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Eric Gardner

MLK Weekend Thread: Bad Boys 62.5/73.03 (2nd biggest January debut) | Dolittle 21.84/28.3 | 1917 21.98/26.9

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Very good numbers! Bad Boys should do around $150-$155 million domestic total or so in the states. It’s debut is the best for Will Smith in a leading role since  Hancock/I Am Legend! This is also one of the top debuts for a buddy movie behind Rush Hour 2. 
 

1917 is still holding up strong! The Academy Awards are coming very soon! This should play well even after the Oscars are done. I still have a feeling this will do between $135-$140 million total. 
 

Doolittle bombed but it’s debut could’ve been much worse. It’s debut is ahead of Delayed Universal’s 4-day winter government holiday bombs such as The Great Wall. But that’s a different entity to track in its own right. This was doomed from the start in all honesty, so in the states I’m gonna say it will sneak past $60 million. 
 

Jumanji holding up strong, considering the last one was a mega surprise juggernaut. $300 million domestic wouldn’t be hard to surpass. Star Wars coming close to $500 million, Rogue One may be an easy target.

 

Award contender Little Women muscling up some legs, and should make over $100 million domestic. Just Mercy is looking debatable, a total close to $30 million wouldn’t be surprising. 
 

Knives Out is a crazy success story, there hasn’t been an original film hanging on like this on the top 10 for a long time. $155 million or even $160 million wouldn’t be a surprise. Hell it would be awesome if it came close to Casino Royale’s & Quauntum Of Solace’s  domestic totals! 
 

Like A Boss collapsed on it’s second weekend. Another causality for the once mega studio Paramount. And no this won’t end the careers of Rose Byrne or Tiffany Haddish, this film was dumped without any good marketing or anything to sell the film to audiences. So this will be fired under the $30 million mark easily. 
 

Frozen II holding up strong for a family sequel! Hopefully $500 million isn’t out of the question. If not then Disney and everyone else should be happy with its turnout.

 

Miscellaneous box office: if anyone cares Uncut Gems outgrossed Blended this weekend. So it’s now outgrossed two of the many Sandler films within the past 10 years, and it’s outgrossed A24 horror film Hereditary. 
 

Parasite could have a shot at outgrossing Neon’s I, Tonya. 
 

Also 2020 is so far off to a great start. This weekend looks to be Bad Boys For Life with $25 million 2nd weekend. The new releases are dead. The Turning and The Gentlemen will probably both do anywhere from $8-$11 million a piece.
 

The Gentlemen looks appealing but it looks like a Kingsman rip-off, and the breakout of Bad Boys For Life will turn away audiences. The Turning I have no clue about the film. 

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36 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Dolittle overestimated by $1.7m lol. 

That is within the standard Margin Of Error.

But I am amused by  people acting like Doolittle is some great comeback triumph. \

SOme people just seem unable to do simple math....

 

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6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

 

 

Although parasite made "only" 28m thus far, it is far more eventful than its face value and the hype generated is just as strong as some 200m-300m grosser in the stateside.

 

 

 

Hype doesn’t pay bills. Could bolster home video though. I hope it gets Best Picture 

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All of these movies (except ABIN) had a huge change in theater count:

12 (10) Spies in Disguise 20th Cent… $2,672,354 -48% 1,761 -910 $1,518 $58,499,221 4
13 N Weathering With You GKIDS $1,806,099   486   $3,716 $4,852,349 1
14 (14) Parasite Neon $1,711,988 +79% 843 +498 $2,031 $27,700,633 15
15 (23) Jojo Rabbit Fox Searc… $1,489,335 +630% 1,005 +880 $1,482 $23,618,407 14
16 (12) Uncut Gems A24 $1,307,246 -61% 930 -1,151 $1,406 $46,235,845 6
17 (17) Ford v. Ferrari 20th Cent… $1,072,856 +41% 1,080 +513 $993 $112,883,244 10
18 (11) The Grudge Sony Pict… $909,733 -74% 977 -1,665 $931 $20,042,374 3
19 (13) Bombshell Lionsgate $614,502 -57% 410 -879 $1,499 $29,279,410 6
20 (35) Joker Warner Bros. $348,048 +487% 854 +769 $408 $334,495,249 16
21 (37) Once Upon a Time…in H… Sony Pict… $320,774 +824% 705 +651 $455 $141,478,795 26
22 (19) A Beautiful Day in th… Sony Pict… $294,242 -44% 365 -154 $806 $60,498,091 9
23 (18) Cats Universal $143,680 -74% 146 -672 $984 $26,791,515 5

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12 minutes ago, lilmac said:

Hype doesn’t pay bills. Could bolster home video though. I hope it gets Best Picture 

Parasite is doing quite well for an "arthouse" film.

