The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[BOfficeStats]

8 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

This isn’t entirely painting a true picture. 
 

Spider-Man 1-2-3 all made under $900m

TSAM films never touched $800m 

yet NWH made $2B because it was the cumulative Spider-Man franchise’s coming together. 
 

$2B is obviously not happening for Deadpool, but using the old Fox X-men movies as measuring sticks is deceptive 

The Raimi Spider-Man movies were way bigger than the 2014-2018 Fox X-Men and Deadpool movies when you adjust for inflation, exchange rates, and market growth.  When you combine that with the 14.5 year gap between Spider-man 3 and NWH, the success of Far From Home, Garfield + Venom crossover hype, along with the PG/PG-13 rating for all Spider-Man films, it makes sense why NWH would get such a gigantic boost.

 

NWH was a family-friendly movie that drew in anyone who liked *at least some of* the Spider-Man movies released between 2002-2021.  Unless Deadpool 3 is shockingly great, it will draw in mostly the same audience for the first two Deadpool films + Logan.  

Edited October 25, 2023 by BOfficeStats

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

This isn’t entirely painting a true picture. 
 

Spider-Man 1-2-3 all made under $900m

TSAM films never touched $800m 

yet NWH made $2B because it was the cumulative Spider-Man franchise’s coming together. 
 

$2B is obviously not happening for Deadpool, but using the old Fox X-men movies as measuring sticks is deceptive 

The Sony Hack includes some work by a consultant that argues Raimi films easily increase by something like 15% or 25% (big difference but I honestly can't recall)  if you port over 2014 era "PLF" screen reach instead of 2004 era ones. That takes you to say ~1B which goes to say $1.5B adjusting for inflation. Only after that you have to talk about the massive, massive, massive real growth in INT markets starting around 2009/2010.

Here's what raw admits look like in Europe (something with minimal state of market changes). You're right that NWH was much bigger than the others but the Raimi films have massive numbers. Infinity War sold 34M tickets in Europe (Endgame 46M w/ Avengers & Ultron at 24M)

 

Film	ADMITS	Year
Spider-Man: No Way Home	42 708 399	2021
Spider-Man	33 599 015	2002
Spider-Man 3	27 248 273	2007
Spider-Man 2	26 761 571	2004
Spider-Man: Far from Home	20 188 672	2019
Spider-Man: Homecoming	14 511 524	2017
The Amazing Spider-Man	14 325 892	2012
The Amazing Spider-Man 2	12 184 940	2014
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse	5 514 008	2018

Edited October 25, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[ZattMurdock]

2 hours ago, Shindaya said:

Huge MCU Fangirl here

 

I got to attend a super early screening of the Marvels and I can answer any questions you may have. I'll just say this, there's a reason that Disney is hiding the review embargo until the very last minute with this one. I wasn't crazy about movies like Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania or Love and Thunder, but they were all better than the Marvels. Hell, even She Hulk and Hawkeye were better than the Marvels.

 

I don't know what they were thinking with this one, but there is literally 0 relevancy for this movie existing in the larger MCU and it does a poor job at pushing the characters forward and making them feel like a true team. I mean, they learn how to fight together but the overall plot and premise with the villain enacting her "evil plan" its just all very generic and middle-of-the-road. I was excited before it started, but by the time it was over i just had to ask myself "what was the point"? 

 

If I'm being generous its a 6/10 movie but im leaning more to a 5/10. This is their biggest miss yet

Sources, sources everywhere. 

 

I miss @BoxOfficeZ.

[Bob Train]

3 minutes ago, PlatnumRoyce said:

The Sony Hack includes some work by a consultant that argues Raimi films easily increase by something like 15% or 25% (big difference but I honestly can't recall)  if you port over 2014 era "PLF" screen reach instead of 2004 era ones. That takes you to say ~1B which goes to say $1.5B adjusting for inflation. Only after that you have to talk about the massive, massive, massive real growth in INT markets starting around 2009/2010. 

