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NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

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2 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Tuesday 1st Projections

 

SW: TRoS: $14-14.5mn

J2: $11.5mn

F2: $4.75mn

 

Happy New Year Everyone.

There must be discounts today. All those numbers would be super strong for NYE.

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28 minutes ago, a2k said:

frozen didn't have good/great fri/sat jumps during dec holidays has it was functioning at a higher level during weekdays. but i agree that 3-3.5x is more likely than 4x more for JTNL.

fri

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sat

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I would be happy for jumanji if it will made 22 mln this weekend, but i still think it's quite too optimistic. 9.5 mln Saturday is just 24% less than last saturday. 

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7 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Tuesday 1st Projections

 

SW: TRoS: $14-14.5mn

J2: $11.5mn

F2: $4.75mn

 

Happy New Year Everyone.

 

PS are stronger than they usually are on Eve, is it Tuesday discount today?

WTF at Jumanji. Over TROS this weekend?

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6 minutes ago, Menor said:

There must be discounts today. All those numbers would be super strong for NYE.

If there are then PSm will drop a lil more than I took for. Usually it drop around 15% for NYE and 35% for Discount Tuesday. I took 20%.

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10 years ago, The Blind Side opened with 34m and legs it out to 255m total. that film posted 7.5x multiplier.

 

Such run from non-action flick is almost impossible in this era. Take Ford v Ferrari as example, both film released in mid-Nov with pg-13 rating. Both film feature sport-theme that earned A+ cinemascore which eventually led them to Oscar race. Coincidentally, both films have opening gross at similar range (34m vs 31.4m) 

However, Ford v ferrari may just have half of the leg of the Blind Side. 

 

10 years ago, we have two non-action/VFX oriented film broke 250m (Hangover : 277m & The Blind side : 255m)

 

This year, outside of Joker (which clearly leverage on its DC brand and its iconic status in comic book culture) , the highest grossing of non-action/VFX film was just US at 174m , OUATIH at 141m and KO at 140m-150m.

 

Those figure aren't even yet taking inflation into account. 

 

It just prove that how much audience the drama cinema has lost over the decade to streaming   

'

 

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

If there are then PSm will drop a lil more than I took for. Usually it drop around 15% for NYE and 35% for Discount Tuesday. I took 20%.

25% will put the SW number in normal range but then F2 will still be flat and Jumanji still at an incredible 10.8.

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If I remember, Jumanji is appealing to a more diverse audience.  Some of that audience might not have had Dec 26-27 or Dec 30 off, but lots of places do close for Dec 24/25 and Dec 31/Jan 1...plus, it's also the movie really hitting the aged 13-25 audience - aka, those needing something to do New Year's Eve that are too young or poor for the $100+ plated restaurant parties...
 

Put that together, and it will probably have a great 2 days again...

Edited by TwoMisfits
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Jumanji isn't pissing off anyone. It's hard to see a movie again if you hated it or hated some plot points and don't want to sit through them.

 

Fingers crossed LW legs it out to 100M. Any numbers for that?

 

happy New year to all who are already in Jan 1 in their timezone!:)

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16 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

10 years ago, The Blind Side opened with 34m and legs it out to 255m total. that film posted 7.5x multiplier.

 

Such run from non-action flick is almost impossible in this era. Take Ford v Ferrari as example, both film released in mid-Nov with pg-13 rating. Both film feature sport-theme that earned A+ cinemascore which eventually led them to Oscar race. Coincidentally, both films have opening gross at similar range (34m vs 31.4m) 

However, Ford v ferrari may just have half of the leg of the Blind Side. 

 

10 years ago, we have two non-action/VFX oriented film broke 250m (Hangover : 277m & The Blind side : 255m)

 

This year, outside of Joker (which clearly leverage on its DC brand and its iconic status in comic book culture) , the highest grossing of non-action/VFX film was just US at 174m , OUATIH at 141m and KO at 140m-150m.

 

Those figure aren't even yet taking inflation into account. 

 

It just prove that how much audience the drama cinema has lost over the decade to streaming   

'

The Blind Side had crazy legs for it's own era.   It was a warm and fuzzy feel good film and about American football, the underdog and family starring Sandra Bullock at the height of her fame.   Ford v Ferrari was never going to hit that sweet spot.

 

It's like people trying to project 1917 off of American Sniper's run or even that Walberg war flick

 

Look at 2008 and there's one $100m+ drama breakout - Juno at $115m

2007- American Gangster - $125m

2006- The Departed $120m

2005 - Million $ Baby - $99m

 

You have to back until another unusual breakout in 2004: Passion of The Christ -  $370m .  Way behind it were movies like Collateral $100m  & Oceans 12 (which like The Departed & AG were crime thrillers as much as they were dramas - and all with big stars)

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43 minutes ago, Jedi Jat said:

Tuesday 1st Projections

 

SW: TRoS: $14-14.5mn

J2: $11.5mn*

F2: $4.75mn

 

Happy New Year Everyone.

 

PS are stronger than they usually are on Eve, is it Tuesday discount today?

images?q=tbn:ANd9GcSKaxjf1QTm1ahZhDWCdj7

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Mendelson still thinks it will go above Lion King's $543M. 😂

He's still comparing 11 day totals for all the movies and completely ignoring the realities of the calendar.

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2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

He's still comparing 11 day totals for all the movies and completely ignoring the realities of the calendar.

 

What's strange is he acknowledges the calendar issue in his comments, but then uses crazy projections anyway. He's predicting a 35% drop for Weekend #3. Lol

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