Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - The Grudge $1.8M w/ an F Cinemascore LMAO

[redfirebird2008]

2 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Truth, course that was back when true daily grosses meant something and Iron Man FAILED to actually get the 100m OW 😉

 

No shit. I wish they would go back and add in Thursday grosses to the weekend number for films like Iron Man. It was a big deal when At World's End made $13M on Thursday and it was counted separate. Believe something similar happened with Matrix Reloaded. If I remember right, the studio wanted to count a $5M Wednesday preview as part of the Thursday opening day total. Box Office Mojo refused to let them get away with that.

 

Many years later, we now see absurd numbers on Thursday being counted as part of the Friday total. That was of course due to the midnight massacre with TDKR in 2012, but I felt like the studios exploited this situation with the really early shows on Thursday afternoon/evening.

 

Funny enough, you had some record-breaking opening weekends back in the day that were deflated by Thursday previews. I'm guessing none of these preview numbers were from 4 PM Thursday shows, which we see included as Friday gross nowadays. 

 

1989 - Batman (OW record excluding $2.21M on Thursday)

1992 - Batman Returns (OW record excluding $2.03M on Thursday)

1993 - Jurassic Park (OW record excluding $3.13M on Thursday)

1997 - JP2: Lost World (OW record excluding $2.57M on Thursday)

[IcarusReborn]

36 minutes ago, Ambrose1415 said:

And I’d say the opposite. Although I agree with your overall assessment that the ST was a general disappointment for Disney and LFL, I think a few members here are being fully hyperbolic in their belief that the brand is in trouble. 

 

The news of project luminous has already gotten some STC folks excited for the future. 

The brand is definitely in trouble. Why deny this? 

[LawrenceBrolivier]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

I’m sure interest in TROS was lower than it was for TLJ before a single review hit 

 

 

sure you don’t want to cater to everything fans want, but that doesn’t necessarily mean appealing to them is a bad thing. Take a look at Endgame 

The thing that most appeals to audiences and fans is being good, period.... the fact so many people just automatically consider those two things ("being good" and "appealing to fans") to be inherently separate should say something.... 

 

The whole reason any of these properties have fans is because they created them by being good movies... The Rise of Skywalker's interest was lower than The Last Jedi's, but not by much. It wasn't until it became very obvious the movie wasn't going to be good that the interest finally dropped to where the "fandom" had been (falsely) saying it was after Last Jedi and Solo. 

 

Fandom isn't anywhere near as important to box-office as people in a Fandom think it is. That's been one of the most consistent delusions OF Fandom over the past 20 years. Endgame's box-office is mostly due to the film being well-made and engaging and enabling the general audience (which outnumbers the fandom by a massive degree) to thoroughly enjoy it, not because it specifically "appealed" to its fandom. 

 

In fact, people don't like to remember this, but.... Marvel's biggest successes as a studio, both from a critical and financial perspective, only came when their version of a story group got disbanded, and fandom concerns were essentially ignored. 

Edited January 5, 2020 by LawrenceBrolivier

[sfran43]

 

[DisposedData]

TRoS will be the first mainline Star Wars film to miss the yearly top 5. I think that's the best indicator to objectively illustrate the decline of the franchise. 

 

Rather than undercutting how disappointing its run has been so far with the whole "it still crossed a billion so it's still a success" nonsense.

[Knights of Ren]

2 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

TRoS will be the first mainline Star Wars film to miss the yearly top 5. I think that's the best indicator to objectively illustrate the decline of the franchise. 

 

Rather than undercutting how disappointing its run has been so far with the whole "it still crossed a billion so it's still a success" nonsense.

Eh, I see what your saying but 2019 was a powerhouse.  If TROS comes out in 2020 its Top 5 easily. 

[redfirebird2008]

15 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

Endgame's box-office is mostly due to the film being well-made and engaging and enabling the general audience (which outnumbers the fandom by a massive degree) to thoroughly enjoy it, not because it specifically "appealed" to its fandom. 

 

Hype was the primary reason for Endgame's gross. The film is no better than a bunch of other MCU films. They make pretty damn good movies in general. 20 of them built up to the hype for Endgame. It's not like the film opened small and had insane legs. It was the other way around. They created a lot of goodwill with the earlier movies and it fueled the insane opening for the finale. 

[DisposedData]

12 minutes ago, Knights of Ren said:

Eh, I see what your saying but 2019 was a powerhouse.  If TROS comes out in 2020 its Top 5 easily. 

