WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[Eric Atreides]

September 18

 

The King’s Man: I was down on it last year, and I’m even more down on it this year. Simply put, who is this targeted movie to? The Golden Circle already put a bad taste in some people’s mouths, but this movie looks like it’s sucking away the wild, idiosyncratic tone that defines the series. This doesn’t even have Egerton and Firth, and nobody cares about Kingsman lore, so you’re already alienating the fanbase. I see little reason for newcomers to get invested, so you're losing potential new audiences too. And moving the movie to September after two whole trailers comes out that targeted for a February release...yeah, that’s basically Disney-Fox wanting it to die. Shoulda just gone with a Golden Circle follow-up. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

The Mitchells vs. The Machines: After Sony redeemed itself with Into the Spider-Verse, we have another Lord/Miller produced animated feature. Hotel Transylvania aside, September animations haven’t really seen major box office success lately, and just reading the premise, I don’t really see the same thing here. I'm sure once we actually have footage I'll change my tune, but for now,  I'm gonna say this will be on par with Smallfoot. 25/85 (3.4x)

 

Without Remorse: A Tom Clancy adaptation starring Michael B. Jordan sounds good on paper. Sicario 2 wasn’t that great, but I think this could do well if the marketing delivers, especially since MBJ is growing to be a bigger name every year. Might as well be a touch more optimistic on this one. 30/95 (3.17x)

[Eric Atreides]

September 25

 

Last Night in Soho: Edgar Wright finally hit the mainstream with Baby Driver, and is bringing Anya Taylor-Joy my Queen. Can he recreate the same success again? Probably. I’m sure Focus will put “from the director of Baby Driver” in all the marketing, and being a horror movie will help it play well through October. It won’t be as “fun” as BD was, but it’ll get a good-sized audience, and on the upper end of Focus’ releases. 22/85 (3.86x)

 

The Many Saints of Newark: Downton Abbey saw great success last year, and I think it’ll replicate the same success if not better. At this point, there’s probably a good amount of nostalgia for Sopranos, and while obviously the lack of the original cast will diminish interest, I think WB will play their cards right and deliver something that can excite that fanbase. 35/105 (3x)

 

Praise This: Even with Will Packer as a producer, the whole thing sounds pretty generic, and the director doesn’t give me all that much confidence. So...8/24 (3x)

[Avatree]

I get that Edgar wright is amazing and all, but when was the last time a horror film finished with almost 4x its OW?

[cdsacken]

On 12/28/2019 at 7:42 AM, misafeco said:

There is no way it goes that low. Cinderella (200M) is the floor. I mean, WTF, 150 is almost Dumbo DOM territory. Disney might consider stopping the production of their upcoming remakes, because if one of the most popular 90s animated classic is rejected by audiences, what can the next couple of features hope for

Worse than 1B Pikachu predictions. Floor is 200. More likely 400 than 200

[cdsacken]

On 12/29/2019 at 7:57 AM, Arendelle Legion said:

Finally a controversial take 

Good club would be EG domestic OW higher than total domestic. Should be close either way 

[WrathOfHan]

Alright, time to catch up on two ho hum months.

[WrathOfHan]

August 7

 

Infinite: This sounds like a movie that would have released ten years ago. Fuqua and Wahlberg sounds like a good combo, but this idea just feels really dated. Additionally, Tenet will take a lot of this film’s prime demo. Maybe it’ll be ok, but I’m not counting on it. 15/45 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

August 14

 

Escape Room 2: Escape Room reminds me a lot of 47 Meters Down. Both are horror films that overperformed compared to their expectations then quickly faded from public consciousness. 47 Meters Down Uncaged lost about half of the first’s gross, and while Escape Room 2 has the benefit of Sony vs Entertainment Studios, I suspect it’ll drop a bit from the first . . . Hold up, it’s releasing against a James Wan horror film? Oh, it’s fucked. 10/25 (2.5x)

 

Malignant: And here is that James Wan goodness. After we’ve gotten like 4 new Conjuring spinoffs that were all trash, I’m glad Wan finally has a new horror film that will be authentic to his style. Being the first horror film worth a damn since Candyman (The Purge isn’t worth it!) will help it too. I’m hype! 35/105 (3x)

 

Nobody: This has an interesting cast with two actors I wouldn’t associate with the break-in thriller. I’m interested to see what this turns out to be, but without much to go off of, this prediction is a stab in the dark. 15/45 (3x)

 

The One and Only Ivan: I feel like this movie has been talked about for ages. Given this is an August Disney release coming out only three weeks after Jungle Cruise, I don’t think this will be high on their priority list. We’ll see. 20/60 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

August 21

 

The Empty Man: Wow, this sounds generic as hell. We’re actually hitting a point of horror oversaturation this month, and this will be the lowest grosser of the bunch imo. I mean shit, it’s been finished since January 2018 and is rereleasing nearly 3 years later. That says everything right there! 4/10 (2.5x)

 

Bill and Ted Face the Music: Nostalgia grabs from the 80s tend to be hit or miss, but a third Bill and Ted has been hyped up for so long now. Keanu Reeves is on a roll at the moment, and being the first major comedy in a month will help it too. I’m not going overboard with my prediction because B&T is a mid-size 80s property, but it’ll get close to 100M. 25/80 (3.2x)

 

Let Him Go: This also sounds very generic! At least it isn’t horror. 5/15 (3x)

[WrathOfHan]

August 28

 

Spell: A new horror film from the director of House at the End of the Street? Forget what I said about The Empty Man being the lowest grossing genre release this month. 3/4/6 (2x from 3 day/1.5x from 4 day)

[WrathOfHan]

September 4

 

