Weekend Thread: SW 26.2/25.3/21 72.5M | Jumanji 11.7/12.4/11 35.1M | Frozen 6/5.85/5.3 17.15M

[Andreas]

2 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

First time Disney is overestimating a weekend?

If not -> TROS 2nd weekend > TLJ 2nd weekend -> I see this as an absolute win

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[sfran43]

 

[RockyMountain]

TROS earned about 22m more internationally this weekend than domestically. Looks like the totals might sway a bit more to the international side after all.

[sfran43]

 

[Gokira2012]

5 minutes ago, infamous5445 said:

So Disney is estimating like a 59% drop for the second weekend of TROS. Seems kind of optimistic of them.

The rise of Skywalker makes attack of the clones look like citizen cane

[ZackM]

56 minutes ago, a2k said:

@ZackM did a great job with tracking TROS on Sat.

Thank you, but I'm a little concerned with how the day played out and what it means for the reliability of my sample size.  While my final number, taking matinees in account, was pretty good, the evening increase that Jat saw was not at all present in my data.  I actually saw the opposite, with things slipping in the evening.  That level of divergence between my scale and the national scale doesn't bode well, I don't think.  But, I'll keep doing it for now.   It's entertaining enough and may prove to be moderately reliable in most cases.

[Menor the Destroyer]

Guessing that on days that TROS is supposed to drop, it will have normal drops, while on days it is supposed to bump  or hold flat, it will underperform (sort of like we saw with EG earlier this year). From 20 Sun (it will be -7 TLJ), could be:

 

Mon: 15.4 (-12 from TLJ)

Tues: 13.2 (-14.5 from TLJ)

Wed: 17.4 (-4.4 from TLJ)

Thurs: 9.0 (-10.5 from TLJ)

Fri: 10.6 (-8.4 from TLJ)

Sat: 12.9 (-7 from TLJ)

Sun: 7.6 (-6 from TLJ)

Mon: 2.1 (-12.2 from TLJ)

Tues: 3.0 (-4.9 from TLJ)

Wed: 1.8 (-3.2 from TLJ)

Thurs: 1.6  (-2.7 from TLJ)

Fri: 2.9 (-3.6 from TLJ)

Sat: 5 (-5.4 from TLJ)

Sun: 3.2 (-3.6 from TLJ)

 

At that point it would be -105.4 from TLJ's running total and likely to lose more as it kept going.

[raulbalarezo]

13 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

Disney trying to get it over TLJ second weekend 

 

Edited December 29, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[TalismanRing]

