WrathOfHan and Eric's CONTROVERSIAL Predictions of 2020

[WeneedtotalkaboutKevin]

5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

June 5

 

Wonder Woman 1984: I AM PREDICTING AN INCREASE FOR THIS; PUT YOUR PITCHFORKS DOWN. With that out of the way, I must say WW1984 looks like a good improvement over the first film. Bringing back Steve Trevor is dumb (as much as I love Chris Pine), but Kristen Wiig as a villain? Yaaaaaaaas. I’m not going crazy with my prediction here and expect it to stay pretty close to the first’s total. It reminds me a lot of Frozen II where significant increases from the first were expected (25%+) because it was a surprise WOM hit when it’s only increasing about 12-15%. That sounds about right here. 140/450 (3.21x)

Hanny Boy, no matter how controversial your box office predictions are or how much I disagree with them, you are still MY G. Heck, you are everyone's G on BOT. Just keep being yourself ! Cheers !

[TwoMisfits]

On 12/29/2019 at 10:53 AM, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I just don’t get the high Trolls Numbers.

I don't either...it's not breaking 3 digits DOM for its run...

[Eric Atreides]

July 3

 

Free Guy: I’m sure the trailer has its fans, but I’m not sure if it was that effective in selling people on the movie. It sold the basic premise, but the plot is kind of hard to pin down, and I think that’s a detriment to an original movie like this. And with all the competition surrounding it, I’m hesitant on it being a stand out. Maybe Disney/Fox will do better in getting the geek crowd interested, but I have my doubts. But at the very least, it should still play well to Reynolds’ fanbase. 30/85 (2.83x)

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru: The Secret Life of Pets was liked by critics and audiences, albeit one can argue many were just indifferent, and its sequel still dropped more than half from its predecessor. Meanwhile, Minions was strongly disliked by many, while Despicable Me 3 had pretty “meh” reception too. I guess July is empty enough, especially stuff for kids, that it won’t do that bad. But I feel like at this point, a lot of people’s interest and excitement for the Minions have died down due to the last couple movies just not really landing, and I think people are getting tired of them.

 

The common consensus with people on BOT is about 200M, but I’m gonna go lower. Way lower. Hey, it is the controversial predictions thread. Get ready for an epic drop this summer, because this movie’s going to go low. Yes, even below Pets 2. 40/135 (3.37x)

[Eric Atreides]

July 10

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife: I know a lot of people are going nuts for the teaser, but....I don't know. Say what you will about the 2016 reboot, but I think it’s fair to say the toxic reactions toward that film have really damaged the Ghostbusters brand to the GA that even with the old gang back, I doubt even nostalgia will help it all that much. Still, Ghostbusters is a recognizable enough name, and buzz from the trailer so far is good enough that it should at least cross the century mark, though probably under the 2016 film. So hey, consolation prize for fans of that movie. 45/120 (2.67x)

 

The Purge 5: The last movie went down a touch, but nothing drastic. The fanbase still likes checking these movies out, and I trust Jason Blum to add a new twist here that will make people excited for this one too. Still down from the last movie, but good enough that we should still get at least one more movie. 28/65 (2.32x)

[Lordmandeep]

Jesus christ, this summer is going to a wash box office wise. 

[Eric Atreides]

July 17

 

Bob’s Burgers: Of all the Fox shows you could make into a movie, why Bob’s Burgers? It’s not super obscure, and it has grown its audience thanks to TBS and Adult Swim reruns. But it’s more of a cult hit than anything else, and I’d argue there’s a bit of a crossover audience with Tenet. Teen Titans Go opened to about 10M, and that seems about right for this movie too, although I doubt legs will be as strong. 10/25 (2.5x)

 

Tenet: Papa Nolan has returned to save cinema! So far, the marketing has done a great job in selling the film without even detailing the plot or characters. People are digging the Inception vibes, Nolan's biggest non-Batman release, and this seems to promise a lot of cool action set pieces that will entice a lot of moviegoers. With August looking like a complete wasteland, that will only further help the movie's legs. Get ready to see JDW become a superstar like his old man. 70/240 (3.43x)

[TwoMisfits]

1 hour ago, Eric Laurence said:

July 10

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife: I know a lot of people are going nuts for the teaser, but....I don't know. Say what you will about the 2016 reboot, but I think it’s fair to say the toxic reactions toward that film have really damaged the Ghostbusters brand to the GA that even with the old gang back, I doubt even nostalgia will help it all that much. Still, Ghostbusters is a recognizable enough name, and buzz from the trailer so far is good enough that it should at least cross the century mark, though probably under the 2016 film. So hey, consolation prize for fans of that movie. 45/120 (2.67x)

 

The Purge 5: The last movie went down a touch, but nothing drastic. The fanbase still likes checking these movies out, and I trust Jason Blum to add a new twist here that will make people excited for this one too. Still down from the last movie, but good enough that we should still get at least one more movie. 28/65 (2.32x)

I'm gonna disagree on Ghostbusters...I think the 35-55 year old male is gonna carry the movie...and drag his kids...and this is going $200M+ if it's at all good...I've had 2 game guy friends (from my gaming group) forward me the trailer and ask me if I'd seen it yet...they don't tend to forward me trailers, so I know it's hitting this demo hard and well...

[WayneBorg]

I don't think Trolls, Scoob, Spongebob will all make over Minions.

Feel like people are being influenced by the Pets 2 performance and their dislike of Minions probably too much.

True Pets 2 did bad, but had crazy competition and DM3 dropped -21% from Minions in a similarly weak summer 2017.

I think Pets was never meant to be a franchise, while DM, like Jumanji this year for example, is an example of an IP that audiences are OK with as being a franchise.

Even Shrek 4 didn't drop that much from Shrek 3, despite the poor ratings. Ice Age 5 is an interesting comparison but I don't think it had that much of an impact, at least merchandize, as DM.

Edited December 31, 2019 by WayneBorg

[DAJK]

I’d say most of Eric’s predictions are pretty reasonable, which idk is a good thing or bad thing for this thread

[Eric Atreides]

July 24

 

Jungle Cruise: Despite Disney’s massive dominance at the box office, live-action material that isn’t a remake has really struggled. And while I see the potential, I don't see this bucking the trend. Reactions to the trailer when it first dropped felt kind of muted, and coming off the heels of two Jumanji movies, this could be an Abominable situation where people just aren’t interested in seeing The Rock in yet another jungle movie. But I think it will get across the century mark, although it wouldn’t surprise me if just barely, as it is one of the last family movies of the season, and arguably the last major biggie of the summer. Should help its legs at least. 35/115 (3.29x)

[Eric Atreides]

July 31

 

Barb and Star Go to Vista Del Mar: Kristen Wiig and the writer of Bridesmaids team up again to star in a new comedy? Cool! The director’s major works are random episodes of ABC sitcoms? Uh...okay? A marketing campaign that hides the face of the actresses for no reason? Why? I’m sure the movie will be fun enough, but its campaign is just too strange at the moment, and I think most people are confused at this movie rather than intrigued. Unless this is a critical darling, The Spy Who Dumped Me numbers sound about right. 10/28 (2.8x)

 

Morbius: Even with the Marvel connections, a Jared Leto vampire movie from Sony sounds similar to Screen Gems franchises like Underworld or Resident Evil. I’m sure once a trailer drops, I’ll change my mind, but this just doesn’t sound all that appealing to the GA. We’ll see. 18/40 (2.22x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 3

 

Free Guy: This feels like a family version of The Hitman’s Bodyguard in terms of box office. Reynolds will capitalize on his #brand for a Disney audience, and honestly? Good for him. This looks generic but fun, and I’m here for TV actors getting more roles. 50/150 (3x)

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru: hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha, I’m so ready for this franchise to fall hard. Secret Life of Pets 2 already showed what can happen when people don’t care about an Illumination sequel, and even though the Minions are cash cows, franchise fatigue was setting in with DM3. This isn’t a mainline film in the franchise, so the drop here will be even worse. Universal hasn’t even started marketing it yet, which is unheard of for Illumination! I’m thinking a similar sized drop as another Universal franchise (F8 to Hobbs and Shaw). 40/130 (3.25x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 10

 