By far the biggest growth OS was in China, where NWH was not released (otherwise it would have taken down TFA and IW and come close to Titanic.) All 3 Raimi movies were released there though.

 

So market growth is really not a factor here, as many European markets + Japan have contracted since then (for Hollywood only, in the latter's case), which cancels out LatAm/Asian growth.

 

And exchanges rates were way more favorable in 2000s than they are now, so that goes both ways. And of course, NWH was released in a pandemic, in fact at the literal peak of the pandemic in terms of cases.

 

Otherwise I believe it would have beat Endgame DOM.

[PlatnumRoyce]

3 hours ago, Shindaya said:

If I'm being generous its a 6/10 movie but im leaning more to a 5/10. This is their biggest miss yet

Separate from your final conclusions, does it actually capture the feel of a big, wacky, silver age space-adventure? That's what the director was talking about (without the phrase silver age) as the core selling point but that's not the sense I'm getting from that. 

 

Edited October 25, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce
removed fun but overly large silver age comic book covers

[PlatnumRoyce]

14 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

By far the biggest growth OS was in China, where NWH was not released (otherwise it would have taken down TFA and IW and come close to Titanic.) All 3 Raimi movies were released there though.

 

So market growth is really not a factor here, as many European markets + Japan have contracted since then (for Hollywood only, in the latter's case), which cancels out LatAm/Asian growth.

 

And exchanges rates were way more favorable in 2000s than they are now, so that goes both ways. And of course, NWH was released in a pandemic, in fact at the literal peak of the pandemic in terms of cases.

 

Otherwise I believe it would have beat Endgame DOM.

Let's see if I'm wrong and just completely remove China from aggregate stats. Yeah, I'm probably exaggerating non Chinese growth effects.

Here's 2009's MPAA theme report as a baseline

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20100601120606/http://www.mpaa.org/Resources/091af5d6-faf7-4f58-9a8e-405466c1c5e5.pdf

 

In 2005, the total INT gross is 14.3M. China is 248M. In 2009, China sold 908M. 1.47B in 2010 and 9.3B in 2019.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-chinaboxoffice-idUSTRE7023JL20110103
https://www.screendaily.com/china-box-office-production-levels-up-in-2005/4025593.article

 

US-Canada goes from 8.8 in 2005 to 11.4 in 2019 or a 29.5% increase

Europe+MiddleEast+Africa = 7.6 in 2005 and 10.3 in 2019 (but it's really flat since 2009 after going 7.6/8.6/8.7 in 2005-2007) or a 35.5% increase

Asia Pacific - China goes from 5.35M (5.6 -.250) to  8.5 (17.8 - 9.3) or a 58.9% increase

Latin America goes from 1.1M TO 2.7 (peaked at 3.4M in 2017) or a 309% increase. 

China goes from .250B to 9.3M or a 3720% increase. 

 

[SaltyPistola]

4 hours ago, Shindaya said:

Huge MCU Fangirl here

 

I got to attend a super early screening of the Marvels and I can answer any questions you may have. I'll just say this, there's a reason that Disney is hiding the review embargo until the very last minute with this one. I wasn't crazy about movies like Eternals, Ant-Man and the Wasp Quantumania or Love and Thunder, but they were all better than the Marvels. Hell, even She Hulk and Hawkeye were better than the Marvels.

 

I don't know what they were thinking with this one, but there is literally 0 relevancy for this movie existing in the larger MCU and it does a poor job at pushing the characters forward and making them feel like a true team. I mean, they learn how to fight together but the overall plot and premise with the villain enacting her "evil plan" its just all very generic and middle-of-the-road. I was excited before it started, but by the time it was over i just had to ask myself "what was the point"? 

 

If I'm being generous its a 6/10 movie but im leaning more to a 5/10. This is their biggest miss yet

Can you tell us about the two post credits scenes? I really don't believe you've seen the film. 