Weekend Domestic Chart for December 27, 2019

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Chart Index

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%LW	Thr	Thr Chng	Per Thr	Total Gross	W
1	(1)	Star Wars: The Rise o…	Walt Disney	$72,000,000	-59%	4,406	n/c	$16,341	$361,796,342	2
2	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pict…	$35,300,000	+33%	4,227	n/c	$8,351	$175,456,805	3
3	N	Little Women	Sony Pict…	$16,525,000		3,308		$4,995	$29,000,000	1
4	(3)	Frozen II	Walt Disney	$16,500,000	+27%	3,265	-400	$5,054	$421,290,889	6
5	N	Spies in Disguise	20th Cent…	$13,200,000		3,502		$3,769	$22,087,856	1
-	(5)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$9,725,000	+50%	2,022	-513	$4,810	$110,237,095	5
-	(15)	Uncut Gems	A24	$9,550,000	+3,856%	2,341	+2,336	$4,079	$21,074,669	3
-	(4)	Cats	Universal	$4,830,000	-27%	3,380	n/c	$1,429	$17,820,175	2
-	(6)	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$4,700,000	-8%	1,480	n/c	$3,176	$15,631,427	3
-	(7)	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$3,010,000	+17%	2,502	n/c	$1,203	$16,064,186	3
-	(9)	Ford v. Ferrari	20th Cent…	$1,800,000	-3%	793	-640	$2,270	$106,138,359	7
-	(8)	Queen & Slim	Universal	$1,760,000	-5%	699	-379	$2,518	$40,168,280	5
-	(11)	A Beautiful Day in th…	Sony Pict…	$1,445,000	+8%	1,014	-510	$1,425	$55,868,042	6
-	(10)	Black Christmas	Universal	$910,000	-50%	1,514	-1,111	$601	$9,628,330	3
-	N	1917	Universal	$570,000		11		$51,818	$1,008,099	1
-	(12)	Parasite	Neon	$552,956	+15%	170	-57	$3,253	$22,328,628	12
-	(-)	21 Bridges	STX Enter…	$250,000		229		$1,092	$27,680,000	6
-	(16)	Jojo Rabbit	Fox Searc…	$250,000	+31%	208	-22	$1,202	$20,917,369	11
-	(14)	A Hidden Life	Fox Searc…	$208,000	-16%	118	+12	$1,763	$756,065	3
-	(22)	Maleficent: Mistress …	Walt Disney	$178,000	+65%	155	-25	$1,148	$113,231,744	11
-	(13)	Dark Waters	Focus Fea…	$175,000	-45%	140	-311	$1,250	$10,532,219	6
-	(18)	Playing with Fire	Paramount…	$165,000	+3%	188	-99	$878	$44,067,851	8
-	(19)	Midway	Lionsgate	$142,000	-11%	142	-141	$1,000	$56,203,922	8
-	(21)	Harriet	Focus Fea…	$130,000	+20%	112	-91	$1,161	$42,481,420	9
-	N	Just Mercy	Warner Bros.	$110,000		4		$27,500	$228,072	1
-	(17)	Last Christmas	Universal	$72,000	-57%	154	-120	$468	$35,084,985	8
-	(24)	Abominable	Universal	$60,000	+8%	119	-27	$504	$60,646,840	14
-	N	Clemency	Neon	$37,078		2		$18,539	$37,078	1
-	(31)	63 Up	BritBox	$33,810	+3%	17	-4	$1,989	$229,280	5
-	(41)	En Brazos de un Asesino	Lionsgate	$5,000	-33%	18	-6	$278	$420,687	4

[Madhuvan]

Little Women is overestimated. Frozen 2 will be third 

I don't understand why the Studios love ot overestimate numbers. 

 

WB overestimate almost every movie by a sizable number. 

Edited December 29, 2019 by Madhuvan

[Menor the Destroyer]

Deadline: "The industry confidence is that Skywalker will end its domestic run around where Last Jedi was with $620.1M."

 

This has got to be the worst I've ever seen out of them and that is saying something.

Edited December 29, 2019 by Menor

[raulbalarezo]

https://deadline.com/2019/12/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-little-women-uncut-gems-spies-in-disguise-post-christmas-box-office-1202817539/
 

Throughout Friday, most industry estimates showed Disney’s Star Wars: Rise of Skywalker beating Last Jedi in its 10th day of release (on Sunday) by $12.8M. But they retreated significantly on their forecasts with the ninth-quel showing a reported running total of $361.8M through 10 days, $6.3M behind Last Jedi at the same point in time. Still, that’s a pretty powerful piece of business and one that exhibition shouldn’t be complaining about. Skywalker‘s weekend per Disney is $72M, -59% (a much better hold than Last Jedi‘s second weekend -68% drop), after a Saturday that was $25.3M, -3%. Five-day came in at $134.75M. The industry confidence is that Skywalker will end its domestic run around where Last Jedi was with $620.1M). 

 

Edited December 29, 2019 by raulbalarezo

[Blaze Heatnix]

Well, lookie lookie at what Deadline is saying ( yeah, they're comparing TROS to the previous movie that got released 1 week before holiday season )

 

"Skywalker‘s weekend per Disney is $72M, -59% (a much better hold than Last Jedi‘s second weekend -68% drop)"

 

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

OMFG, that “industry confidence” is some pure unleaded horseshit. Amazing.

[sfran43]

 

[cdsacken]

1 hour ago, raulbalarezo said:

Jumanji 

It's very good not Earth shattering. Massive drop from last one. People should be going nuts for Frozen 2 if Jumanji impresses them.

 

Industry confidence in 620m lol. Id bet it's closer to 500 than to 600 much less 620

Edited December 29, 2019 by cdsacken

[wildphantom]

19 minutes ago, Gokira2012 said:

The rise of Skywalker makes attack of the clones look like citizen cane

Keep on trolling.  Embarrassing mate.