google-site-verification=EzRt-ZmNlc4J5RNLXiuJpAEGjNviG678nNB1w49cgZg Jump to content
Jamiem

Birds of Prey 113.4m OS 195.8m WW

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

So these are the same markets that Shazam had 15.7 million? Also, I like how beating Terminator Dark Fate by 4% is supposed to be some kind of accomplishment.

Edited by Menor
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Shazam's Wed-Thur to Weekend multi minus China will bring Birds Of Prey to... $35M overseas this weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Menor said:

So these are the same markets that Shazam had 15.7 million? Also, I like how beating Terminator Dark Fate by 4% is supposed to be some kind of accomplishment.

Everything I've seen so far says that they both opened everywhere except Japan. Italy was Wed for Shazam and Thurs for Birds, but a Wed opening there would just take the 7.8 to like 7.95 or something.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, YSLDC said:

Shazam's Wed-Thur to Weekend multi minus China will bring Birds Of Prey to... $35M overseas this weekend.

so 70M-80M WW opening?  I know final gross will be above 200M WW but at this point I have no idea how much higher. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so 70M-80M WW opening?  I know final gross will be above 200M WW but at this point I have no idea how much higher. 

70M start with Shazam multiplier put you at 186M I think.

 

But easy to imagine a much better multiplier for this, with the holiday weekend, no Avenger movie being released, etc...

 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

so 70M-80M WW opening?  I know final gross will be above 200M WW but at this point I have no idea how much higher. 

Do you though?   
 

I mean, I think it’s very likely at least...

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Do you though?   
 

I mean, I think it’s very likely at least...

movies targeted at female audiences tend to have better legs than not. I can see a 110/90 finish atm.

 

but don't quote me on this :ph34r:

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Doin’ a little more prep work for tomorrow’s data. Shazam had 13M Fri for a 56.3M FSS, x4.33      
 

Shazam was more family/kid oriented though, saw some nice Sat boosts in a lot of markets iirc as a result. I suspect Birds will be <4x F:FSS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, RealLyre said:

movies targeted at female audiences tend to have better legs than not. I can see a 110/90 finish atm.

 

but don't quote me on this :ph34r:

Is it because they tend to be less often hyped franchise movie, when they do they tend to have quite similar legs, horror for example tend to be a female targeted genre that is usually frontloaded.

 

Pitch perfect 2 did 183.7 from a 69 start, Mamma Mia 2 120.6 from a 35m start in the heat of good week days summer (and that mixed old audience good legs with woman), twilight sequels had some of the worst legs of that era of blockbuster.

 

Will see the first audience polling do not indicate that it is specially playing female heavy either (around the usual high 50% male to low 40% female for the first thursday shows).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Menor said:

So these are the same markets that Shazam had 15.7 million? Also, I like how beating Terminator Dark Fate by 4% is supposed to be some kind of accomplishment.

:stretcher:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, John Marston said:

200m  ww looks unlikely. It’s not doing well in any market. How is it going to get there? 

I mean, 33x2.75 for 90 DOM+ 5M J+ 105 OS-C-J gets there. A 2.6x should be totally reasonable for an OS-J multi, so that takes a 40M OS 5-day=32M OS FSS=~8M OS Fri, which is still -39% from Shazam. So, it doesn’t look that hard to me, though it could also miss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About 12 hours ago I was thinking it would finish $97M DOM, $218M global.

Now I think it's generous.

 

Maybe it's my 5/10 rating of the movie talking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, sfran43 said:

 

 

18 hours ago, Arendelle Legion said:

Doin’ a little more prep work for tomorrow’s data. Shazam had 13M Fri for a 56.3M FSS, x4.33      
 

Shazam was more family/kid oriented though, saw some nice Sat boosts in a lot of markets iirc as a result. I suspect Birds will be <4x F:FSS

Maybe call that a 40M FSS? Bit lower? Something like 33 DOM+47 OS=80M WW OW or so.   
 

Total should be targeting the 90+130M (including Japan) =220M range or so, at an initial glance.

Edited by Arendelle Legion
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So $45m or something by Sunday night? 
 

$110m total or so seems like the end result. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Arendelle Legion said:

 

Maybe call that a 40M FSS? Bit lower? Something like 33 DOM+47 OS=80M WW OW or so.   
 

Total should be targeting the 90+130M (including Japan) =220M range or so, at an initial glance.

Sounds right. Shazam actually fell from 15.7 Wed+Thur to 14.5 OS-CH on Friday. BOP went from 7.8 to 10.3. It seems due to the R-rating and female-skewing nature it got a Friday bump. However, I would assume that Shazam had more pronounced jumps on Sat-Sun, so its a bit hard to tell where BOP will end up, could be as high as a 50m OS opening. In any case, especially since it seems BOP is less reliant on fast-burn EM markets, I think its more or less a lock to cross 200m WW. Thats not much of a consolation prize, especially since the budget is at least 100m

 

To clarify that last statement, it seems everyone is using the cali tax credit webpage to figure BOP's budget. On that site, BOP has a budget of 84.5m after its tax break. However, that is NOT the budget number. On that same page, Captain Marvel's budget is listed at 118m net. The figures do not take into account post-production. While yes, Captain Marvel had higher post-production costs, BOP DID NOT have 0 post-production costs. Most likely post was about 1/3 of that of Cap M, which still gets BOP to 100m budget (Deadline cited 84.5m but noted many industry sources said BOP's budget was much higher, that's because it was). Still, if BOP can get to 250m, I think itll minimize losses 

Edited by Justin4125
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.