I think its premature to say that. I think 2020 is going to surprise a lot of people with how well certain films are going to do.

 

As for this year and TRoS, Star Wars should have been the powerhouse. It should have been competing with the likes of Frozen II, the non Avenger Marvel films, and TLK, not sitting with a Rated R Joker and a live action Aladdin that was the most mismanaged Disney film of the year.

Edited January 5, 2020 by DisposedData

[Legion Again]

15 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

TRoS will be the first mainline Star Wars film to miss the yearly top 5. I think that's the best indicator to objectively illustrate the decline of the franchise. 

 

Rather than undercutting how disappointing its run has been so far with the whole "it still crossed a billion so it's still a success" nonsense.

The 2019 yearly charts are insano bonkers, so I feel this is a bit disingenuous to look at.   
 

Now it will miss the all-time WW top 25, maybe even top 30 or 35. Unprecedented for a SW episode, and even much worse than RO (made the top 20). 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Hype was the primary reason for Endgame's gross. The film is no better than a bunch of other MCU films. They make pretty damn good movies in general. 20 of them built up to the hype for Endgame. It's not like the film opened small and had insane legs. It was the other way around. They created a lot of goodwill with the earlier movies and it fueled the insane opening for the finale. 

They built the brand and audience engagement and AIW raised anticipation but it's level of success wasn't all hype.  There's only one MCU movie better reviewed than AEG and that's BP - and only among the RT Top critics.   AEG domestically after an all time o/w that crushed records still made another $501m (more than BP or The Avengers or any film not named TFA or Avatar).  For a lot of people it was immensely satisfying well made film that more than fulfilled the hype.

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by TalismanRing

[JohnnyGossamer]

6 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

I think its premature to say that. I think 2020 is going to surprise a lot of people with how well certain films are going to do.

 

As for this year and TRoS, Star Wars should have been the powerhouse. It should have been competing with the likes of Frozen II and TLK, not sitting with a Rated R Joker and a live action Aladdin that was the most mismanaged Disney film of the year.

While I agree, Joker and Aladdin were HUGE success stories given what was expected just before each released. 

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

They built the brand and audience engagement and AIW left  anticipation but it's level of sucess wasn't all hype.  There's only one MCU movie better reviewed than AEG and that's BP - and only among the RT Top critics.   AEG domestically after an all time o/w that crushed records still made another $501m (more than BP or The Avengers or any film not named TFA or Avatar).  For a lot of people it was immensely satisfying well made film that more than fulfilled the hype.

 

When you open that big, you're gonna finish with an enormous total regardless. I remember after the OW, there was a lot of discussion about it breaking TFA's total of $937M. The WOM was pretty good, but I don't think the WOM was as strong as say Avengers (2012). I believe if it did have that kind of WOM, it would have broken TFA's record. 

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

When you open that big, you're gonna finish with an enormous total regardless. I remember after the OW, there was a lot of discussion about it breaking TFA's total of $937M. The WOM was pretty good, but I don't think the WOM was as strong as say Avengers (2012). I believe if it did have that kind of WOM, it would have broken TFA's record. 

It doesn't really work that way.  $357m in o/w business b/c people didn't want to be spoiled doesn't mean doing another $501m worth of business is less impressive or denotes lesser WOM.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

It doesn't really work that way.  $357m in o/w business b/c people didn't want to be spoiled doesn't mean doing another $501m worth of business is less impressive or denotes lesser WOM.

 

We'll just have to agree to disagree. I stand by my statement about the hype for it. Do you think it's 4.8x better than Iron Man? I don't think so. One just had a shitload more hype around the world, thanks in part to a film like Iron Man creating really good buzz over the previous 10 years. 

[Royce]

3 hours ago, KP1025 said:

 

So is the Lion King (2019) an animated film or not? It doesn't seem like there is a consensus on the matter. 

 

Disney themselves don't consider it to be animated...

 

Quote

Though Jon Favreau’s remake of “The Lion King” is entirely computer generated and earned $1.65 billion in 2019, Disney considers it a live-action reboot rather than an animated flick. Either way, the benchmark only solidifies Disney’s place as the preeminent force on all things animation — the studio is now responsible for the top three biggest cartooned movie of all time.

