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charlie Jatinder

NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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John Marston Global Phenomenon

John Marston

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, Justin4125 said:

You're right, as I mentioned I don't think its fair to extrapolate a multi for TROS from TT, I'm more focused on the next couple of days

 

Smaug held better than TT during Jan 3-5 (41% drop compared to TT's 48.8% drop) and I think we all agree TROS will drop more like TT than Smaug. If it does drop like TT, I think it helps to affirm the validity of the comparison. Though surely TT legged it out better than TROS will, when it comes to short-term forecasting, it seems dailies do help predict weekend performance (as an aside, discount days (Tuesday) have skewed daily comparisons for films so many years apart, but ratios between thursday/monday numbers still do well in predicting weekend performance since daily jumps within weekends havent changed much in 17 years). I think when it comes to comparing daily changes during the holiday stretch, its better to find a film that is a calender equivalent (like TT) as opposed to a more recent film where holidays fell on different days 

 

I also think the comparison is interesting for two other reasons. First, Smaug released a week earlier than TROS and TT. It had already burned a bit more demand, which I think helps explain its bigger jumps/shallower drops within the holiday stretch compared to TROS and TT

 

Secondly, despite being one of the best movies since the turn of the millenia, even by today's standards TT's legs aren't that extraordinary for its release date (as I mentioned its within holiday holds are worse than those for Smaug, though again I think this is largely due to Smaug's earlier release date). In fact, when lining up TT and Smaug, it seems the biggest difference from Jan 3-5 onwards numbers-wise comes down to the competition each film faced. TT's stronger holds from Jan 3-5 onwards could easily be ascribed to the leggier runs of older movies and the film's stronger WOM, but it also faced notably less competition.

 

So far it seems TROS will face competition that is more comparable to Smaug than to TT. Similar levels of competition and mixed WOM could easily lead to Smaug-like (or worse) drops post holiday for TROS, but if Dolittle and Bad Boys fizzle out, I think its possible TROS will hold better than anticipated. Obviously the big question is how well TROS will hold once the holiday is over and its burned off its fanboy demand, and while I don't expect great things, I think at the least the TT comparsion suggests that the end-multi isn't so clear from mid-weeks at this stage in release

 

 

 

 

Two Towers received multiple Oscar noms. I don't know how much of a big deal that was back then but it probably contributed to it holding really well

 

ROS I expect to drop a lot harder after holidays

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a2k Global Phenomenon

a2k

Posted
Posted (edited)

maybe worth noting how under-whelming last Thu was for non-openers compared to 2013

 

last Thu (link)

Spoiler
    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr 		Total
Gross 		D
1 (1) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $30,586,950 -5%   4,406 $6,942 $289,796,816 7
2 (2) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $11,150,000 -11% +247% 4,227 $2,638 $140,156,805 14
3 (3) Little Women Sony Pictures $6,050,000 -6%   3,308 $1,829 $12,475,000 2
4 (6) Frozen II Walt Disney $5,541,855 +34% +191% 3,265 $1,697 $404,790,889 35
5 (5) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $4,126,946 -13%   3,502 $1,178 $8,887,856 2
6 (4) Uncut Gems A24 $3,392,288 -43% +6,698% 2,341 $1,449 $11,466,485 14
7 (7) Knives Out Lionsgate $3,188,785 -13% +250% 2,022 $1,577 $100,430,571 30
8 (8) Cats Universal $1,804,195 -15%   3,380 $534 $12,990,175 7
9 (9) Bombshell Lionsgate $1,593,496 -22% +10,241% 1,480 $1,077 $10,941,102 14
10 (10) Richard Jewell Warner Bros. $1,015,000 -28% +147% 2,502 $406 $13,054,186 14

 

