NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[Avatree]

 

Happy new year everyone, and looking forward to Star Wars passing 500M. 

 

 

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Avatree

[a2k]

11 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What's strange is he acknowledges the calendar issue in his comments, but then uses crazy projections anyway. He's predicting a 35% drop for Weekend #3. Lol

when he sees the weekend drop

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by a2k

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

when he sees the weekend drop

 

 

What are you projecting for it? He's giving it $47M, which is on the absolute high end possibility from what I can tell. Looking at the 2013 calendar, these were the weekend results compared to Monday, December 30th: 

 

Frozen = $19.6M/$7.9M = 2.5x

Hobbit 2 = $15.7M/$6.5M = 2.4x

American Hustle = $12.4M/$4M = 3.1x

Anchorman 2 = $10.6M/$4.4M = 2.4x

Mr. Banks = $8.7M/$2.9M = 3x

 

The average of the 5 movies is about 2.7x on the Monday number. This would deliver $41M weekend for Skywalker after $15.2M on Monday. Low end at 2.4x would be $36.5M and high end at 3.1x would be $47M. 

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

What are you projecting for it? He's giving it $47M, which is on the absolute high end possibility from what I can tell. Looking at the 2013 calendar, these were the weekend results compared to Monday, December 30th: 

 

Frozen = $19.6M/$7.9M = 2.5x

Hobbit 2 = $15.7M/$6.5M = 2.4x

American Hustle = $12.4M/$4M = 3.1x

Anchorman 2 = $10.6M/$4.4M = 2.4x

Mr. Banks = $8.7M/$2.9M = 3x

 

The average of the 5 movies is about 2.7x on the Monday number. This would deliver $41M weekend for Skywalker after $15.2M on Monday. Low end at 2.4x would be $36.5M and high end at 3.1x would be $47M. 

Same movies last Mon:weekend —  

Frozen 3.95x

DoS 3.7x

Anch2 3.4x

 

TROS 2.46x    
 

Now admittedly TROS Monday was the only day 4 in the mix, and spill over inflated, which deflates the multi. But I think it may do just 2.3x the Mon or so for an O/U bar of 35M weekend.

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Arendelle Legion

[John Marston]

A film that appeals to the whole family can do really well in the holiday season and the Jumanji movies have hit the sweet spot 

[John Marston]

Surprised Jake Kasdan hasn’t been scooped up for a Star Wars movie especially given the familiarly connection. Also would be a good choice for Indy 5 if Spielberg decides to just produce 

[Valonqar]

which Kasdan Jr wrote Solo? same or different?

[dudalb]

27 minutes ago, John Marston said:

A film that appeals to the whole family can do really well in the holiday season and the Jumanji movies have hit the sweet spot 

That is why I think "Doolittle" not getting Holiday release is a Red Flag that the studio does not have much faith in the film;it has "Holiday  Family FIlm Release" written all over it.

IMHO,Universal can kiss their 175 Million goodbye with that one.

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by dudalb

[John Marston]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

which Kasdan Jr wrote Solo? same or different?

Different. Jon Kasdan 

[Valonqar]

Thanks!

[narniadis]

With the big 3 at least corporately saying no discount Tuesdays, I wonder if some in other places may be ignoring it or can they on a local level? Also @Jedi Jat dont forget that Canada is a major Discount place which didnt take a break so it is a factor in someways. 

[Nova]

5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

That is why I think "Doolittle" not getting Holiday release is a Red Flag that the studio does not have much faith in the film;it has "Holiday  Family FIlm Release" written all over it.

IMHO,Universal can kiss their 175 Million goodbye with that one.

 

99% of films that get stamped with a January release should have a red flag. Those films could be released literally at any other point during the year but instead get dumped into the wasteland of January. There’s an occasional good film here and there but for the most part it’s where films go to die. 
 

As for Dr. Doolittle: Universal is ending the decade with a bomb and starting the decade with a bomb. 

Edited December 31, 2019 by Nova

[narniadis]

That being said, those numbers would be good / great if they hold. Would be curious how Tomorrow goes if this is the case. 

[TalismanRing]

Universal deciding to give the Christmas slot to Cats which still hasn't finished VFX  while having RDJ promote mid Jan release Dolittle with Christmas themed videos is to say the least ODD.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Universal deciding to give the Christmas slot to Cats which still hasn't finished VFX  while having RDJ promote mid Jan release Dolittle with Christmas themed videos is to say the least ODD.

They should have released Dolittle which cost like $75M more than Cats in December because it would have at least made back some of its budget with holiday legs. And dumped Cats in January. If they wanted awards buzz for Cats (lol) then just have it screen for critics and the Academy before deadlines. 

[John Marston]

They probably had faith in Cats because of Tom Hooper who directed Les Mis for them which ended up being a big hit and Oscar player 

[dudalb]

10 minutes ago, Nova said:

99% of films that get stamped with a January release should have a red flag. Those films could be released literally at any other point during the year but instead get dumped into the wasteland of January. There’s an occasional good film here and there but for the most part it’s where films go to die. 
 

As for Dr. Doolittle: Universal is ending the decade with a bomb and starting the decade with a bomb. 

I don't thing January is quite the dumping ground it once was, but, yeah, it has more then it's fair share of bombs.

ONce agai n, that Universal decided to open a film that had "Holiday Release" written all over it in late January is a sign the studio knows it has a turkey on it's hands.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, dudalb said:

I don't thing January is quite the dumping ground it once was, but, yeah, it has more then it's fair share of bombs.

ONce agai n, that Universal decided to open a film that had "Holiday Release" written all over it in late January is a sign the studio knows it has a turkey on it's hands.

I just don’t get my hopes up with January releases. Hopefully the tide is turning similar to how February or September were once dumping months but not anymore. But yea what’s even more shocking is they had a turkey with Cats yet that still kept the holiday release. Dolittle can’t be worse than Cats. Should have switched their release dates imo Dolittle would have def made more than Cats did during the holidays. 

[stealthyfrog]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

I just don’t get my hopes up with January releases. Hopefully the tide is turning similar to how February or September were once dumping months but not anymore. But yea what’s even more shocking is they had a turkey with Cats yet that still kept the holiday release. Dolittle can’t be worse than Cats. Should have switched their release dates imo Dolittle would have def made more than Cats did during the holidays. 

Dolittle seems to have had a rough production but it won't be nearly as bad as Cats

[cdsacken]

3 hours ago, Krissykins said:

The daily cdsacken BVS/Justice League comment lol

BVS wasn’t a failure, didn’t lose money and didn’t “just break even”. So 3 incorrect statements from you. Deadline estimated at least $105m in profit. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/deadline.com/2017/03/batman-v-superman-box-office-profit-2016-1202049201/amp/

And that's wrong. Production cost was at least 400 million. Deadline is wrong about basically everything.

 

Yeah I'm pissed about BVS because it killed Superman. It sucks. He ruined one of the best superhero franchises. Batman survived thankfully.

 

 

Edited December 31, 2019 by cdsacken