NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

		Movie	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
-	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	$10,925,000	+32%	-13%	4,227	$2,585	$203,001,805	20
-	(3)	Little Women	$5,250,000	+28%	-18%	3,308	$1,587	$42,855,000	8
-	(-)	Richard Jewell	$1,130,000	+9%	-20%	2,502	$452	$18,984,186	20
-	(-)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	$562,000	+16%	+1%	1,014	$554	$57,283,042	41
-	(-)	Playing with Fire	$64,000	+52%	+52%	188	$340	$44,214,929	55

[sfran43]

 

[a2k]

JUM

 

Jan 1, 2020

-

$10,925,000

+32%

-13%

4,227

$2,585

$203,001,805

20

 

5.5 (-50%) // 208.5

 

7.2 (+31%)

10 (+39%)

5.8 (-42%)

= 23.0 // 231.5

 

231.5 + 23.0*3.5 = 312

[Menor the Destroyer]

52 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

if it posts over 30 this weekend and is at around 450, it can’t miss 500 imo. 

Doesn't seem too hard to me, 450 + 30*1.6 gives 498. Hobbit did 1.86 times the weekend and TROS has been dropping a lot worse.

[1Robert1]

38 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

TROS is actually following LOTR Two Towers (2002 was the same calender-wise as 2013 and 2019) this week very closely as opposed to Smaug

 

TROS                              LOTR TT                               Smaug

Mon (-28%)                    Mon (-31.7%)                      Mon (-22.8%)

Tues (-14.3%)                 Tues (-16.2%)                       Tues (-15.1%)

Wed (+27% est)              Wed (+30.8%)                     Wed (+41%)

 

In fact, if Jat's estimates hold, TROS's Wed/Mon ratio is identical to that of LOTR TT  

 

I find it unlikely that TROS will follow TT's multiple from this Sunday onwards (in which case it would comfortably pass 500m), but still, its weaker drops/jumps midweek are right in line with TT 

LOTR had much better WOM

16.8m today for tros(according to Jat) lotr day after had 42% decline it gives 9.75 Thu, 11.5 Friday (+19%), 16.3 sat(+42%)

10.3 sun(-37%) 38.1 FFS.

Lotr had 3x after this weekend, so something like 2x for TROS is possible.

 

[ZackM]

Just now, Menor said:

Doesn't seem too hard to me, 450 + 30*1.6 gives 498. Hobbit did 1.86 times the weekend and TROS has been dropping a lot worse.

It will need more than 30 to get to 450 though.

[Menor the Destroyer]

14 minutes ago, ZackM said:

It will need more than 30 to get to 450 though.

Fair it would be more like 34. I still don't think missing 500 is impossible from that though, it would have to start having a much better trend to go over. @Justin4125 I'm not sure how useful TT is as a comp given how different leg patterns were in 2002.

 

Edit: corrected about it needing to drop like Smaug.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Menor

[ZackM]

4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Fair it would be more like 34. I still don't think missing 500 is impossible from that though, it would have to start matching Smaug's drops to go over. @Justin4125 I'm not sure how useful TT is as a comp given how different leg patterns were in 2002.

450 + 34 * 1.47 = 499.98

[kswiston]

Hitting Rogue One domestic is dead. Rogue One will go from being 50M behind on Tuesday to being maybe 10M behind this coming Monday. 

 

My guess is that Rogue One pulls ahead by the end of weekend 4, and that weekend 4 for RO is 8-10M higher than TROS. 

 

I still think that Disney pushes TROS to 500 if it looks to get close (which it does), but I am not expecting much better than BatB domestic. 

Edited January 2, 2020 by kswiston

[Menor the Destroyer]

2 minutes ago, ZackM said:

450 + 34 * 1.47 = 499.98

True I shouldn't have said that it needs to drop like Smaug. It just needs to start having a better trend than it has been though where daily bumps have been way below comps. 

[a2k]

I used 34 FSS in my projection a page or two back but I doubt it cracks 32 FSS / 448 cume.

Would need just about 1.6x the FSS to get 500 dom. And it's not as if Disney will let it stay put at 497.

Unless Thu drop is crap at low 50% followed by a bad Fri bump of say high-teens 500 looks very likely.

[Menor the Destroyer]

4 minutes ago, a2k said:

I used 34 FSS in my projection a page or two back but I doubt it cracks 32 FSS / 448 cume.

Would need just about 1.6x the FSS to get 500 dom. And it's not as if Disney will let it stay put at 497.

Unless Thu drop is crap at low 50% followed by a bad Fri bump of say high-teens 500 looks very likely.

With 32/448 I'd see it getting to low 490s. Not sure if they would push it from there.

[John Marston]

 It will make slightly over 500m which to be clear is not impressive for a  movie heavily promoted as the end of the 42 year old saga  in any shape or form 

[titanic2187]

26 minutes ago, a2k said:

JUM

 

Jan 1, 2020

-

$10,925,000

+32%

-13%

4,227

$2,585

$203,001,805

20

 

5.5 (-50%) // 208.5

 

7.2 (+31%)

10 (+39%)

5.8 (-42%)

= 23.0 // 231.5

 

231.5 + 23.0*3.5 = 312

It is the first week-to-week drop for Jumanji 3 in a while

[Eric Duncan]

Sorry if this was already posted

 

https://deadline.com/2020/01/star-wars-rise-of-skywalker-has-a-happy-new-year-shoots-past-400m-the-grudge-previews-tonight-1202819475/

 

Quote

Early morning estimates show Disney’s Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker crossing the $400 million mark stateside with $407.8M after a New Year’s Day of $17.2M. That take bests the New Year’s Day cash of The Last Jedi ($14.2M), and isn’t that far from Rogue One‘s New Year’s Day of $16.75M.  Among the highest grossing New Year’s Day ticket sales, Skywalker currently ranks fourth behind Force Awakens ($34.3M Jan 1. 2016), Avatar ($25.2M, Jan. 1, 2010), and Meet the Fockers ($18.2M, Jan. 1, 2005).

 

In spots 2 and 3 yesterday, Sony’s Jumani: The Next Level and Little Women respectively made $10.9M and $5.25M. Next Level plants itself at $203M in its 20th day of release, which is 18% behind Welcome to the Jungle at the same point in time, that movie finaling at $404.5M. Through eight days, Little Women stands at $42.8M.

 

The Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems is the gift that keeps on giving to A24 with the pic in its 9th day of wide release making $3.1M in 7th place for a running total of $27.3M. By today, Uncut Gems will pass Midsommar ($27.4M) as A24’s fourth highest grossing pic stateside after Lady Bird ($48.9M), Hereditary ($44M) and Moonlight ($27.9M). That’s the fifth day of the Adam Sandler’ pic’s nine wide days that has grossed over $3M in a single day, Christmas being its highest with $5.9M.

 

[MrGlass2]

12 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

New Year’s Day of $17.2M. That take bests the New Year’s Day cash of The Last Jedi ($14.2M) ...

 

Next Level plants itself at $203M in its 20th day of release, which is 18% behind Welcome to the Jungle at the same point in time

Oh so Deadline does have the technology to compare movies at same point in time, they just choose not to do it for TROS/TLJ.

[Cap]

MODERATION:

 

Another thing that is sooooo last decade? Marty’s Hot Takes on Superhero movies. If you want to talk about that @La Binoche, take it to the Fandom Wars Thread. 
 

Thank you,

Happy New Year Everyone!

[stripe]

17.2M would be nice, but is that more recent estimate than Jedi Jat?

[sfran43]