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MLK Weekend Thread: Bad Boys 62.5/73.03 (2nd biggest January debut) | Dolittle 21.84/28.3 | 1917 21.98/26.9

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12 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Pretty sure that’s @8wombi7’s 50.87 prediction from the Derby.

@keysersoze I think said from his numbers also said it was doing in the 50s

 

I thought 50s possible but I also that it could have been front loaded so I hedged with $45m.  In the Derby I rarely shoot for the high end

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3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

@keysersoze I think said from his numbers also said it was doing in the 50s

 

I thought 50s possible but I also that it could have been front loaded so I hedged with $45m.  In the Derby I rarely shoot for the high end

8wonbi wasn’t the only user here who thought 50+ for the 3-day by the time Thursday ended, but in my experience whenever BOP cites “expectations on a certain popular box office prediction website” it’s only about derby predictions, not comments. Keeps things more on the record, so to speak.

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by wednesday night we thought 50m+ 3 day was possible. @Menor also extrapolated the same from PS data. But it went above that. walk ups have been great for this every day so far. That shows it has potential for a good run. next 2 weekend openers look weak to me and so it should have a good run. 175m+ should happen.

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8 hours ago, ban1o said:

I don’t get how bad boys is “American centric” lmao 

It's not.  It's in the same category as the Fast movies for me. Action packed,  banter and a twirling mustache villain.  Plus, both series have a diverse cast. It's all perfect in my book. 

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1 hour ago, Johnny Tran said:

It's not.  It's in the same category as the Fast movies for me. Action packed,  banter and a twirling mustache villain.  Plus, both series have a diverse cast. It's all perfect in my book. 

Fast movies are pretty globe-trotting. I'd say Bad Boys is more American-centric because it, well, takes place in America (at least compared to the more recent Fast movies).

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11 hours ago, The Horror of Lucas Films said:

That's a poor excuse, The Mumy is a movie aiming to Adult audiences, those persons do care about reviews.

 

Families? Not at all. 

Good trailers can probably survive bad reviews quite well (the Transformer had them for example)

 

14 hours ago, Alli said:

Scott starts the year with a very bad take

 

 

 

That quite the strange take even for him:

"RDJ" is clearly no stronger now than it was prior to becoming Tony Stark.

 

Does the Sherlock Holmes both make half a billion and Due Date over $200M with 2005 RDJ ?

Dolittle make more than 2x Star Wars on OW with 2005 RDJ ?

Maybe, who knows, but that is quite far from being clear.

 

Is looking at the 2008 Tropic Thunder result with today glass is also quite misleading, I am pretty sure that movie made a huge bank.

 

He contradict itself right away saying : Guy Ritchie’s Sherlock Holmes movies, which amounted to a strong “star+character”

 

There’s a lot that went wrong with Dolittle, but chief among them was spending MCU money (and giving Downey Jr. an MCU paycheck) for playing anyone other than Iron Man.

 

I would say that it was not even in the movie problem, how different would have been the story if RDJ would have got a Walberg not in Transformer type of money on this (say around $12-14M, there would be virtually nothing different if it would have been 184M instead of 190M budget with a on a more budget up front salary).....

 

Universal will survive the “disaster in relation to cost” miss that is Dolittle, thanks to both 1917

Also by being part of an over 30B media conglomerate, I doubt any movie even doing $0 can kill a major-studio with how big they become (and how big the TV business tend to be relative to the movie side of them)

Edited by Barnack
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Recap preprint
 

Spoiler

Jan 13 - 20 Week Recap -- Bad Boys DoALot to Bring the 4-Day to Life

This is, somehow, the first major 4-day weekend since I took over this series. Traditionally I think it has gone up on Monday regardless and just covered the weekdays+3-day, but I decided to try out waiting for actuals and doing an 8-day “week,” so next recap will only cover 6 days. We’ve got another 4-day coming up pretty soon in President’s Day weekend, and I’m happy to do that as 8+6 or 7+7 depending on what people prefer to see.

Openers

  • The story of the weekend is the massive overindexing of Sony’s Bad Boys 4 Life, which scored 73M over the 4-day and is the largest OW for a pure January release (American Sniper’s first wide weekend in January was larger with 107M over the MLK 4-day). From the top 10 MLK openers, Sniper, Black Hawk Down, and Paul Blart:Mall Cop are all originals with over 3x legs from the 4-day that Bad Boys is unlikely to be able to match. Cloverfield, as a horror movie, is an outlier in the other direction with just a 1.74x multiplier from the 4-day. The remaining 5 movies (Glass, Ride Along 1&2, The Book of Eli, and The Green Hornet) all had multipliers from the 4-day between 2.2 and 2.8x, giving a likely finish of 160-205M for Bad Boys. My gut is saying that the strong reception and weak competition will take it near the top of that range, but the large previews could serve to counteract that somewhat.