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I just can't get enough of that Bad Boys number. What a pleasant surprise! Will the 3-day outdo Birds of Prey???

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1 hour ago, JB33 said:

I just can't get enough of that Bad Boys number. What a pleasant surprise! Will the 3-day outdo Birds of Prey???

I'd say yes. Odds are this doesn't get beat until end of March unless Onward surprises. Honestly though, the fact that (let's say Mulan disappoints Dumbo style) this has a chance of not being beat until May is nuts. 

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36 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I'd say yes. Odds are this doesn't get beat until end of March unless Onward surprises. Honestly though, the fact that (let's say Mulan disappoints Dumbo style) this has a chance of not being beat until May is nuts. 

I think A Quiet Place II will. And I can’t see Mulan doing Dumbo numbers. 

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Dolittle is headed for a big drop today. Ticket sales are down around 57% at MTC1 and 63% at MTC2 and with discount tuesday not sure what does that say for its gross. yesterday MTC over indexed and today it could go other way. Still it will flame out very quickly at this rate. I am stopping tracking.

 

Bad Boys dropped under 18% at MTC but overall drop in $ will be higher due to discount tuesday. 

 

Relatively BB sold 3.65x tickets as dolittle in MTC1 and 3.09x in MTC2 (Dolittle seem to do better in MTC2). 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Dolittle is headed for a big drop today. Ticket sales are down around 57% at MTC1 and 63% at MTC2 and with discount tuesday not sure what does that say for its gross. yesterday MTC over indexed and today it could go other way. Still it will flame out very quickly at this rate. I am stopping tracking.

 

Bad Boys dropped under 18% at MTC but overall drop in $ will be higher due to discount tuesday. 

 

Relatively BB sold 3.65x tickets as dolittle in MTC1 and 3.09x in MTC2 (Dolittle seem to do better in MTC2). 

 

 

Monday ATP will likely be a bit different than on a weekday Monday, and MTC share on Mon vs Tues will also be different than usual, so... take everything with a grain of salt.   
But using normal ratios of 60-70% for Tuesday ATP we get:  

Dolittle ~40% Mon admits-> 24-28% Mon gross -> ~1.55-1.8M. Very reasonable daily drop for a kids movie looking at recent MLK Tues.  

BB ~ 82% Mon admits -> 49-57% Mon gross -> ~5.1-6M. Bit better than I would have guessed.

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16 hours ago, lilmac said:

The first two Bad Boys has good multipliers. Would not be surprised if BB3Life passes $200m

 

PS: They should have saved this title for the fourth film. 🙂

Bad Boys had an over 4x Multiplier released in April

Bad Boys II had a 3x Multiplier released in July

 

So I agree, "Bad Boys For life" having a chance at a decent multiplier.   The Target right now is obviously "John Wick 3" and "Hobbs and Shaw" Domestically even though both of those are from last summer.  It seems Harley and Sonic will be the biggest comp and even those won't be a lock to outgross Bad Boys. They used "Bad Boys For Life" because that was the slogan from Part II also it's a P. Diddy Song who made the label "Bad Boy" was involved in the 1st two movies soundtracks.  They used the P. Diddy song heavily in marketing.   It could just be Bad Boys 4 but they might go with a "Subtitle".   They could easily go "Bad Boys Forever".  I always liked the "Batman Forever" title.  It could work.  

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16 hours ago, druv10 said:

MLK weekend, we should get actuals today.

Seems to be the Universal releases that aren’t getting updated. 

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14 hours ago, Maxmoser3 said:

Jumanji holding up strong, considering the last one was a mega surprise juggernaut. $300 million domestic wouldn’t be hard to surpass. Star Wars coming close to $500 million, Rogue One may be an easy target.

 

How R1 is an easy target? Skywalker made 2.3m on MLK Day, R1 made 3.3 on this day, Skywalker is 7.5 behind r1 it has 0,00% chance to surpass r1. 515m is current target. Jumanji most likely will be under 300m, even if it will make 3x inflated FFS weekend it will be under 300. 290+ should be target(it can finish lower if it will start losing a lot theatres).

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