 

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/frozen-2-biggest-animated-movie-ever-disney-box-office-1203456758/

 

Most publications are now considering F2 to be the highest animated grosser

 

And it deserves that record way more than TLK 2019

[stealthyfrog]

2 minutes ago, Royce said:

 

Disney themselves don't consider it to be animated...

 

 

https://variety.com/2020/film/box-office/frozen-2-biggest-animated-movie-ever-disney-box-office-1203456758/

 

Most publications are now considering F2 to be the highest animated grosser

 

And it deserves that record way more than TLK 2019

TLK 2019 is animated despite Disney pretending it is "live-action"

 

But its being considered live-action means that quality wins so whatever

[Legion Again]

As for “1.5B is the new 1B” vs “2B is the new 1B” I actually lean more toward 1.5B for now. Of course if you just look at how many movies are over the threshold, the argument for 2B is very simple — we have 5 2B movies right now, vs 5 1B movies at the beginning of the decade. 
 

 

but, what I feel that misses, is that the 2B performances right now (Endgame, Avatar, Titanic, TFA, IW) are more aberrant than the 1B performances then (Avatar, Titanic, ROTK, DMC, TDK). What I mean is, look at how many movies are close to the threshold:

within 95% of 1B, Jan 2010: 7 movies (+2 vs over threshold)

within 95% of 2B, Jan 2020: 5 movies (+0)

within 90% of 1B 2010: 13 movies (+8) 

within 90% of 2B 2020: 5 movies (+0)

within 85% of 1B 2010: 19 movies (+14)

within 85% of 2B 2020: 5 movies (+0)   
 

The prevalence of movies decent close to 1B at the turn of the last decade foreshadowed that while an extremely impressive and rare league of its own, it was also a reasonable goal for future blockbusters — take a strong-but-not-crazy blockbuster performance (Say, top 20 WW), power it up by 20% and boom, you were at 1B. Nowadays if you look at a performance good enough to hit the top 20 and power it up by 20%, you get... 1.456B, not remotely close to 2B. The top 5 has become way more separately from the next dozen.      
 

So, while 1.5B currently has 9 movies over the threshold vs only 5 for 1B last decade, looking at the numbers for nearby movies:

within 95% — 10 now (counting F2) vs 7 in 2010

within 90% — 11 now (counting F2) vs 13 in 2010

within 85% — 16 now (counting F1) vs 19 in 2010  

 

I think 1.5B is a more measured, attainable, actually analogous choice for the “1B of the 2020s.”

Spoiler

1	Titanic	Par.	$1,842.9	$600.8	32.6%	$1,242.1	67.4%	1997
2	Avatar	Fox	$1,836.1	$552.8	30.1%	$1,283.3	69.9%	2009
3	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,119.1	$377.0	33.7%	$742.1	66.3%	2003
4	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$1,066.2	$423.3	39.7%	$642.9	60.3%	2006
5	The Dark Knight	WB	$1,001.9	$533.3	53.2%	$468.6	46.8%	2008
6	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$974.7	$317.6	32.6%	$657.2	67.4%	2001
7	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$961.0	$309.4	32.2%	$651.6	67.8%	2007
8	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$938.2	$292.0	31.1%	$646.2	68.9%	2007
9	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.0	$302.0	32.3%	$632.0	67.7%	2009
10	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$925.3	$341.8	36.9%	$583.5	63.1%	2002^
Get the latest box office news! Click here for a FREE subscription to Box Office Mojo...
11	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$924.3	$431.1	46.6%	$493.2	53.4%	1999
12	Shrek 2	DW	$919.8	$441.2	48.0%	$478.6	52.0%	2004
13	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$914.7	$357.1	39.0%	$557.6	61.0%	1993
14	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$895.9	$290.0	32.4%	$605.9	67.6%	2005
15	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$890.9	$336.5	37.8%	$554.3	62.2%	2007
16	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	Fox	$884.5	$196.6	22.2%	$687.9	77.8%	2009
17	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$878.6	$262.0	29.8%	$616.7	70.2%	2002
18	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$870.8	$314.8	36.1%	$556.0	63.9%	2001^
19	Finding Nemo	BV	$864.6	$339.7	39.3%	$524.9	60.7%	2003
20	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005

 

Edited January 5, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[John Marston]

It depends k the movie. Joker passing 1 billion is still An  amazing achievement while if something like Endgame made only 1 billion that would be a flat out disaster 

[reddevil19]

9 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

As for “1.5B is the new 1B” vs “2B is the new 1B” I actually lean more toward 1.5B for now. Of course if you just look at how many movies are over the threshold, the argument for 2B is very simple — we have 5 2B movies right now, vs 5 1B movies at the beginning of the decade. 
 

