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NEW YEAR WEEKDAYS THREAD: New Year Day Final Trend P 26. Happy New Year.

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10 hours ago, Jedi Jat said:

Here's to shittiest prediction I have seen in long time.

https://www.ign.com/articles/2019/12/30/2020-movies-box-office-predictions

 

  • 12 films over $250mn:hahaha:
  • Fast and Furious 9 $357mn 
  • Dune $470mn plus
  • Uncharted $270mn plus but Onward under $127mn.
  • Soul at 11 below Raya and Last Dragon
  • Ghostbuster over $225mn


Dune’s $476 million could be pretty close. Providing the 4 is taken off 

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Just now, cdsacken said:

Starwars does incorporate that family Christmas tradition. In March I fail to see how it would be replicated for legs. Interesting to think about.

 

Also would BVS or End Game have the same boost? Mystery of the box office.

Legs would have been shorter but OW high. 

If Avengers Endgame releases in December, it's OW will be like 290-300m but overall it will at 850-860m Domestic. 

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3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Overseas maybe. 

But Domestic, 

200*2.5=500m

Same as in Christmas. 

People make big deal about Christmas legs forgetting that Weekends are much heavier in other mnths. 

Christmas helps when the movie clicks thematically/tonally. A movie like Jumanji 2017 wouldn't have made it to 404.5 any other month even had it opened bigger. For every break-out like Jumanji there are tons of other ones unsuccessfully emulating it.

Edited by a2k
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4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

Starwars does incorporate that family Christmas tradition. In March I fail to see how it would be replicated for legs. Interesting to think about.

 

Also would BVS or End Game have the same boost? Mystery of the box office.

It’s a question I’ve asked for bit. I’ve always wondered how an MCU film would fair with holiday legs. 

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10 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Christmas opening weekend are always on low side. 

Aquaman would have opened 100m+ in Summer. 

Star wars Ep 7 300m+

Star wars Ep 8  250m+

Legs would have been shorter. In the wnd same run. 

The runs are not the same in the end. Star Wars Episode 8 probably would have done $550M versus the $620M that it did had it had a summer release date. I think you severely underestimate how much the holidays help movies and their total grosses. Yes opening weekends are dampened a bit but it’s all saved with tremendous legs. TLJ would have been lucky to get a 2.25 multiplier in the summer. 

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I think Disney should release Eternals in December. 

It will have more time in post production. 

 

Plus It is a perfect family movie as Eternals are themselves a family. 

 

It has potential to make 1.3b+ WW if released in December. 

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14 minutes ago, Nova said:

It’s a question I’ve asked for bit. I’ve always wondered how an MCU film would fair with holiday legs. 

We at least have 3 early November examples,

Thor2 2.41x

Thor3 2.57x // broke sequelitis curse despite 50% bigger ow

DS1 2.735x // non-sequel. same ow as Thor2

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December 2020 is pretty much free. 

There are less than 10% chance of Dune breaking out considering the material. 

 

WSS is just a Oscar bait from Steven Spielberg

 

Uncharted not happening. 

 

Eternals is just the perfect film for that release date. 

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1 minute ago, a2k said:

We at least have 3 pre-Thanksgiving November examples,

Thor2 2.41x

Thor3 2.57x // broke sequelitis curse despite 50% bigger ow

DS1 2.735x // non-sequel. same ow as Thor2

Actually they are 3 weekends before thanksgiving. 

If they were pre thanksgiving, there opening weekend would have  been lower and legs better. 

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6 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

I think Disney should release Eternals in December. 

It will have more time in post production. 

 

Plus It is a perfect family movie as Eternals are themselves a family. 

 

It has potential to make 1.3b+ WW if released in December. 

You're right - West Side Story and Coming 2 America seem to be the only legitimate contenders, alongside Dune (which could be something truly special if done correction, which I believe will be the case; more so with the ensemble cast and story).

 

That's why I feel Avatar 2 would have worked wonders in December 2020, as opposed to December 2021.

Edited by Bart Allen
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3 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

December 2020 is pretty much free. 

There are less than 10% chance of Dune breaking out considering the material. 

 

WSS is just a Oscar bait from Steven Spielberg

 

Uncharted not happening. 

 

Eternals is just the perfect film for that release date. 

Paramount has live-action/CGI Rugrats on 21st Jan 2021. They should pre-pone by a month.

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Just now, Bart Allen said:

You're right - West Side Story and Coming 2 America seem to be the only legitimate contenders, alongside Dune (which could be something truly special if done correction, which I believe will be the case; more so with the ensemble cast and story) 

Dune could be something very special and still flop. 

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7 minutes ago, a2k said:

Paramount has live-action/CGI Rugrats on 21st Jan 2021. They should pre-pone by a month.

There already is another live-action/CGI animated hybrid film releasing in December. More likely that Rugrats moves to Feb if Sonic works well for Paramount.

Edited by lorddemaxus
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8 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

There already is another live-action/CGI animated hybrid film releasing in December. More likely that Rugrats moves to Feb if Sonic works well for Paramount.

Rugrats got cancelled. Rumble took its spot.

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14 minutes ago, Madhuvan said:

Dune could be something very special and still flop. 

True true, more so with Denis' last film being the Blade Runner sequel but this is very different - almost a mesh of Game of Thrones (season 1-4) meets Star Wars.

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