92nd Academy Awards Nominations - The Official Thread | Joker leads the pack with 11 noms

[WittyUsername]

Jojo Rabbit winning would be like when Green Book won last year. 

[Valonqar]

8 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Jojo Rabbit winning would be like when Green Book won last year. 

it would be absolutely shocking cause it didn't win a single Picture award. GB won Globe and PGA so it was a toss up between it and Roma (BAFTA, DGA, all other director wins). However, Jojo could sneak via Adapted and/or Editing but it would still be a shock because it didn't show up in Picture wins anywhere. 

 

that said, it has a legit shot because of the Script. Director win (or even nom) is not as important for the win as is the Script. And it also has an acting nom which 1917 and Parasite don't. Preferential ballot favors movies with acting noms due to number of actor voters. 

Edited February 9, 2020 by Valonqar

[Madhuvan]

Best Picture : Once Upon a time in Hollywood

 

Best Director : Sam Mendes

 

Best Actor : Phoenix

 

Best Actress : Scarlett Johansson

 

Best Supporting Actor: Laura Dern /Brad Pitt

 

Best Screenplay : Parasite

 

Best Adapted Screenplay : Jojo Rabbit

 

Best Score : Joker

 

Best Makeup : Bombshell

 

Best Costume : Little Women

 

Best Sounds : 1917

 

Best Editing : Ford v Ferrari

 

Best Cinematography : Parasite

 

 

[titanic2187]

I stick with my Parasite upset. 

[Madhuvan]

There is going to be surprise 100%. 

 

I have a feeling it will be in Actress category like last year. 

 

Once upon a time in Hollywood is very safe and easy BP win. 

1917 and Parasite will cut each other. 

Remember this is preferential voting system. 

[Valonqar]

OUATIH is not winning Picture if Parasite takes Original. Script has been the key to Picture wins so OUATIH win based on Supporting Actor only makes no sense. 

 

Also, there's a big difference between last year actress "surprise" and this year. No actress, absolutely none, showed up in actress wins but Zellweger. The only one that had winning traction (critics) was Lupita. And she isn't nominated to it's a moot point. Coleman last year had BAFTA and Globe. Which means she was a fair shot. Scarlett or another actress would literally come from nowhere. I'd say that Peschi and Banderas had minuscule shot at upsetting due to winning critics awards even though they didn't show up with any televised award wins. But ladies were completely dominated by Dern and Zellweger (aside Lupita's critics run). 

Edited February 9, 2020 by Valonqar

[gadd]

The preferential ballot has its problems, but if it weren't in place the Best Picture race wouldn't have been as open as it has over the last few years. I'm sticking with 1917 to win the big prize mostly because of its PGA win which demonstrates its strength on a preferential ballot. However, Parasite's SAG and WAG wins have shaped it as a strong alternative to 1917. 

The identity of the Best Picture presenter has been kept closely under wraps according to reports from the rehearsal...

Edited February 9, 2020 by gadd

[Madhuvan]

Best Award Acceptance speech of this year. Oscar's can't top this. 

 

This is how I win

 

 

 

[grim22]

18 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

OUATIH is not winning Picture if Parasite takes Original. Script has been the key to Picture wins so OUATIH win based on Supporting Actor only makes no sense. 

 

Also, there's a big difference between last year actress "surprise" and this year. No actress, absolutely none, showed up in actress wins but Zellweger. The only one that had winning traction (critics) was Lupita. And she isn't nominated to it's a moot point. Coleman last year had BAFTA and Globe. Which means she was a fair shot. Scarlett or another actress would literally come from nowhere. I'd say that Peschi and Banderas had minuscule shot at upsetting due to winning critics awards even though they didn't show up with any televised award wins. But ladies were completely dominated by Dern and Zellweger (aside Lupita's critics run). 

Yeah, normally when the Globes drama winner doesn't win the winner is the Globes comedy winner. Awkwafina being taken out of the equation helps Zellweger a lot. Colman actually won Globes, BAFTA and a Comedy Actress Critics Choice last year.

 

The only person in history to not win the Oscars after winning Globes, Critics, SAG and BAFTA was Russell Crowe. And there 2 factors happened - he had just won the year before and, this is the big one, he decided to threaten to kill the BAFTA producer because his speech was cut short.

[Valonqar]

25 minutes ago, gadd said:

The preferential ballot has its problems, but if it weren't in place the Best Picture race wouldn't have been as open as it has over the last few years. I'm sticking with 1917 to win the big prize mostly because of its PGA win which demonstrates its strength on a preferential ballot. However, Parasite's SAG and WAG wins have shaped it as a strong alternative to 1917. 

The identity of the Best Picture presenter has been kept closely under wraps according to reports from the rehearsal...

yes, this. upsets never happen out of blue. there's support build up. for example, Parasite SAG, WGA and ACE wins plus Original and Editing noms are strong competition to 1917 that isn't even nominated for Script and Editing (both important for winner scenario). Same goes for Jojo though Jojo doesn't have director nom which Parasite does but Parasite doesn't have acting nom which Jojo does. So when you look at it, 1917 main claim to Picture win is Director win. It missed Editing, Script and Acting which is big. OTOH, its main competition could path its way to Picture win by winning Script + Editing or one of them preferably Script. 

 

Now, do they know which movie will win and therefore bring a presenter that has some connection to the winner (SLP presenting the Script award to Spike Lee) or they estimate which movie's the likeliest winner and go from there?

 

@grim22 agreed, Crowe is a famous special case and since it was long time ago, I assume they didn't have a truncated Oscar season so backlash had time to develop between BAFTA incident and ballot closing.  OTOH, shortened season is helping frontrunners not to suffer the frontrunner fatigue. 