  • Dolittle debuted with 29.5M. While many were expecting even worse midweek, it’s still an absolute disaster relative to the estimated 175M+ budget and the first big flop of 2020. Comparing with some similarly sized MLK debuts with poor critic reception, audience reception, or both: Contraband gives 69M, Stomp the Yard gives 70M, The Nut Job gives 74M, and Along Came Polly gives 80M. Previews didn’t play a large part in Dolittle’s opening, so I think it can plausibly target 65-80M.

Holdovers

  • 1917 pulled in 42M over the Mon-Mon frame, 113% of its wide opening 3-day. The Revenant is the only comp I like with an MLK 2nd weekend and made 136% of its wide opening in the same Mon-Mon frame. Following The Revenant’s trajectory from here would land 1917 at 149M. The non-MLK 2nd weekend comps require a bit more finesse, but American sniper added 2.2x its 2nd 3-day after its 2nd Mon, and that would take 1917 to 130M. A similar calculation for 12 Strong and 13 Hours gives 120M and 128M respectively. In a fairly rare turn of events, no change from my initial 120-150M range seems warranted here, though I continue to be optimistic about trending toward the higher end.

  • Just Mercy* is currently estimated at an 11M 8-day week, with a very conservative flat Monday, but I think it can pull a good increase to more like a 12M 8-day so I’m going to project from there instead. Selma had a huge MLK boost, which makes sense considering it’s literally about MLK. It added 20.5M after an 18M extended week, or 1.14x, which would take Just Mercy to around 35M. Overcomer also had a 4-day (Labor Day) in the 2nd weekend, and added 1.375x which would get Just Mercy to more like 38M. Then using with the same “after 2nd Mon”/2nd wknd multiplier as The Hate U Give gives 34M, 42 gives 35M, and Harriet 36M. So, if Monday gains about 1M from estimates, a range of 33-38M. If it’s just in line with the estimate, more like 32-36.

  • Little Women* had a 12.5M extended week, holding very well with some help from the Oscar nominations it received. Following The Wolf of Wall Street from the MLK Mon-Mon period ( it scored a nearly identical 12.7M with a highly similar drop) would be good for 112M. Spider-verse also had a very similar MLK week in terms of raw $$ and %, and following its trajectory would lead to 114M. So I feel pretty comfortable with a range of 108-118M at this point.

  • Frozen II* appeared to receive essentially no sing-along boost this weekend, down 34% on the 3-day for an 8-day week of 7M. Ralph2, Moana, and Coco had fairly similar MLK weeks and added 1.7-1.9x, which means it’ll top out at about 475-480M.

  • Knives Out* had a 7.5M week with one of the best drops in the top 10. It’s been running very similarly to Little Women in January, and I expect that to keep up for a 160-165M final tally, likely nabbing HTTYD3’s spot in the 2019 top 15 but certainly no farther.

Movies with a “*” are being covered for the last time in the main section. Next weekend we’ve got two very small looking movies, but with so many of the 2019 releases dropping from the main section I plan to cover The Gentlemen at least and take a closer look at how smaller Oscar nominated movies have been faring. Have a great week!

 

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I dont have any update for BB(probably early morning as my scrapper is super slow) but Dolittle seem to be flat today compared to yesterday at MTC. That is quiet good. 

 

At least to me Dolittle has over performed compared to how horrible its PS was. 

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1 minute ago, keysersoze123 said:

I dont have any update for BB(probably early morning as my scrapper is super slow) but Dolittle seem to be flat today compared to yesterday at MTC. That is quiet good. 

 

At least to me Dolittle has over performed compared to how horrible its PS was. 

Did one of the MTCs change up their website?

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In about a week we’ll have 5 movies in the 500s and 6 in the 600s. For every other hundred range the  count is of course way off of 1% the range value, so I’ll enjoy this little coincidence while it lasts.   
 

Wonder how long we’ll wait before there are more 500s than 600s, as you’d expect the distribution to be.

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On 1/19/2020 at 9:46 PM, Gokira2012 said:

Black movies make far less overseas, sad.. but true, if you think USA is racist, try being black outside America

This is far from truth for Bad Boys tho.

 

Bad Boys is out and out a Bay action movie series with Will Smith's brand of charisma and the lead chemistry as a plus.

People think that the cult status of first 2 movies is only US limited phenomenon but Bayhem brand of action isnt hampered by primitive conventions like language or black comedy, ITS universal.

 

Here in India Bad Boys 2 has the same or greater Cable tv cult action movie status as that of the original Fast and Furious movies and I think its the same for other regions of the world (Id say Latin America probably loves the shit of it ala Fast).

Had Sony revived this series successfully in the early 2010s and not now I would say they could've gotten their lite FnF like franchise right now.

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