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Eric Riley

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sorry for the repeat posts but can I just say, this whole conversation is dumb.

Frozen 2 didn't have a "good" run. It didn't have a "really good" run.

 

It had a PERFECT run. I literally cannot see a situation where it would have grossed more than it has done.

 

It's genuinely unbelievable that it has out-grossed the first film given how insanely huge the first was.

 

In terms of box office it is THE biggest, most successful, most profitable, animated film in the HISTORY OF CINEMA.

 

What more can you want?

 

Why would it have grossed $200M worldwide if audiences had loved it even more than they did already? Where is that money coming from? $200M is what 30 million tickets, who are the 30 million extra people who would have only bought that ticket if frozen 2 was even better than it is?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, cdsacken said:

1.55 being damn near perfect means 1.45 is excellent.

 

1.25 would be good

1.15 solid

1b+ average but still not bad

800-1B meh

Under 800 no bueno

The way I saw it before the release was:

 

1.6B amazing

1.5B great

1.4B good

1.3B average

1.1B decent

900m meh

below 900 would have been pretty bad.

 

The reason I thought this for Frozen2 was because the first one was a big phenomenon and people spoke of it so much. The merch sales were insane and a lot of kids I know are big fans (specialy girls).

 

So it seems to finish between good and great in my book. And for a sequel to not dissapoint is already a big up so it doing great is almost the most you could ask from it.

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26 minutes ago, Avatree said:

I don't have time or enough interest to go and get numbers for you but yes this is generally how sequels work. If a film is not known to people beforehand then they have less interest to see it ASAP.

 

eg if you had little interest in Iron Man and then you saw it in week 9 and you really enjoyed it - then when Iron Man 2 comes out, you will probably not wait until week 9 to see it.

 

See: every sequel ever

Yeah, as I suspected it seems you’ve completely missed the mathematics behind what I’m asking about. Yes, of course, most people show up earlier to sequels. The multiplier from the first week is lower. The multiplier from the 2nd week is probably lower too, and even from the third week would make intuitive sense. There’s no reason why that dynamic would affect the ratio between the 7th week and the following gross, because the rush has already taken effect by then and reduced the denominator.   
 

Late legs are related to totally different factors than overall legs, and obviously I am aware that legs from OW are lower for sequels but that was not the claim of interest.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
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Sorry to highjack this thread with my own agenda, but as some of you know I am a massive horror fan.  I also write for a website called Top10films.  I worked a long time on doing the top ten horror films of the decade. I'd love it if some of you read it.  My opinions are usually much different than most people when it comes to horror.  No Hereditary or Conjuring etc on my top ten.  

 

https://www.top10films.co.uk/57174-top-10-horror-films-of-the-2010s/#comment-2044217

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27 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Fine, but don't sink 250 million dollars into it and give your star 20 million plus a % of the gross.  Pretty simple.

If Universal didn't pay RDJ that for a tent pole another studio would have for another tent pole.  WB would have just got him earlier for Holmes 3 (and reportedly they want him for Holmes 4- how much do you think they're paying?).  As said the movie and that old IP wouldn't have been green lit without an actor who probably demands at least $15m+ points.

 

This is an industry where Reynolds and The Rock are respectively getting $20m+ and $30m+ from Netflix for a movie Universal said was too expensive to make and release.

 

Their problem was not the star and how much he's paid but the quality of the script and the director.   Making better movies helps a lot.  If this had just OK or mediocre reviews it would have done significantly better.

 

They also missed an opportunity not making it a musical again when musicals are doing so well again (unlike when the first was released when musicals were decreasing in popularity)

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54 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:

I don't think doing "well" internationally well help the movie much though. Like, it could make 300 mil OS (which I think is decent) and still be a flop.

If it makes $300M OS and $75M DOM, that would be $375M WW on a $175M production budget...and we have proclaimed many movies that have more than doubled their production budgets as "hits"...whether or not their ultimate financing deal breakdowns worked for/against them...

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After 2019 i think we must learn how to manage expectations 

 

I’ve seen people pretending CM should do more than it did.

 

TS4 have the biggest debut of the franchise after an 9 year hiatus and people almost call it a disaster. Afterall the movie surpass the third one both DOM / WW and  still some people say the performance wasn’t that good.

 

TLK made almost 1.6B and some people legitimately say it’s a big disappointment. 
 

Now Frozen 2 become the biggest animation of all time, surpassed the first movie which is already giant in everything, is going to finish with almost 1.5B and people insist the numbers aren’t that good.

 

Even SW9, despite being a true disappointment, is treated by some like a complete disaster when it’s not.

 

And let’s not forget some people freaking out because EG didn’t make 3B.

 

$ 600M DOM and +1.6B doesn’t fall off trees, it’s time to stop expecting this mindblowing numbers for every big movie. 

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5 minutes ago, Avatree said:

Frozen 2 didn't have a "good" run. It didn't have a "really good" run.

 

It had a PERFECT run. I literally cannot see a situation where it would have grossed more than it has done.

Absolute nonsense. It was great, maybe great+. Getting sick of the presumption or insinuation that I don’t realize that. But in the three biggest OS markets reception had room to be better, and it shows when following weekly drops. Those 3 markets could be near 100M right there with a 2% higher egg, .2 higher Maoyan, .2 higher Eiga, none of which would be crazy for an animation sequel. DOM the reception metrics are also good-but-not-great, dunno about reaching say RO but passing BatB/TROS would have been likely with a couple % better.     
 

You can appreciate a 90th percentile outcome without trying to contort it into a 99th percentile one and spouting nonsense in the process.

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20 minutes ago, pepsa said:

The way I saw it before the release was:

 

1.6B amazing

1.5B great

1.4B good

1.3B average

1.1B decent

900m meh

below 900 would have been pretty bad.

