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YourMother the Edgelord

2021 Box office Discussion

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8 hours ago, Eric Dolittle said:

Fantastic Beasts 3: 70M

Even with the brand damage the second film did, I think this is too pessemistic. 

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9 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

I mean, Fallen Kingdom had a decent drop, and it’s not like there was division between the GA. It’s more of an AOU size drop.

Ultron dropped like 100 million we

Fallen kingdom dropped 350. Much bigger drop

 

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2 hours ago, lorddemaxus said:

Even with the brand damage the second film did, I think this is too pessemistic. 

This is Dark Phoenix 2.0. Nobody cares about this Beasts nonsense anymore. Everybody's waiting for the inevitable HP9.

 

Besides, if you look at the math:

Days of Future Past: 233M

Apocalypse: 155M

Dark Phoenix: 65M

 

Where to Find Them: 234M

Crimes of Grindelwald: 159M

Beasts 3: ?

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Just now, Eric Dolittle said:

This is Dark Phoenix 2.0. Nobody cares about this Beasts nonsense anymore. Everybody's waiting for the inevitable HP9.

 

Besides, if you look at the math:

Days of Future Past: 233M

Apocalypse: 155M

Dark Phoenix: 65M

 

Where to Find Them: 234M

Crimes of Grindelwald: 159M

Beasts 3: ?

Eric, would you mind giving me an explanation for my threadban as requested almost a full day ago?

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42 minutes ago, Eric Dolittle said:

This is Dark Phoenix 2.0. Nobody cares about this Beasts nonsense anymore. Everybody's waiting for the inevitable HP9.

 

Besides, if you look at the math:

Days of Future Past: 233M

Apocalypse: 155M

Dark Phoenix: 65M

 

Where to Find Them: 234M

Crimes of Grindelwald: 159M

Beasts 3: ?

Especially if it’s in the middle of Thor 4 and maybe Little Mermaid which are after its two main demographics.

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5 hours ago, Madhuvan said:

Very conflicted on SM3. 

 

I want this movie to crash and burn. But it is likely 1.2bn+ contender. 

I mean. If there was an MCU film to drop from its predecessor WW, it’d be this one. Mainly due to a lot of direct competition.

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord

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2021 $100M+ films

  1. Avatar 2 - $165M/$650M/$2.5B
  2. Thor: Love and Thunder - $175M/$450M/$1.35B
  3. Jurassic World 3 - $160M/$455M/$1.4B
  4. The Little Mermaid? (If November 21) - $115M/$430M/$1.2B
  5. The Batman - $125M/$420M/$1.25B
  6. Spider-Man 3 - $135M/$375M/$1.05B
  7. Strange 2 - $115M/$325M/$900M
  8. Shang Chi - $110M/$300M/$925M
  9. The Matrix - $125M/$300M/$850Mi
  10. Twocide - $100M/$265M/$700M
  11. Untitled Pixar - $70M/$240M/$685M
  12. Mission Impossible 7: $75M/$235M/$765M
  13. Fast 10 - $100M/$225M/$1.2B (assuming Rock and Statham are back)
  14. Wicked - $65M (five day)/$250M/$500M
  15. Vivo - $55M/$200M/$550M
  16. John Wick: Chapter 4: $65M/$195M/$450M
  17. Elvis - $45M/$175M/$385M
  18. Untilted Disney Animation - $60M (five day)/$165M/$500M
  19. Hotel 4 - $45M (five day)/$150M/$400M
  20. Space Jam 2 - $55M/$140M/$355M
  21. Sing 2 - $40M/$135M/$400M
  22. Cinderella - $35M/$125M/$265M
  23. Fatherhood - $25M/$120M/$200M
  24. Halloween Ends - $55M/$115M/$200M
  25. The Bad Guys - $30M/$110M/$300M

 

Boss Baby 2, Mortal Kombat and Fantastic Beasts 3 all go sub $100M DOM

Edited by YourMother the Edgelord
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Little Mermaid for November 2021? Is there a Disney animated film coming out for thanksgiving already? 3 films on one month is a lot for Disney 

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1 hour ago, Eric Dolittle said:

This is Dark Phoenix 2.0. Nobody cares about this Beasts nonsense anymore. Everybody's waiting for the inevitable HP9.

 

Besides, if you look at the math:

Days of Future Past: 233M

Apocalypse: 155M

Dark Phoenix: 65M

 

Where to Find Them: 234M

Crimes of Grindelwald: 159M

Beasts 3: ?

This is actually a very good comparison. 

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17 hours ago, JWR said:

It's admittedly early, but I think that The Batman has a chance of dethroning Jurassic World for the title of biggest opening weekend in June. 

Batman opening to 200M would be pretty unprecedented and imo it's impossible.

TDKR opened to 160M and that was coming off the amazing reception of TDK.

 

BvS opened to 166M.

 

I struggle to see why it would outgross either of these. Particularly when recent memory of Batman is so poor - people hated BvS and also disliked Justice League.

 

Joker will help but I don't see it scratching 200M.

 

The Batman outgrossing Avengers 2 will not happen.

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1 hour ago, Eric Dolittle said:

This is Dark Phoenix 2.0. Nobody cares about this Beasts nonsense anymore. Everybody's waiting for the inevitable HP9.

 

Besides, if you look at the math:

Days of Future Past: 233M

Apocalypse: 155M

Dark Phoenix: 65M

 

Where to Find Them: 234M

Crimes of Grindelwald: 159M

Beasts 3: ?

Harry Potter has a large enough built-in audience that any HP related film will be to some extent bulletproof. One badly received film won't turn it into Dark Phoenix 2.0.

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1 hour ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

Little Mermaid for November 2021? Is there a Disney animated film coming out for thanksgiving already? 3 films on one month is a lot for Disney 

It’s not certain but seems likely.

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1 minute ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

It’s not certain but seems likely.

Disney has unoccupied reserved spots in March and October for live action movies, maybe it’s the latter?
 

Although TLM as an October release is weird

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@JGAR4LIFE yes there's an animated film booked in for Thanksgiving which is on 25 November.

 

November 19 Dungeons & Dragons (Wide) Paramount Pictures    
  The Exceptional Santa Claus (Wide) Carl Jackson Entertainment    
  Untitled Disney Live Action (Wide) Walt Disney    
 
November 24 Untitled Disney Animation (Wide)
Edited by Avatree
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9 minutes ago, JGAR4LIFE said:

Although TLM as an October release is weird

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22 minutes ago, Avatree said:

ba7bc0bfc330428024ccbadf3aa9f9c9.png

Ok I wasn’t aware of that :hahaha:

 

That raises the likelihood significantly

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June 2021 has the potential to be absolutely insane! Awhile ago I was thinking of making a "June 2021 will be the biggest month ever" club.

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Yeah I'd cool on the $200M+ OW predictions for Batman. If it's well received maybe the sequel will have potential for that. 

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