Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - The Grudge $1.8M w/ an F Cinemascore LMAO

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, of course, expectations are always a factor, but in a vacuum, excluding the major outliers, 1.5B is probably the mark of the "uber-blockbuster WW phenom" in the current climate.

 

With Skywalker likely finishing about $400M short of that $1.5B mark, it's definitely not anything to brag about for Disney...especially when they spent about $300M on production cost alone. 

[Avatree]

No one was expecting SW9 to get to that level, so it's hardly a disappointment for Disney.

[reddevil19]

2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

With Skywalker likely finishing about $400M short of that $1.5B mark, it's definitely not anything to brag about for Disney...especially when they spent about $300M on production cost alone. 

Indeed. Given its reduced appeal overseas, that was always a tough ask, tbf. Its domestic decrease from TLJ has to be the most disappointing aspect, though. If there was a chance for better retention, you'd have thought it would be domestically.

Ah, well... I think we're all beating a dead horse now, so let's just see what else Disney has in store for SW.

[expensiveho]

1 hour ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

The thing that most appeals to audiences and fans is being good, period.... the fact so many people just automatically consider those two things ("being good" and "appealing to fans") to be inherently separate should say something.... 

 

The whole reason any of these properties have fans is because they created them by being good movies... The Rise of Skywalker's interest was lower than The Last Jedi's, but not by much. It wasn't until it became very obvious the movie wasn't going to be good that the interest finally dropped to where the "fandom" had been (falsely) saying it was after Last Jedi and Solo. 

 

Fandom isn't anywhere near as important to box-office as people in a Fandom think it is. That's been one of the most consistent delusions OF Fandom over the past 20 years. Endgame's box-office is mostly due to the film being well-made and engaging and enabling the general audience (which outnumbers the fandom by a massive degree) to thoroughly enjoy it, not because it specifically "appealed" to its fandom. 

 

In fact, people don't like to remember this, but.... Marvel's biggest successes as a studio, both from a critical and financial perspective, only came when their version of a story group got disbanded, and fandom concerns were essentially ignored. 

I disagree with this. It is true that most people watching the movies aren't "fans"(maybe casual fans, something they don't care about that much but would still choose it over something they're less familiar with) but we live in an era where people find everything online.

 

And guess who are the ones discussing SW (or any other brand) non-stop? Fans are the ones that rush to find out anything before everyone else. So if they go to a Thursday preview (that's not including other markets opening earlier) and dont like what they see, a considerable size of the audience that's on the fence will read about that the same night.

 

That's not even counting pre-release negativity about bad trailers, bad designs, troubled productions, etc. It's harder for the studios to spin things now considering everyone has an opinion and a platform.

[redfirebird2008]

1 minute ago, reddevil19 said:

Indeed. Given its reduced appeal overseas, that was always a tough ask, tbf. Its domestic decrease from TLJ has to be the most disappointing aspect, though. If there was a chance for better retention, you'd have thought it would be domestically.

Ah, well... I think we're all beating a dead horse now, so let's just see what else Disney has in store for SW.

 

Even though he has delivered 99% moronic analysis for this film's run, I do agree with Scott Mendelson's idea that Skywalker should have been released sometime in 2020. Disney already had a large number of $1B grossers in 2019. They would be able to put a much more positive spin on this film's performance if it was released in 2020 when they don't have the same group of large-grossing films compared to 2019. 

[stealthyfrog]

15 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

Well, of course, expectations are always a factor, but in a vacuum, excluding the major outliers, 1.5B is probably the mark of the "uber-blockbuster WW phenom" in the current climate.

Yeah, pretty much every franchise can be thrilled with 1.5B

 

Even Avatar

[reddevil19]

Just now, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Even though he has delivered 99% moronic analysis for this film's run, I do agree with Scott Mendelson's idea that Skywalker should have been released sometime in 2020. Disney already had a large number of $1B grossers in 2019. They would be able to put a much more positive spin on this film's performance if it was released in 2020 when they don't have the same group of large-grossing films compared to 2019. 

God knows it could've done with an extra year dedicated to coming up with a good script... 

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, reddevil19 said:

God knows it could've done with an extra year dedicated to coming up with a good script... 

 

Plus they stole attention from Frozen 2's strong run. Would have been better publicity for them to let Frozen 2 have the stage right now. Give Skywalker more time for production, maybe deliver a better movie and better WOM. Deliver stronger box office result and it would be a lot more impressive in 2020 compared to being lumped in with a big group of huge Disney performers in 2019. 

[reddevil19]

Just now, stealthyfrog said:

Yeah, pretty much every franchise can be thrilled with 1.5B

 

Even Avatar

As much as I don't care about the movies themselves, watching the sequels' performance at the box office is going to be very interesting. It's not like the first one was a hugely anticipated project, so lack of insane franchise buzz means fuck all. But will it have the kind of pull with audiences that the first had? Shit, maybe it does a billion in China alone, or maybe Western markets shrug their shoulders at it. I really can see anything between 1 and 4 billion for that damn thing, so it'll be interesting one way or another. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

47 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

When you open that big, you're gonna finish with an enormous total regardless. I remember after the OW, there was a lot of discussion about it breaking TFA's total of $937M. The WOM was pretty good, but I don't think the WOM was as strong as say Avengers (2012). I believe if it did have that kind of WOM, it would have broken TFA's record. 

From my experience and looking at online scores at least WOM was better than TA but TA didn't have any kind of comparable rush factor. TA was also an introduction to the MCU for many people while EG was the conclusion and so wouldn't draw non fans in the same way. DH2 faced the second issue as well.

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

In fact, people don't like to remember this, but.... Marvel's biggest successes as a studio, both from a critical and financial perspective, only came when their version of a story group got disbanded, and fandom concerns were essentially ignored. 

