Weekend Thread: Thursday Night Preview - 1917 $3.25M | Like a Boss $1M | Just Mercy $800K | Underwater $500K

[a2k]

22.6 os weekend, 14 dom weekend = 36.6 ww weekend for JUM2.

Is on 671 ww. 35 more dom and 50 more os will give 755+ ww.

 

edit: brazil's remaining os @cdsacken reminds me.

Edited January 12, 2020 by a2k

[Krissykins]

Just noticed that Just Mercy is falling 6% less than any other film on Sunday, only film estimated in the 20%’s. 
 

Makes me think it’s being overestimated for the $10m mark. 

[TalismanRing]

8 minutes ago, Cappoedameron said:

Who could have predicted 5 years ago that the finale of the Skywalker Saga would struggle to cross the billion dollar mark, and no Bob Iger this is not franchise fatigue.

Passing $1B by $60m+ is not struggling. 

 

5 years ago would have been 11 months before TFA opened and made an enormously surprising $2B.    So $1B for the third wouldn't have been too far from expectations - 5 years ago.

[TalismanRing]

14 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Just noticed that Just Mercy is falling 6% less than any other film on Sunday, only film estimated in the 20%’s. 
 

Makes me think it’s being overestimated for the $10m mark. 

Just a bit

 

Selma dropped -39.6% on Sunday on the same calendar w/e (also it's wide opening)

 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, Europe is my playground said:

Alarming drop for Little Women. It's gonna need to rectify next week-end otherwise 100M is gone. And since there's a pretty strong possibility that it gets snubbed at the Oscars (save for Ronan)...

This is objectively incorrect. It fell a bit more than expected but it’s only 4m off Wolf of Wall Street in current timeframe (78-74m). Only needs like 26m for 100m. Wolf grossed 38m from now to close. Little Women should do like 30-34. The barrage of new releases set it back some but it should stabilize during weekday 

 

It made PGA which is most important Oscar precursor which means it has a good shot at BP

[DisposedData]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

Passing $1B by $60m+ is not struggling. 

 

5 years ago would have been 11 months before TFA opened and made an enormously surprising $2B.    So $1B for the third wouldn't have been too far from expectations - 5 years ago.

That's some sick revisionist history you have there. Expectations were pretty damn high for TFA.

Edited January 12, 2020 by DisposedData

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

5 years ago would have been 11 months before TFA opened and made an enormously surprising $2B.    So $1B for the third wouldn't have been too far from expectations - 5 years ago.

I wasn’t following BO back then, but I just don’t get why 2B was so “enormously surprising” when looking at how TPM did. And like, isn’t that far and away the obvious comparison for TFA?      

 

[cdsacken]

Frozen 2 on rewatch awesome much better replay value than original, imo of course. Theater was 75% full. Great movie, show yourself was even more emotional second go around. Scene where sisters see each other after after the mist is cleared is very emotional as well. Damn that movie just kills it.

[cdsacken]

1 minute ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I wasn’t following BO back then, but I just don’t get why 2B was so “enormously surprising” when looking at how TPM did. And like, isn’t that far and away the obvious comparison for TFA?      

 

True over 800+ adjusted domestic

 

1 hour ago, a2k said:

22.6 os weekend, 14 dom weekend = 36.6 ww weekend for JUM2.

Is on 671 ww. 35-40 more dom and 50-60 more os will give ~755-770 ww.

Brazil is yet to open so 25 million likely there.

[TalismanRing]

12 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

That's some sick revisionist history you have there. Expectations were pretty damn high for TFA.

They were high, but not near $2b high.  

 

From April 2019.  Over 60 posters - only 5 thought it would do more than $650 domestic

 

 

O/S - in January guesses for O/S were $600-800m - most thinking WW would be around $1.2b-1.4b

 

 

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

O/S - in January guesses for O/S were $600-800m - most thinking WW would be around $1.2b-1.4b

Had TFA done 1400 ww, then same drop as TPM (924 1st release) to Sith (850) would have given TROS 1288. 

[Avatree]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Not much but it might be the only Fox proper film that won't bring in a loss except for the religious film Breakthrough. Searchlight had Ready or Not and JoJo

 

not sure if it will turn profit, it's barely doubled its budget, right?

[Darth Lehnsherr]

27 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

I wasn’t following BO back then, but I just don’t get why 2B was so “enormously surprising” when looking at how TPM did. And like, isn’t that far and away the obvious comparison for TFA?      

 

People were pretty cautious with their predictions of TFA. Weren't too sure if it was gonna be as big of an event as TPM though that started to change as we got closer to release date. The feeling was Ultron was gonna win the year.