Edited February 9, 2020 by Valonqar

[filmlover]

Yeah, there won't be any surprises among the acting winners this year. In fact I wouldn't be too surprised if Judy ended up pulling another The Iron Lady and took home both of its two nominations (in the same two categories, no less) given how much Renee's transformation was praised.

[grim22]

12 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

yes, this. upsets never happen out of blue. there's support build up. for example, Parasite SAG, WGA and ACE wins plus Original and Editing noms are strong competition to 1917 that isn't even nominated for Script and Editing (both important for winner scenario). Same goes for Jojo though Jojo doesn't have director nom which Parasite does but Parasite doesn't have acting nom which Jojo does. So when you look at it, 1917 main claim to Picture win is Director win. It missed Editing, Script and Acting which is big. OTOH, its main competition could path its way to Picture win by winning Script + Editing or one of them preferably Script. 

 

Now, do they know which movie will win and therefore bring a presenter that has some connection to the winner (SLP presenting the Script award to Spike Lee) or they estimate which movie's the likeliest winner and go from there?

 

@grim22 agreed, Crowe is a famous special case and since it was long time ago, I assume they didn't have a truncated Oscar season so backlash had time to develop between BAFTA incident and ballot closing.  OTOH, shortened season is helping frontrunners not to suffer the frontrunner fatigue. 

They try to adjust the presenter to get an “Oscar moment” to happen. But till the envelopes are opened only the 2 accountants know who won.

 

The SLJ presenting worked last year because Spike was the strong favorite. They had Boseman and Danai present awards Black Panther was nominated for, but BP didn’t win them. Harrison Ford presenting it to Shakespeare in Love is another example.

[Valonqar]

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

They try to adjust the presenter to get an “Oscar moment” to happen. But till the envelopes are opened only the 2 accountants know who won.

 

The SLJ presenting worked last year because Spike was the strong favorite. They had Boseman and Danai present awards Black Panther was nominated for, but BP didn’t win them. Harrison Ford presenting it to Shakespeare in Love is another example.

Oy! 

[filmlover]

Photos from the rehearsal reveal that Natalie Portman and Timothee Chalamet will be presenting together. Hopefully one of the Little Women categories so we can see his reaction if the movie either wins or loses lol.

[grim22]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Photos from the rehearsal reveal that Natalie Portman and Timothee Chalamet will be presenting together. Hopefully one of the Little Women categories so we can see his reaction if the movie either wins or loses lol.

Only category Little Women is favored in is Costumes. Taika likely winning adapted

[filmlover]

Just now, grim22 said:

Only category Little Women is favored in is Costumes. Taika likely winning adapted

Zazie Beetz is also presenting tonight. Bet she's presenting Score since that's where Joker's strongest chances of picking up a non-Joaquin win tonight are.

[gadd]

9 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Photos from the rehearsal reveal that Natalie Portman and Timothee Chalamet will be presenting together. Hopefully one of the Little Women categories so we can see his reaction if the movie either wins or loses lol.

This is one of my pet peeves with the Oscars. Why get people who are, to varying extents, close with one of the nominees to present an award unless it's an absolute lock like Scorsese winning Director for The Departed? Sometimes it makes for a really nice moment like Matt Damon presenting Kenneth Lonergan with his Oscar or Samuel L. Jackson giving Spike Lee his one last year, but then you have occasions like Ansel Elgort and Eiza Gonzalez presenting the Sound categories which Baby Driver was up for, only for it not to win either of them.

Edited February 9, 2020 by gadd

[grim22]

6 minutes ago, gadd said:

This is one of my pet peeves with the Oscars. Why get people who are, to varying extents, close with one of the nominees to present an award unless it's an absolute lock like Scorsese winning Director for The Departed? Sometimes it makes for a really nice moment like Matt Damon presenting Kenneth Lonergan with his Oscar or Samuel L. Jackson giving Spike Lee his one last year, but then you have occasions like Ansel Elgort and Eiza Gonzalez presenting the Sound categories which Baby Driver was up for, only for it not to win either of them.

Eiza’s reaction is still A++++

 

😂😂😂

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, gadd said:

This is one of my pet peeves with the Oscars. Why get people who are, to varying extents, close with one of the nominees to present an award unless it's an absolute lock like Scorsese winning Director for The Departed? Sometimes it makes for a really nice moment like Matt Damon presenting Kenneth Lonergan with his Oscar or Samuel L. Jackson giving Spike Lee his one last year, but then you have occasions like Ansel Elgort and Eiza Gonzalez presenting the Sound categories which Baby Driver was up for, only for it not to win either of them.

To them it's just one or two more famous faces as presenters attending the ceremony. They really don't put too much thought into it most of the time and leave it to chance.

[Valonqar]

2 minutes ago, gadd said:

This is one of my pet peeves with the Oscars. Why get people who are, to varying extents, close with one of the nominees to present an award unless it's an absolute lock like Scorsese winning Director for The Departed? Sometimes it makes for a really nice moment like Matt Damon presenting Kenneth Lonergan with his Oscar or Samuel L. Jackson giving Spike Lee his one last year, but then you have occasions like Ansel Elgort and Eiza Gonzalez presenting the Sound categories which Baby Driver was up for, only for it not to win either of them.

Drama. The point is that it could go either way so you either get happy reunion a la SLP/Spike or WTF like when they lose.

 

Portman is working with Waititi on Thor so it's a pretty safe choice to have her with Chalamet to present Adapted since it's a tossup between him and Gerwig for win. But maybe they are presenting Costume, in which case she has a tiny connection with Waitit's movie (Jojo is up for that too, against LW).