Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - 1917 $3.25M | Like a Boss $1M | Just Mercy $800K | Underwater $500K

[a2k]

4x this weekend more takes F2 to 482 dom. MLK weekend should be strong and Disney could expand with a sing-along version.

5x gives 488. Safe to say 500 is dead.

 

[Ithil]

24 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

Alarming drop for Little Women. It's gonna need to rectify next week-end otherwise 100M is gone. And since there's a pretty strong possibility that it gets snubbed at the Oscars (save for Ronan)...

Everything dropped heavier this weekend, the holidays are over.

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, a2k said:

4x this weekend more takes F2 to 482 dom. MLK weekend should be strong and Disney could expand with a sing-along version.

5x gives 488. Safe to say 500 is dead.

 

Getting a sing a long rerelease 

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Looking at the other movies in the top 10 it's not going to be that huge a hit.  It's already lost a ton of screens just not the guaranteed largest ones.  Since it's not filling them moving to the 3rd or 4th biggest screen in most multiplexes won't make that significant a difference.

TLJ lost 1140 theaters 5th weekend and then another 640 the following weekend.

 

Now, TLJ had a much higher 4th weekend BO heading into that 5th weekend (but it's also inflated by the last dregs of holiday)...

 

So, if you think the holiday offsets the extra $8.7M difference in 4th weekend BO, then the minimum theater drop should be TLJ's...but I expect a larger drop...I said from the open I expected a 2000+ theater drop, and maybe this weekend's slight leveling off and the low presales so far for Doolittle mitigate that a little, but no way will it be less than TLJ's drop next weekend...

[John Marston]

Disney has some kind of four week contract for screens for TROS. It’s why 1917’s IMAX release  isn’t until the 24th

[Eric Atreides]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

Disney has some kind of four week contract for screens for TROS. It’s why 1917’s IMAX release  isn’t until the 24th

1917’s playing in IMAX tho

[John Marston]

2 minutes ago, Eric Dolittle said:

1917’s playing in IMAX tho

Not here at least. TROS still has all okay screens here. I heard it’s the same mostly everywhere else 

[narniadis]

@Arendelle Legion thanks, 13.7 makes much more sense then for their expectation. Very good indeed. 

[Europe is my playground]

12 minutes ago, Ithil said:

Everything dropped heavier this weekend, the holidays are over.

Everybody had LW higher this week-end. Even post-holiday, mediocre drop. we'll see next week if this was just a false alarm.

[sfran43]

 

[George Parr]

21 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I hate Disney contract. It saves the face of movies whose face shouldn't be saved. Can't freakin wait for TROS collapse. It had poor holds anyway but I want worse. 

I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. People still need to go and see the movie, they don't just appear at a theater and get forced to watch a specific movie that they don't get to choose.

 

There might be a very small benefit due to having more expensive shows available, but that is pretty negligible compared to the gross as a whole.

[TalismanRing]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

TLJ lost 1140 theaters 5th weekend and then another 640 the following weekend.

 

Now, TLJ had a much higher 4th weekend BO heading into that 5th weekend (but it's also inflated by the last dregs of holiday)...

 

So, if you think the holiday offsets the extra $8.7M difference in 4th weekend BO, then the minimum theater drop should be TLJ's...but I expect a larger drop...I said from the open I expected a 2000+ theater drop, and maybe this weekend's slight leveling off and the low presales so far for Doolittle mitigate that a little, but no way will it be less than TLJ's drop next weekend...

Just look at the movies underneath it.    You think Jumanji's going to lose near 2,000 theaters or even 1,500 when they have around the same PTA?    When there are movies like The Grudge?  Or even Bombshell or Uncut Gems. or Frozen & Spies In Disguise?  Or showings or extra screens from the new openers except for 1917?

[sfran43]

 

[narniadis]

Everyone freaking out about films drops this weekend (across the board) must have never paid attention to post holiday box office. 4 new releases/ wide expansions take up screens and showtimes and thereby a shuffle happens. Nothing abnormal or poor all the demographics had something to eat at them and kids films are doing normal for the time of year. 

 

As for next weekend, yes star wars will lose a bunch of theaters, but expecting it to pull a CATS and drop 2000 or more is letting bias affect your thinking. 1200-1300 sure. More than that will be highly unlikely, especially as there are films making less beneath it. 

[narniadis]

1 minute ago, George Parr said:

I don't think it makes much of a difference at all. People still need to go and see the movie, they don't just appear at a theater and get forced to watch a specific movie that they don't get to choose.

 

There might be a very small benefit due to having more expensive shows available, but that is pretty negligible compared to the gross as a whole.

Yup, it would be one thing if it was a bomb like CATS that had the 4 week contract. There is an anti-disney / star wars feeling that keeps people from being logical about this and made worse by the feelings some have about the current film. Its not like the rest of the films in play would have goosed their numbers in a measurable way and SW would still have sold the same tickets 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

[Ambrose1415]

28 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

I hate Disney contract. It saves the face of movies whose face shouldn't be saved. Can't freakin wait for TROS collapse. It had poor holds anyway but I want worse. 

Curious as to why you need to say the same thing over and over for weeks. 

 

The movie isn’t doing well, just relax dude.

[sfran43]

 

[redfirebird2008]

41 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

So what's TROS final number going to be, 520M-ish? When is it gonna lose screens/theaters? 

 

510-520, so I'll go with 515. 

[TwoMisfits]

19 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Just look at the movies underneath it.    You think Jumanji's going to lose near 2,000 theaters or even 1,500 when they have around the same PTA?    When there are movies like The Grudge?  Or even Bombshell or Uncut Gems. or Frozen & Spies In Disguise?  Or showings or extra screens from the new openers except for 1917?

We are talking TROS theater drop, not Jumanji's...Jumanji will stay over TROS probably at every theater it hasn't already been dropped from...

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Yup, it would be one thing if it was a bomb like CATS that had the 4 week contract. There is an anti-disney / star wars feeling that keeps people from being logical about this and made worse by the feelings some have about the current film. Its not like the rest of the films in play would have goosed their numbers in a measurable way and SW would still have sold the same tickets 🤷‍♂️🤦‍♂️

1917 might have been helped getting biggest size screens this weekend for prime Thursday/Friday/Saturday showings...seems many folks were reporting sell out 12-24 hours before those showings, so seats were left on the table this weekend...

Edited January 12, 2020 by TwoMisfits