NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

[sfran43]

 

[Eric Duncan]

9 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

Oh so Deadline does have the technology to compare movies at same point in time, they just choose not to do it for TROS/TLJ.

They did. I just didn’t bother pasting it because the whole Deadline roasting session is so 2019

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

4 minutes ago, Eric Laurence said:

They did. I just didn’t bother pasting it because the whole Deadline roasting session is so 2019

 

[Legion Again]

Is it just me, or is 13.5 OS New Years crazy weak. Don’t most markets get a boost for NY?

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

Whats are the odds. I was juet humming it.

[charlie Jatinder]

5 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Is it just me, or is 13.5 OS New Years crazy weak. Don’t most markets get a boost for NY?

Yeah and weirdly I have Frozen 2 at $13.4mn Wednesday 😛

There's no market except SK at this moment where F2 is ahead TRoS.

 

Also make clear that Monday wasn't $20.9mn but Disney adjusted previous week numbers.

Edited January 2, 2020 by Jedi Jat

[Valonqar]

so with 16.9M Wednesday, is 40M weekend back on table for TROS?

[sfran43]

 

[Menor the Destroyer]

11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Is it just me, or is 13.5 OS New Years crazy weak. Don’t most markets get a boost for NY?

Yeah that seems really bad to me. Also OS and DOM being basically even after New Years, with DOM having the higher daily number, seems quite bad. From here on DOM should start holding better than OS right?

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

so with 16.9M Wednesday, is 40M weekend back on table for TROS?

 

Nope. Will probably be around $33-36M. Smaug's January 3rd weekend was 2x the January 1st gross. So for Skywalker, that would be $17M x 2 = $34M.

[Justin4125]

8 minutes ago, Menor said:

Fair it would be more like 34. I still don't think missing 500 is impossible from that though, it would have to start matching Smaug's drops to go over. @Justin4125 I'm not sure how useful TT is as a comp given how different leg patterns were in 2002.

You're right, as I mentioned I don't think its fair to extrapolate a multi for TROS from TT, I'm more focused on the next couple of days

 

Smaug held better than TT during Jan 3-5 (41% drop compared to TT's 48.8% drop) and I think we all agree TROS will drop more like TT than Smaug. If it does drop like TT, I think it helps to affirm the validity of the comparison. Though surely TT legged it out better than TROS will, when it comes to short-term forecasting, it seems dailies do help predict weekend performance (as an aside, discount days (Tuesday) have skewed daily comparisons for films so many years apart, but ratios between thursday/monday numbers still do well in predicting weekend performance since daily jumps within weekends havent changed much in 17 years). I think when it comes to comparing daily changes during the holiday stretch, its better to find a film that is a calender equivalent (like TT) as opposed to a more recent film where holidays fell on different days 

 

I also think the comparison is interesting for two other reasons. First, Smaug released a week earlier than TROS and TT. It had already burned a bit more demand, which I think helps explain its bigger jumps/shallower drops within the holiday stretch compared to TROS and TT

 

Secondly, despite being one of the best movies since the turn of the millenia, even by today's standards TT's legs aren't that extraordinary for its release date (as I mentioned its within holiday holds are worse than those for Smaug, though again I think this is largely due to Smaug's earlier release date). In fact, when lining up TT and Smaug, it seems the biggest difference from Jan 3-5 onwards numbers-wise comes down to the competition each film faced. TT's stronger holds from Jan 3-5 onwards could easily be ascribed to the leggier runs of older movies and the film's stronger WOM, but it also faced notably less competition.

 

So far it seems TROS will face competition that is more comparable to Smaug than to TT. Similar levels of competition and mixed WOM could easily lead to Smaug-like (or worse) drops post holiday for TROS, but if Dolittle and Bad Boys fizzle out, I think its possible TROS will hold better than anticipated. Obviously the big question is how well TROS will hold once the holiday is over and its burned off its fanboy demand, and while I don't expect great things, I think at the least the TT comparsion suggests that the end-multi isn't so clear from mid-weeks at this stage in release

 

 

[sfran43]

 

[Legion Again]

Multiplier from NYD DOM should be roughly in line with RO/TLJ, maybe  bit worse, maaaaybe bit better.   
 

RO NYD OS was Sunday, so no data.

 

TLJ NYD OS: Star Wars: The Last Jedi grossed an estimated $12.3M internationally on Monday.  International total stands at $534.8M, global total stands at $1.067B.   
 

Final OS on those markets (only missing China) should be 670M. Added 135M for about 11x. Gives 150M more for TROS for 555ish.     
 

Also TLJ OS Tuesday Jan 2nd was up from Jan 1st. Maybe NYD is actually depressed somehow for SW 🤷‍♂️

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nope. Will probably be around $33-36M. Smaug's January 3rd weekend was 2x the January 1st gross. So for Skywalker, that would be $17M x 2 = $34M.

Thanks for explaining. I'm as bad with multis as Deadline. 

[redfirebird2008]

4 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Thanks for explaining. I'm as bad with multis as Deadline. 

 

Nah. Deadline gets paid good money to be that bad at this stuff. Besides, $40M is probably too optimistic but it's not impossible. If it performs similar to Frozen 1 or Two Towers, it will land around $38M. Pretty close to your $40M question. But odds are we should expect something in that $33-36M area. 

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Nah. Deadline gets paid good money to be that bad at this stuff. Besides, $40M is probably too optimistic but it's not impossible. If it performs similar to Frozen 1 or Two Towers, it will land around $38M. Pretty close to your $40M question. But odds are we should expect something in that $33-36M area. 

perhaps I should apply for the job? 

[a2k]

		Movie	Distr	Gross	%YD	%LW	Thr	Per Thr	Total Gross	D
1	(1)	Star Wars: The Rise of Sk…	Walt Disney	$16,900,000	+29%	-47%	4,406	$3,836	$407,502,536	13
-	(2)	Jumanji: The Next Level	Sony Pictures	$10,925,000	+32%	-13%	4,227	$2,585	$203,001,805	20
-	(3)	Little Women	Sony Pictures	$5,250,000	+28%	-18%	3,308	$1,587	$42,855,000	8
-	(6)	Knives Out	Lionsgate	$3,500,000	+19%	-4%	2,022	$1,731	$119,226,694	36
-	(-)	Bombshell	Lionsgate	$1,530,000	+19%	-25%	1,480	$1,034	$19,639,144	20
-	(-)	Richard Jewell	Warner Bros.	$1,130,000	+9%	-20%	2,502	$452	$18,984,186	20
-	(-)	A Beautiful Day in the Ne…	Sony Pictures	$562,000	+16%	+1%	1,014	$554	$57,283,042	41
-	(-)	Playing with Fire	Paramount Pi…	$64,000	+52%	+52%	188	$340	$44,214,929	55
-	(-)	Midway	Lionsgate	$58,300	+27%	+45%	142	$411	$56,337,020	55
-	(-)	Just Mercy	Warner Bros.	$39,000	+70%	-52%	4	$9,750	$308,072	8
-	(-)	No Safe Spaces	Atlas Distri…	$4,270	+47%	+175%	14	$305	$1,163,629	69
-	(-)	En Brazos de un Asesino	Lionsgate	$2,000	+488%	+26%	18	$111	$424,335	27

[sfran43]

 

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

perhaps I should apply for the job? 

 

Haha, not a bad idea!