Monster Hunter: Haha, this isn’t coming out. Nice try Sony . . . Jesus Christ, I forgot they released the trailer last June. Well, Paul W.S. Anderson has his audience. Given this is actually something by him that isn’t a Resident Evil film, its gross will be boosted, but I am not convinced it will be good of course. After having massive early September openings the past few years, it’ll be weird going back to small ones. 20/50 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

September 11

 

The Conjuring 3: The Devil Made Me Do It: Once The Curse of La Llorona released and I found out the hack who directed that is making the next mainline Conjuring film, I knew immediately this would be fucked. La Llorona is by far the worst film in this franchise as it abuses the most painful way to create jumpscares and in turn makes itself laughable. Maybe the director has gained experience and is ready for something better, but I highly doubt that. On the bright side, La Llorona and Annabelle 3 proved that The Conjuring franchise is in a really consistent spot at the box office right now. As the first mainline film in over 4 years, that will give it an added boost. I don’t know if it will hit 100M, but it will be around that mark. 40/95 (2.38x)

[WrathOfHan]

September 18

 

The King’s Man: If Disney delays something 3 months away from release with several trailers almost a full year, something is very wrong with it. The Golden Circle already experienced a decent sized drop from the first domestically, and I highly doubt this prequel will rectify the series, especially with that horrendous delay. 20/50 (2.5x)

 

The Mitchells vs The Machines: The title alone sounds like a mid-00s family film. Fortunately, the crew behind the scenes has done pretty good work, and being produced by Lord and Miller is a good sign. Being the first animated film since Minions should help this out a lot. 25/75 (3x)

 

Without Remorse: Just Mercy, Without Remorse… Michael B Jordan is really out here picking projects with heroic titles. It’s been a while since a Tom Clancy adaptation has hit the big screen, and considering this is written by Taylor Sheridan, it’s already in very good hands. Paramount is probably going to put a lot of effort into marketing this, and I think it could be a surprise hit of the fall. 30/100 (3.33x)

[WrathOfHan]

September 25

 

The Many Saints of Newark: This might be my most anticipated film of the year. I can’t wait to revisit the Sopranos universe, and judging by the show’s resurgence in popularity, I am not alone. It’s been a while since we’ve had a gangster film at the box office, and with the Sopranos name attached to this, it could be a very big hit. The good thing about this is that it should be accessible to new viewers too. I have high hopes for this one. 35/140 (4x)

 

Praise This: It’s hard to predict this without a cast. It sounds generic, so I’ll assume lower numbers. 15/35 (2.33x)

[JB33]

Look at all these single release weekends. Geez....

[DAJK]

imo switch grosses for King's Man and Without Remorse

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

18 hours ago, Avatree said:

I get that Edgar wright is amazing and all, but when was the last time a horror film finished with almost 4x its OW?

2017: Get Out did x6ish. Quiet Place wasn't far off x4 . Hereditary did well over x3.

 

2018: Escape Room did 3x last year.

[Eric Atreides]

October 2

 

BIOS:  I dig the plot for this. I’m a total sucker for these last man on Earth concepts. The only real issue I have is the director, whose last movie was Repo Man back in 2010. Then again, he did direct the one Game of Thrones episode nerds creamed over, so I guess maybe he just needs good material? Regardless, I think the concept is interesting enough that it could grab people’s attention, and having Tom Hanks as the lead certainly doesn’t hurt. 25/80 (3.2x)

 

The Trial of the Chicago 7: As always, it’s hard to judge movies that will open in limited first and decipher their wide opening. But I have hopes for this one. Molly’s Game was solid, and there’s a great cast and story here that will make people invested. Pretty much all of this movie’s chances rest on the Oscar buzz, but let’s just be optimistic on this one. 25/105 (4.2x)

 

Venom 2: KNOCK KNOCK LET THE DEVIL IN. As much as Venom took us by surprise, both in opening and legs, it didn’t have that great of legs. And while the Hardy and Harrelson ham will still attract people, I think others had their fill already with the first. But it’s still going to be a hit, and should help set up Venom 3, when Tom Holland puts it above 300M. 70/170 (2.43x)

[Eric Atreides]

October 9

 

Death on the Nile: Orient Express had a decent opening, but great legs through the November and December holidays, becoming a huge hit for Kenneth Branagh. The sequel though...I have concerns. Not only does its October release date mean it gets zero boost from the holidays, with a couple exceptions, the cast just isn’t really as fun or as buzzy, which was the big reason why people wanted to see the last movie. And I’d also argue that the majority of people who saw Orient Express liked it fine enough, but aren’t really jazzed for a follow-up. So there will be a drop in store, but probably still enough to make a good profit. 20/68 (3.4x)

 

Fatale: Noticed the director for this also did Traffik, The Intruder, and Black and Blue, so I guess I know what to expect quality-wise. And I guess Black and Blue numbers sound about right for a no1curr surrounded by so many potentially buzzy projects. 7/17 (2.43x)

 

Respect: Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin is flawless casting. Just putting that out there. MGM is already starting their marketing campaign early with this one, and pushing this into awards season shows a lot of confidence here. Aretha Franklin’s also iconic in her own right, which only helps the movie’s chances. Obviously doing 75M or whatever would be great, but I’m gonna be optimistic and say this movie has something special up its sleeve. 25/115 (4.6x)

 

The Witches: Burton’s Charlie and the Chocolate Factory aside, Roald Dahl adaptations have all gone down the same route. Mediocre or downright flop at the box office, gains a cult following years later. Considering this is a Zemeckis film, that sounds about right here. 15/50 (3.33x)

[Jonwo]

I'm not sure on The Many Saints of Newark, I'm sure it's good but I wonder if it'd been better to do this as a HBO/HBO Max original film or limited series. Hopefully I'm proven wrong.