SW fans and the RPG community. 

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23 minutes ago, Menor said:

Um but if they did a completely original concept then zero people would have bought it. What's to prevent KOTOR from reaching a broad audience?

KOTOR also has the advantage of some built in merchandising since there are 2 great games ready to go which the broader audience might not have played yet. If the movie takes off, that's basically free money from renewed game sales - kind of like what's happening with Witcher right now with the Netflix show boosting game sales. Who knows, we might even get KOTOR 3 made as well.

Edited by AndyChrono
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