 

The reason I thought this for Frozen2 was because the first one was a big phenomenon and people spoke of it so much. The merch sales were insane and a lot of kids I know are big fans (specialy girls).

 

So it seems to finish between good and great in my book. And for a sequel to not dissapoint is already a big up so it doing great is almost the most you could ask from it.

Sequels to a phenomenon rarely increase though.    Phenomenons create a buzz that attract people who'd normally have no interest in seeing a certain film or genre.   It had a huge afterlife in home video and toy sales but then it had an enormous long lived theatrical run.  That Frozen 2 increased not just domestically but O/S with significantly less advantageous exchange rates is more than just "average" or "good".

 

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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13 minutes ago, baumer said:

Sorry to highjack this thread with my own agenda, but as some of you know I am a massive horror fan.  I also write for a website called Top10films.  I worked a long time on doing the top ten horror films of the decade. I'd love it if some of you read it.  My opinions are usually much different than most people when it comes to horror.  No Hereditary or Conjuring etc on my top ten.  

 

https://www.top10films.co.uk/57174-top-10-horror-films-of-the-2010s/#comment-2044217

Where's Babadook, baumer?

;)

 

 

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joking aside, nice list B. I wanted to see Assassination Nation but it only played for 1 week near me. hope it comes to Netflix. it sounds so up my street.

 

Mandy i don't understand everyone's fascination with. it feels like you need to be on Mandy to enjoy it.

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9 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

If it makes $300M OS and $75M DOM, that would be $375M WW on a $175M production budget...and we have proclaimed many movies that have more than doubled their production budgets as "hits"...whether or not their ultimate financing deal breakdowns worked for/against them...

 

Exactly!  Remember when Star Trek came out in 09?  Without looking it up it make something like 350 mill WW on a budget of something like 150 million and people here said it was an acceptable start.  :rofl:

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10 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Absolute nonsense. It was great, maybe great+. Getting sick of the presumption or insinuation that I don’t realize that. But in the three biggest OS markets reception had room to be better, and it shows when following weekly drops. Those 3 markets could be near 100M right there with a 2% higher egg, .2 higher Maoyan, .2 higher Eiga, none of which would be crazy for an animation sequel. DOM the reception metrics are also good-but-not-great, dunno about reaching say RO but passing BatB/TROS would have been likely with a couple % better.     
 

You can appreciate a 90th percentile outcome without trying to contort it into a 99th percentile one and spouting nonsense in the process.

I'm not going to pretend to understand Japanese box office but its biggest OS market was China where it made $123m, which is fantastic given that the first one did not get relased in China.

 

It also had a big increases in Korea and the UK which were the two biggest markets outside Japan for the first film.

 

Yes the drop in japan is big but the first film was such a phenomenon there that a massive drop off was guaranteed. Could it have made more money there, I've no idea, but I do know that what works in some countries, doesn't work in others.  If reception had been better in Japan, it may have been worse in America, and so forth.

 

I still think you're nuts.

 

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11 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

Exactly!  Remember when Star Trek came out in 09?  Without looking it up it make something like 350 mill WW on a budget of something like 150 million and people here said it was an acceptable start.  :rofl:

Wow, that movie has a lower WW:budget ratio than I would have expected given the number of sequels that were made/pursued. I guess being 2/3rd from DOM helped.

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23 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Sequels to a phenomenon rarely increase though.    Phenomenons create a buzz that attract people who'd normally have no interest in seeing a certain film or genre.   It had a huge afterlife in home video and toy sales but then it had an enormous long lived theatrical run.  That Frozen 2 increased not just domestically but O/S with significantly less advantageous exchange rates is more than just "average" or "good".

 

 

Tbh sequels on OS side do often increase, even if they were phenomenons. OS always seems to be one movie behind. (Shrek, Ice Age, Pirates, transformers) for what ever reason OS seems to be later to the hype and the hype dies later.

 

The biggest thing for frozen was that it wasn't super super big anywere in the world but Japan. It had so many room to grow in a lot of markets. But I do agree that it had a great run. I won't call it amazing as for that it needed to break out. IW was Amazing, JW was Amazing, F1 was Amazing, TFA was amzing. You get the point. Frozen2 doesn't belong in that list, this doesn't mean it didn't do great because obviously it did.

 

EDIT: It was extremely big in SK as well 10m admission isn't an easy number to increase on.

Edited by pepsa
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Frozen 2 run is great. it increased where it should which is OS markets especially expanding markets. It also increased dom though not as much as most expected but that's due to tougher competition. TROS took some audience away and I daresay LW took some women away. Those movies are non-entity in some foreign markets so F2 had less competition and more room for legs.  

Edited by Valonqar
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“ What If Titanic just being released now??? It should have a lot more money than it did years ago! “
” What If Endgame was released 5 years ago??? It should have more than $3B !”

” What if Joker wasn’t rated R but. PG-13?? It would have attracted more audience thus making more money!! “

” What if Disney didn’t fuck up Aladdin trailer and marketing?? Should have beat BatB easy! “
” What If Snyder cut version of JL which was played in the cinema , not the whedon whatever!!! Sure it won’t be a complete disappointment. “
 

and now “ What if Frozen had greater reception and songs than it did??? Surely would add hundreds of millions more!”

 

see the pattern? 
 

you can make every pointless argument like that into every movie either it’s flop or highly successful. Even to the movie with phenomenal run more than you can imagine. Rather than saying “ what if “ and making some hypothetical bullshit about what movie should do in the first place ( which would be such a nonsense ), we just need to appreciate what kind of run the movie made and how much box office it grossed. If you kept telling and questioning about that , you couldn’t enjoy your life at all. Just sit and enjoy! Nothing more nothing less.

 

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