Weekday Numbers: Dec 23 - Dec 26, 2019

[narniadis]

And again, the difference between the US and Canada today is not new? Canada doesnt / hasnt suspended discount Tuesdays so the comparison with 2013 is still logical. 

 

@baumer and @VanillaSkies thank you for sharing so the new trackers can understand/ learn. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

And my dislike for the movie is not clouding my judgment.  You can't always go by what internet metrics say.  Sometimes just talking to real people, like we used to do before the internet became our god, is the way to go.  And when I do that common sense tells me that TLJ was massively disliked.  TROS is a mess but it's a hell of a lot more fun than TLJ.

And I talked to real people also and most of them thought it was much worse than TLJ. And these are people who mostly were not even huge fans of TLJ. We could do this all day since everyone has a different experience. Cinemascore and PostTrak are not internet metrics, they're audience exit polls, so looking at those is a much more rigorous (though far from perfect) way to predict WOM. 

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

JL had better audience metrics than BvS. Plus many of those who liked TLJ loved it, that group seems anecdotally to be much smaller for TROS. 

But I keep mentioning Xmas dynamics...unlike any other time of year, most folks are bringing family to the theater...and the one thing they don't want is for a movie to make them more miserable than when they walked in.  They want to walk out happier and drama-free.

 

So, milk-spitting cynical Luke - not gonna deliver that to all 10 people in your extended family group...

Crazy battle after crazy fight after crazy battle with lightsabers, ships, and jedi galore - may not bring love, but isn't gonna have anyone start a screaming match about "why did I waste 3 hours of my life watching Luke spew blue milk"...

 

Holidays are just a different animal...I mean, everyone knows Xmas movies always go sky high...and Disney animated films tend to put on great legs...but there are some other lessons for the biggies, too...

 

I mean, as an example,. Aquaman is a C+ movie that threw plot after plot at a wall and then threw in crazy awesome fights every 5 minutes or so...and how'd that movie do?:).  I went with my family, and I can say they all walked out happy and all graded it higher than me b/c they just loved the pace and thrill:)...and I wasn't gonna drag down the happiness b/c everyone was so happy:)...

Edited December 24, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Ryan Reynolds]

32 minutes ago, John Marston said:

TLJ definitely was not that well received by audiences but I’m not seeing any improvement with TROS. Guessing most audiences liked TFA and think the sequels were average to poor 

Well no one is mad enough to drive the all audience score into the 40s like TLJ. It seems to have enough action to keep general audiences entertained.

[MagnarTheGreat]

Repost for the new thread

 

Edited December 24, 2019 by MagnarTheGreat
version 3

[Lordmandeep]

The issue is TROS action is nothing that great. 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[VanillaSkies]

3 minutes ago, narniadis said:

4.5 is barely a decrease in the grand sceme Frozen will be fortunate to avoid a 20% drop which would definitely bring it under the 4m mark. 

As for discount Tuesday, while Canada doesnt ever change it (so pattern is not changing) the major chains (AMC, Cinemark and Regal) which represent more than 80% of the total are not. That is a significant change in the US which coupled with most theaters closing early (even given your notice of oddly open ones) means a big drop. 

Jedi Jat yesterday made it clear that he wasnt sure as to how well his tracking would do today since he hasnt done Christmas Eve before. 

 

I would love to see Frozen with a 4.5m and if the data is going to be written let it be done! But statistically there is nothing there to advocate for your 4.5 let alone over 4m. 

It's not my number, it's Charlie's. It's not as if I pulled it out of thin air. 

Yes, Charlie has acknowledged that Christmas Eve is going to be harder for him to track, but he is also taking that into account. I'd take his numbers any day of the week over someone's predictions based on no hard numbers. 

Also, as aforementioned, there is a huge T-Mobile deal happening today for it's 80 million subscribers. (see Twomisfits post above). 

That essentially turns this into a discount Tuesday for many people, even if the theatres aren't giving the discount directly. Couple that with some large chains (Cineplex) still giving the discount plus numerous cities (LA, NY, Chicago, etc) having 10pm and 11pm shows (which is pretty different from past years), and it's not hard to see that there is going to be some inflation on Tuesdays number. 

[John Marston]

Two Towers opened on the same weekend in 2002. That might be a good comparison to use 

[Menor the Destroyer]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

But I keep mentioning Xmas dynamics...unlike any other time of year, most folks are bringing family to the theater...and the one thing they don't want is for a movie to make them more miserable than when they walked in.  They want to walk out happier and drama-free.

 

So, milk-spitting cynical Luke - not gonna deliver that to all 10 people in your extended family group...

Crazy battle after crazy fight after crazy battle with lightsabers, ships, and jedi galore - may not bring love, but isn't gonna have anyone start a screaming match about "why did I waste 3 hours of my life watching Luke spew blue milk"...

 

Holidays are just a different animal...I mean, everyone knows Xmas movies always go sky high...and Disney animated films tend to put on great legs...but there are some other lessons for the biggies, too...

 

I mean, as an example,. Aquaman is a C+ movie that threw plot after plot at a wall and then threw in crazy awesome fights every 5 minutes or so...and how'd that movie do?:).  I went with my family, and I can say they all walked out happy and all graded it higher than me b/c they just loved the pace and thrill:)...and I wasn't gonna drag down the happiness b/c everyone was so happy:)...