[Avatree]

41 minutes ago, DisposedData said:

That's some sick revisionist history you have there. Expectations were pretty damn high for TFA.

wrong. look at the club linked above and this one too. it really wasn't expected to do as well as it did. Until a few days before release where it became pretty clear it was going to break the OW record - before that, not many people had pegged it at doing the crazy numbers it did. TFA's performance really can't be overstated.

 

 

[Europe is my playground]

2 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

This is objectively incorrect. It fell a bit more than expected but it’s only 4m off Wolf of Wall Street in current timeframe (78-74m). Only needs like 26m for 100m. Wolf grossed 38m from now to close. Little Women should do like 30-34. The barrage of new releases set it back some but it should stabilize during weekday 

 

It made PGA which is most important Oscar precursor which means it has a good shot at BP

Not according to Hollywood Reporter, although they could be wrong of course. Gold Derby has it at number 8, so it could depend on how many movies they put in the category this year. 

And sorry, but it is objectively correct that if the film doesn't rectify next week-end, and drops another 40%+, 100M is gone. That's all I was saying.

[Europe is my playground]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Passing $1B by $60m+ is not struggling. 

 

5 years ago would have been 11 months before TFA opened and made an enormously surprising $2B.    So $1B for the third wouldn't have been too far from expectations - 5 years ago.

There are still people minimizing the blow... Dude, the trilogy lost HALF its audience between 1st and 3rd film: It's BAD, and the sign that Star Wars failed to deliver (for whatever reasons) the ways other franchises (Potter, LOTR...) managed to do.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

4 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

Not according to Hollywood Reporter, although they could be wrong of course. Gold Derby has it at number 8, so it could depend on how many movies they put in the category this year. 

And sorry, but it is objectively correct that if the film doesn't rectify next week-end, and drops another 40%+, 100M is gone. That's all I was saying.

No it isn’t. You’re overlooking the weekday numbers. A 40% drop gives it around 4.6m weekend which isn’t even considering the Monday MLK gross. 5-6m 4day is happening. Probably more since another 40% drop looks unlikely. 1917 + Just Mercy + Like A Boss flooded the marketplace and competed for similar audiences. Bad Boys 2 is a different demo and Doolittle is an inevitable family flop.
 

Which, again, this is just 2M off from Wolf of Wall Street’s 4day MLK weekend. It’s not falling drastically behind to warrant concern. In fact, it tends to outperform it during the weekday. Yet you think it’s somehow not making an additional 20m in the next 2 months? Even a dud like Walter Mitty added another 8m from now until it closed 

[TLK]

Dolittle will still make a good bit of money for a January movie even if it flops relative to its budget. $30 million 4-day may not be impressive for a $175 million movie but it will have an impact on the MLK weekend boxoffice.

[a2k]

14 minutes ago, Europe is my playground said:

There are still people minimizing the blow... Dude, the trilogy lost HALF its audience between 1st and 3rd film: It's BAD, and the sign that Star Wars failed to deliver (for whatever reasons) the ways other franchises (Potter, LOTR...) managed to do.

thanks for reminding how amazingly consistent potters were. potter1(975) to potter3(797) drop would have given tros 1690 ww and potter3 didn't have the finale factor. potter1's the 2nd biggest potter (loosing a decade later due to 3d and inflation) while potter3's the smallest one and it's "just" an 18% drop from potter1 which honestly had disappointed me that time.

Edited January 12, 2020 by a2k

[Europe is my playground]

5 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

No it isn’t. You’re overlooking the weekday numbers. A 40% drop gives it around 4.6m weekend which isn’t even considering the Monday MLK gross. 5-6m 4day is happening. Probably more since another 40% drop looks unlikely. 1917 + Just Mercy + Like A Boss flooded the marketplace and competed for similar audiences. Bad Boys 2 is a different demo and Doolittle is an inevitable family flop.
 

Which, again, this is just 2M off from Wolf of Wall Street’s 4day MLK weekend. It’s not falling drastically behind to warrant concern. In fact, it tends to outperform it during the weekday. Yet you think it’s somehow not making an additional 20m in the next 2 months? Even a dud like Walter Mitty added another 8m from now until it closed 

Ok, you might be right (I hope you are, seems important for you). 

The film did OK anyway, whether it crosses 100M or not, even though I have to admit that I'm unimpressed with the numbers since day 1.

2nd week-end had me briefly hoping for some kind of breakthru run à la Knives Out, but it doesn't seem like it will happen.