2013 Thu (link)

Spoiler
    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr 		Total
Gross 		D
- (-) The Hobbit: The Desolatio… Warner Bros. $10,523,771 +13% +109% 3,928 $2,679 $160,469,546 14
- (-) Anchorman 2: The Legend C… Paramount Pi… $7,363,835 +27% +44% 2,507 $2,937 $63,517,018 9
- (-) The Wolf of Wall Street Paramount Pi… $6,641,180 -27%   2,537 $2,618 $15,791,559 2
- (-) The Secret Life of Walter… 20th Century… $4,781,588 -39%   2,909 $1,644 $12,594,960 2
- (-) 47 Ronin Universal $3,670,485 -48%   2,689 $1,365 $10,702,220 2
- (-) The Hunger Games: Catchin… Lionsgate $3,039,832 +20% +123% 2,949 $1,031 $380,923,843 35
- (-) Tyler Perry's A Madea Chr… Lionsgate $2,229,608 -25% +145% 2,194 $1,016 $36,319,076 14
- (-) Grudge Match Warner Bros. $2,160,738 -45%   2,838 $761 $6,118,222 2
- (-) Walking with Dinosaurs 20th Century… $2,142,241 +24%   2,909 $736 $13,668,306 7
- (-) Justin Bieber’s Believe Open Road $1,012,500 -19%   1,037 $976 $2,262,500 2

 

Edited by a2k
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misafeco Box Office Gold

misafeco

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, a2k said:

maybe worth noting how under-whelming last Thu was for non-openers compared to 2013

 

last Thu (link)

  Hide contents
    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr 		Total
Gross 		D
1 (1) Star Wars: The Rise of Sk… Walt Disney $30,586,950 -5%   4,406 $6,942 $289,796,816 7
2 (2) Jumanji: The Next Level Sony Pictures $11,150,000 -11% +247% 4,227 $2,638 $140,156,805 14
3 (3) Little Women Sony Pictures $6,050,000 -6%   3,308 $1,829 $12,475,000 2
4 (6) Frozen II Walt Disney $5,541,855 +34% +191% 3,265 $1,697 $404,790,889 35
5 (5) Spies in Disguise 20th Century… $4,126,946 -13%   3,502 $1,178 $8,887,856 2
6 (4) Uncut Gems A24 $3,392,288 -43% +6,698% 2,341 $1,449 $11,466,485 14
7 (7) Knives Out Lionsgate $3,188,785 -13% +250% 2,022 $1,577 $100,430,571 30
8 (8) Cats Universal $1,804,195 -15%   3,380 $534 $12,990,175 7
9 (9) Bombshell Lionsgate $1,593,496 -22% +10,241% 1,480 $1,077 $10,941,102 14
10 (10) Richard Jewell Warner Bros. $1,015,000 -28% +147% 2,502 $406 $13,054,186 14

 

2013 Thu (link)

  Hide contents
    Movie Distr Gross %YD %LW Thr Per
Thr 		Total
Gross 		D
- (-) The Hobbit: The Desolatio… Warner Bros. $10,523,771 +13% +109% 3,928 $2,679 $160,469,546 14
- (-) Anchorman 2: The Legend C… Paramount Pi… $7,363,835 +27% +44% 2,507 $2,937 $63,517,018 9
- (-) The Wolf of Wall Street Paramount Pi… $6,641,180 -27%   2,537 $2,618 $15,791,559 2
- (-) The Secret Life of Walter… 20th Century… $4,781,588 -39%   2,909 $1,644 $12,594,960 2
- (-) 47 Ronin Universal $3,670,485 -48%   2,689 $1,365 $10,702,220 2
- (-) The Hunger Games: Catchin… Lionsgate $3,039,832 +20% +123% 2,949 $1,031 $380,923,843 35
- (-) Tyler Perry's A Madea Chr… Lionsgate $2,229,608 -25% +145% 2,194 $1,016 $36,319,076 14
- (-) Grudge Match Warner Bros. $2,160,738 -45%   2,838 $761 $6,118,222 2
- (-) Walking with Dinosaurs 20th Century… $2,142,241 +24%   2,909 $736 $13,668,306 7
- (-) Justin Bieber’s Believe Open Road $1,012,500 -19%   1,037 $976 $2,262,500 2

 

I wonder why the-numbers.com doesn't show Frozen 1's gross on the 2013 chart. It had a 43.3% increase by the way.

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