Idk I don't think TROS fights are anything more crazy and spectacular than some of the fights in TLJ like the Throne Room or hyperspace ram (I know fans were mad but that moment played really well to crowds in my theater). In terms of spectacle Aquaman is way better than either and delivers something people haven't seen before. In any case if TROS is really pleasing crowds better than shouldn't that be reflected in the exit polls?

[Lordmandeep]

The space battle from ROTJ was way more cooler.

 

 

The thing is when you watch it now you are blown away how the hell they did that in 1983.

 

I can imagine in 1983 people were blown away as I cant recall a massive sci-fi battle put to screen before then. 

Edited December 24, 2019 by Lordmandeep

[redfirebird2008]

2 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

Considering that TFA (adjusted) did $200m in TWO days, you can't blame people for being disappointed that the final movie took 4 days, and some inflation, to reach it. 

 

Fair enough. These are still great numbers and I am curious to see how the legs turn out compared to TLJ. 

[VanillaSkies]

Regarding the Christmas Eve late shows, which doing a quick search of AMC in major cities seems pretty widespread in NY, LA, Chicago, Atlanta, Florida, etc. I applaud the decision in theatres acknowledging that there is a large segment of the population that don't celebrate Christmas due to religion and other variables.  Further to that, there are some people who don't have family close or don't celebrate until Christmas Day. I'm sure there are older couples, etc who would love the chance to go to a movie on Christmas Eve as well. I hope that this trend continues in the future. 

[narniadis]

11 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

It's not my number, it's Charlie's. It's not as if I pulled it out of thin air. 

Yes, Charlie has acknowledged that Christmas Eve is going to be harder for him to track, but he is also taking that into account. I'd take his numbers any day of the week over someone's predictions based on no hard numbers. 

Also, as aforementioned, there is a huge T-Mobile deal happening today for it's 80 million subscribers. (see Twomisfits post above). 

That essentially turns this into a discount Tuesday for many people, even if the theatres aren't giving the discount directly. Couple that with some large chains (Cineplex) still giving the discount plus numerous cities (LA, NY, Chicago, etc) having 10pm and 11pm shows (which is pretty different from past years), and it's not hard to see that there is going to be some inflation on Tuesdays number. 

I am out of likes 😂 I know that the number is charlies, but your strong argument for it is why I addressed it as I did. 

I am also aware of the tmobile deal, and as with deals that happen frequently these days, it will impact in a positive way, but also doesnt mean it will all be applied to today. 

All I am saying is that the actual data, even given Charlies spin on it for Christmas Eve, will not support that kind of behavior. A 10% or so better hold than in 2013 still puts it falling 20% from Monday and at or below the 4.0 mark. 

That is the kind of data that we use to make actual predictions, which of course can be wrong. 

Its the strong "go with it since Jedi put it out" that will inevitably cause newer trackers and posters to whine and gripe about bad or disappointing numbers when it doesnt hold - and it wont. 

And if I am wrong (as I am with some things, holiday play being one of the bigger swings that is hard to track) I will admit and rejoice since I WANT the big numbers. Its much more realistic to stick with actual behavioral data than high hopes so early in a day that is usually horrible post the 2-3pm window. 

[ViewerAnon]

16 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Two Towers opened on the same weekend in 2002. That might be a good comparison to use 

TWO TOWERS opened on Wednesday so that’ll skew things.

[narniadis]

7 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

Regarding the Christmas Eve late shows, which doing a quick search of AMC in major cities seems pretty widespread in NY, LA, Chicago, Atlanta, Florida, etc. I applaud the decision in theatres acknowledging that there is a large segment of the population that don't celebrate Christmas due to religion and other variables.  Further to that, there are some people who don't have family close or don't celebrate until Christmas Day. I'm sure there are older couples, etc who would love the chance to go to a movie on Christmas Eve as well. I hope that this trend continues in the future. 

This is the kind of change that makes me wish we had actual data for what other years have done in this regard (say last 3-4 years). #liveandlearn #newdataisgood 

[wildphantom]

58 minutes ago, kswiston said:

 

Some of the legs difference between BvS and JL is due to the fact that BvS opened easter weekend and JL opened the week before Thanksgiving. Some of it was the audience not caring to rush out to see it.

 

By the logic above the Mockingjay films had a better audience reception than The Hunger Games or Catching Fire. 

yeah, people were hyped out of their minds for BvS - hence it’s massive opening, before WOM kicked in. JL - nowhere near the anticipation, so better legs as people checked it out over a couple of weeks. 

[TwoMisfits]

In my area, the mall theaters are going late (to normal 11pm last showings), but all the small-midsize theaters are ending by 9pm showings...and many by 7-8pm showings...so, we may have a change at the largest theaters in a metro, but there will probably still be an enormous amount of theaters dropping at least the last showing per screen for each movie today...

[sfran43]

 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, wildphantom said:

yeah, people were hyped out of their minds for BvS - hence it’s massive opening, before WOM kicked in. JL - nowhere near the anticipation, so better legs as people checked it out over a couple of weeks. 

Are you sure you didn't just describe the Star Wars sequel trilogy?:)...

[sfran43]