Ghostbusters: Afterlife: Nope. This is lazy as fuck. Nobody wants to see Ghostbusters: Stranger Things. MIB International and Charlie’s Angels were bad reboots/sequels for Sony last year, and this will fall right in line with those. Jason Reitman has always been a low budget dude too, so how am I supposed to trust him with a franchise? Fuck outta here Sony. You sometimes get shit-talked too much, but this time, you deserve it. 30/80 (2.67x)

 

The Next Purge: This franchise is pretty consistent, Without a holiday opening this time, I think it’s going to drop a bit though. Idk. These movies are random. Maybe this time they’ll actually go to the white house or some shit. 20/50 (2.5x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 17

 

Bob’s Burgers: ayy we stan bob’s burgers! This is going to be a niche movie as the TV show has always been a bit niche, but hell yeah! Woo! Bob’s Burgers! 15/35 (2.33x)

 

TENET: OH DADDY NOLAN GIVE IT TO ME NOW. I’M READY FOR A NEW PROTAGONIST. Tenet has had (inter)stellar marketing so far between the teaser that’s been playing in theaters since August, and the #MAXIUMEFFECT trailer is GLORIOUS. The trailers reveal enough to get your interest without answering anything, and it looks incredibly unique even for a Nolan film. Inception was a breakout hit largely due to it’s unique concept, and I’m getting similar vibes here. M A X I M U M  E F F E C T . 80/340 (4.25x)

 

 

[DAJK]

The Purge movies seem to be the lowest-grossing movies ever that are known by literally EVERYBODY. Not one has made over 100M, but I have never met someone, regardless of their age (even my 88 year old grandmother who doesn't watch movies) who doesn't know what the Purge is. 

[WrathOfHan]

July 24

 

Jungle Cruise: Given this is a weak summer for live action family films and the success of the last two Jumanjis, Jungle Cruise is releasing at the right time. Collet-Serra always provides solid thrills, and I expect the same here. It’ll be a fun ride! 50/200 (4x)

[WrathOfHan]

July 31

 

Barb and Star Go To Vista Del Mar: Honestly, this has an effective teaser. Both times I’ve seen it in theaters, it’s always made the audience curious. Now, do I expect Lionsgate to capitalize on that curiosity and keep steam rolling for another 8 months? Ehhh. We’ll see. Honestly the teaser doesn’t help predicting this much because it’s still vague as hell. People love Kristen Wiig I guess? 15/60 (4x)

 

Morbius: Sony is teasing the possibility of Tom Hardy and Jared Leto being goofy as fuck together on screen, so I hope this succeeds for that alone. It’s a risky move to make a film on a very low tier Marvel character, but Sony has somehow not fucked up their last two non-MCU Marvel films. I doubt this does big numbers, but the budget is probably on the lower end. 40/110 (2.75x)

[WayneBorg]

59 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

July 3

 

Free Guy: This feels like a family version of The Hitman’s Bodyguard in terms of box office. Reynolds will capitalize on his #brand for a Disney audience, and honestly? Good for him. This looks generic but fun, and I’m here for TV actors getting more roles. 50/150 (3x)

 

Minions: The Rise of Gru: hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahhahahaha, I’m so ready for this franchise to fall hard. Secret Life of Pets 2 already showed what can happen when people don’t care about an Illumination sequel, and even though the Minions are cash cows, franchise fatigue was setting in with DM3. This isn’t a mainline film in the franchise, so the drop here will be even worse. Universal hasn’t even started marketing it yet, which is unheard of for Illumination! I’m thinking a similar sized drop as another Universal franchise (F8 to Hobbs and Shaw). 40/130 (3.25x)

About the marketing, Uni did launch a teaser in cinemas, and for the lack of online trailers, this piece explains why they are shortening all their campaigns for F9, Bond and M2,,

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/business/media/hollywood-blockbuster-marketing.html

Also Hobbs to F8 is a -25% if i recall right, so that drop gives M2 more than 130M going by that equation.

 

[Eric Atreides]

About to pull up my August predix, and looking things over YIKES that month looks UG-UL-EE. September isn't any better btw

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

About to pull up my August predix, and looking things over YIKES that month looks UG-UL-EE. September isn't any better btw

But Mitchells