I agree with your main point (GA appeal is way more important than appeal for hardcore fans) but this part is just ass backwards. Their crazy successful phase 3 coincides with the disbandment of the creative committee, yes. That is no coincidence, I agree.
 

But the creative committee’s dissolution was a shift in power towards the really entrenched nerds at marvel, not away from them, so if anything the success that came from doing away with it undermines rather than reinforces your (still correct) broader point.

Edited January 5, 2020 by Arendelle Legion

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, stealthyfrog said:

Yeah, pretty much every franchise can be thrilled with 1.5B

 

Even Avatar

I would be disappointed if the next Avengers (if one exists) did “just” 1.5B, but that’s the only one I can think of. 1.5B will be missing the top 10 by then, and Avengers has turned in performances hitting 3rd, 5th, 4th, 1st place WW all recently enough to be still meaningful comparisons.

[redfirebird2008]

6 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:

As much as I don't care about the movies themselves, watching the sequels' performance at the box office is going to be very interesting. It's not like the first one was a hugely anticipated project, so lack of insane franchise buzz means fuck all. But will it have the kind of pull with audiences that the first had? Shit, maybe it does a billion in China alone, or maybe Western markets shrug their shoulders at it. I really can see anything between 1 and 4 billion for that damn thing, so it'll be interesting one way or another. 

 

China is gonna be very interesting to watch. Adjusting the original movie for the Chinese market expansion over the last 10 years, that movie would have made close to $1B by current standards. That will be wild if the sequel grossed in that neighborhood for China but has a massive decline in the West. Could probably still get to about $1.8B in this situation, lol

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

Plus they stole attention from Frozen 2's strong run. Would have been better publicity for them to let Frozen 2 have the stage right now. Give Skywalker more time for production, maybe deliver a better movie and better WOM. Deliver stronger box office result and it would be a lot more impressive in 2020 compared to being lumped in with a big group of huge Disney performers in 2019. 

Also gives more time for D+ SW to build goodwill, and takes advantage of the weak Dec 2020 lineup on the best Dec calendar config.

[AdrianL]

I think the conversation around billion dollar pictures will be much more dire this time next year when we get less than 5 billion dollar pictures for 2020. 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

Glad Frozen 2 is now considered officially as the Highest Grossing Animated Film Worldwide. Though let's be honest The Lion King by definition is an animated film. 

Hopefully it'll be a mute point when Frozen 3 comes out in like 2025.

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Glad Frozen 2 is now considered officially as the Highest Grossing Animated Film Worldwide. Though let's be honest The Lion King by definition is an animated film. 

Hopefully it'll be a mute point when Frozen 3 comes out in like 2025.

Please no. Do 2024 so all the holiday dates line up perfectly with F1&F2 again  

[LawrenceBrolivier]

21 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I agree with your main point (GA appeal is way more important than appeal for hardcore fans) but this part is just ass backwards. Their crazy successful phase 3 coincides with the disbandment of the creative committee, yes. That is no coincidence, I agree.
 

But the creative committee’s dissolution was a shift in power towards the really entrenched nerds at marvel, not away from them, so if anything the success that came from doing away with it undermines rather than reinforces your (still correct) broader point.

 

"The Entrenched Nerds" at Marvel aren't really doing anything that either adheres to, or nods to, anything resembling "canon" the way everyone understands it.... Marvel movies are always most concerned with being good movies first, and will discard anything from the "canon" such as it is, that doesn't fit. It's why Marvel movies have almost nothing to do with the comics they're "based" on outside of the general concept of a character, and the vague outline of a story. Everything else gets tossed. 

The creative committee getting tossed was good because it was that creative committee that was constantly vetoing cool movie ideas based on the notion that "it wouldn't work that way in the comics." and "Character X doesn't behave that way in my stories..." The way that creative committee worked is almost exactly the same way the "story group" works now at Lucasfilm, and as much as those people do a very hard, and very thankless job.... the truth is that focusing THAT strongly on "canon" and the concerns of a tiny fandom that cares that much about canon is limiting the studio's potential. 

 

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, Darth Lehnsherr said:

Glad Frozen 2 is now considered officially as the Highest Grossing Animated Film Worldwide. Though let's be honest The Lion King by definition is an animated film. 

Hopefully it'll be a mute point when Frozen 3 comes out in like 2025.

 

Lion King feels like a gray area to me. While it is entirely animated, the incredibly realistic visuals make it more similar to live-action films in style (especially the comparable Jungle Book). For most people around the world, animated films = cartoon aesthetics. 

[Legion Again]

2 minutes ago, LawrenceBrolivier said:

 

"The Entrenched Nerds" at Marvel aren't really doing anything that either adheres to, or nods to, anything resembling "canon" the way everyone understands it.... Marvel movies are always most concerned with being good movies first, and will discard anything from the "canon" such as it is, that doesn't fit. It's why Marvel movies have almost nothing to do with the comics they're "based" on outside of the general concept of a character, and the vague outline of a story. Everything else gets tossed. 

The creative committee getting tossed was good because it was that creative committee that was constantly vetoing cool movie ideas based on the notion that "it wouldn't work that way in the comics." and "Character X doesn't behave that way in my stories..." The way that creative committee worked is almost exactly the same way the "story group" works now at Lucasfilm, and as much as those people do a very hard, and very thankless job.... the truth is that focusing THAT strongly on "canon" and the concerns of a tiny fandom that cares that much about canon is limiting the studio's potential. 

 

I think they cater to the fandom more post-CC than in the CC era. They just understand how to do it better. It’s at least gray enough that I don’t think it makes a good example for your position.