 

but, what I feel that misses, is that the 2B performances right now (Endgame, Avatar, Titanic, TFA, IW) are more aberrant than the 1B performances then (Avatar, Titanic, ROTK, DMC, TDK). What I mean is, look at how many movies are close to the threshold:

within 95% of 1B, Jan 2010: 7 movies (+2 vs over threshold)

within 95% of 2B, Jan 2020: 5 movies (+0)

within 90% of 1B 2010: 13 movies (+8) 

within 90% of 2B 2020: 5 movies (+0)

within 85% of 1B 2010: 19 movies (+14)

within 85% of 2B 2020: 5 movies (+0)   
 

The prevalence of movies decent close to 1B at the turn of the last decade foreshadowed that while an extremely impressive and rare league of its own, it was also a reasonable goal for future blockbusters — take a strong-but-not-crazy blockbuster performance (Say, top 20 WW), power it up by 20% and boom, you were at 1B. Nowadays if you look at a performance good enough to hit the top 20 and power it up by 20%, you get... 1.456B, not remotely close to 2B. The top 5 has become way more separately from the next dozen.      
 

So, while 1.5B currently has 9 movies over the threshold vs only 5 for 1B last decade, looking at the numbers for nearby movies:

within 95% — 10 now (counting F2) vs 7 in 2010

within 90% — 11 now (counting F2) vs 13 in 2010

within 85% — 16 now (counting F1) vs 19 in 2010  

 

I think 1.5B is a more measured, attainable, actually analogous choice for the “1B of the 2020s.”

  Hide contents

1	Titanic	Par.	$1,842.9	$600.8	32.6%	$1,242.1	67.4%	1997
2	Avatar	Fox	$1,836.1	$552.8	30.1%	$1,283.3	69.9%	2009
3	The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King	NL	$1,119.1	$377.0	33.7%	$742.1	66.3%	2003
4	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest	BV	$1,066.2	$423.3	39.7%	$642.9	60.3%	2006
5	The Dark Knight	WB	$1,001.9	$533.3	53.2%	$468.6	46.8%	2008
6	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer's Stone	WB	$974.7	$317.6	32.6%	$657.2	67.4%	2001
7	Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End	BV	$961.0	$309.4	32.2%	$651.6	67.8%	2007
8	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	WB	$938.2	$292.0	31.1%	$646.2	68.9%	2007
9	Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince	WB	$934.0	$302.0	32.3%	$632.0	67.7%	2009
10	The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers	NL	$925.3	$341.8	36.9%	$583.5	63.1%	2002^
Get the latest box office news! Click here for a FREE subscription to Box Office Mojo...
11	Star Wars: Episode I - The Phantom Menace	Fox	$924.3	$431.1	46.6%	$493.2	53.4%	1999
12	Shrek 2	DW	$919.8	$441.2	48.0%	$478.6	52.0%	2004
13	Jurassic Park	Uni.	$914.7	$357.1	39.0%	$557.6	61.0%	1993
14	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	WB	$895.9	$290.0	32.4%	$605.9	67.6%	2005
15	Spider-Man 3	Sony	$890.9	$336.5	37.8%	$554.3	62.2%	2007
16	Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs	Fox	$884.5	$196.6	22.2%	$687.9	77.8%	2009
17	Harry Potter and the Chamber of Secrets	WB	$878.6	$262.0	29.8%	$616.7	70.2%	2002
18	The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring	NL	$870.8	$314.8	36.1%	$556.0	63.9%	2001^
19	Finding Nemo	BV	$864.6	$339.7	39.3%	$524.9	60.7%	2003
20	Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith	Fox	$848.8	$380.3	44.8%	$468.5	55.2%	2005

 

Very well explained and completely agree with you - over half the billion club is under 1.15B, and the difference between #5, which is the lowest over 2B and #6 is 400 million...

I think you make an excellent point.

[reddevil19]

Just now, John Marston said:

It depends k the movie. Joker passing 1 billion is still An  amazing achievement while if something like Endgame made only 1 billion that would be a flat out disaster 

Well, of course, expectations are always a factor, but in a vacuum, excluding the major outliers, 1.5B is probably the mark of the "uber-blockbuster WW phenom" in the current climate.