[Arlborn]

4 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

Deadpool 3 should be happy with $1B. I guess some fanboys wouldn't be satisfied with that?

 

When did reaching $1B become less special?

 

Only 1 did it 2021, 3 in 2022, and 2 in 2023. It's become much more rare after covid.

I believe the person who mentioned 2 billions was just shitposting.

 

Everyone would be incredibly overjoyed with anything over 1 billion for Deadpool.

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, ZattMurdock said:

Sources, sources everywhere. 

 

I miss @BoxOfficeZ.

If a new account registered on here just to say they left an early screening of this movie and absolutely loved it, people here would be laughing at them and calling them shills.

 

I do agree context matters though, there are a couple of red flags going up with this movie, so a new account coming in and saying that is obviously going to be seen as confirmation for many people, although that's precisely what a shitposter would have expected.

 

I guess all I am saying is that I prefer to wait and see, and hope we get something good out of this and Aquaman 2, even if the odds are relatively low.

[Bob Train]

1 minute ago, Arlborn said:

If a new account registered on here just to say they left an early screening of this movie and absolutely loved it, people here would be laughing at them and calling them shills.

 

I do agree context matters though, there are a couple of red flags going up with this movie, so a new account coming in and saying that is obviously going to be seen as confirmation for many people, although that's precisely what a shitposter would have expected.

 

I guess all I am saying is that I prefer to wait and see, and hope we get something good out of this and Aquaman 2, even if the odds are relatively low.

I think Aquaman 2 could do okay, but there is no way it comes close to the original. Quite frankly nothing between $250m and $650m would surprise me for that one.

 

For Marvels though, it is not looking great, to put it mildly.

[Arlborn]

Just now, Bob Train said:

I think Aquaman 2 could do okay, but there is no way it comes close to the original. Quite frankly nothing between $250m and $650m would surprise me for that one.

 

For Marvels though, it is not looking great, to put it mildly.

Oh, I meant quality-wise, not BO. I just want some good movies.

 

Although I agree with your general point, The Marvels making a cent over 600M considering the whole online narrative against it would just be a miracle at this point. Ceiling is probably that.

 

I'd put Aquaman's ceiling at 750M though, while expecting something closer to 500M.

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Oh, I meant quality-wise, not BO. I just want some good movies.

 

Although I agree with your general point, The Marvels making a cent over 600M considering the whole online narrative against it would just be a miracle at this point. Ceiling is probably that.

 

I'd put Aquaman's ceiling at 750M though, while expecting something closer to 500M.

 

2 hours ago, Bob Train said:

By far the biggest growth OS was in China, where NWH was not released (otherwise it would have taken down TFA and IW and come close to Titanic.) All 3 Raimi movies were released there though.

 

So market growth is really not a factor here, as many European markets + Japan have contracted since then (for Hollywood only, in the latter's case), which cancels out LatAm/Asian growth.

 

And exchanges rates were way more favorable in 2000s than they are now, so that goes both ways. And of course, NWH was released in a pandemic, in fact at the literal peak of the pandemic in terms of cases.

 

Otherwise I believe it would have beat Endgame DOM.

Asian markets grew big time and so did LATAM. Even without China overall BO would be bigger than during Raimi's years.

 

Western european markets did contract but part of it is just that europe doesn't like hollywood's offering that much. The biggest genre became CBMs which Europe is resistant to. Ava2 broke the gross record in a market like germany that was considered dying. Endgame wasn't even the highest grossing film of its year in europe.

 

EDIT: wtf. didn't mean to quote arlborn, sorry bout that.

Edited October 25, 2023 by JustLurking

[ZattMurdock]

15 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

If a new account registered on here just to say they left an early screening of this movie and absolutely loved it, people here would be laughing at them and calling them shills.

 

I do agree context matters though, there are a couple of red flags going up with this movie, so a new account coming in and saying that is obviously going to be seen as confirmation for many people, although that's precisely what a shitposter would have expected.

 

I guess all I am saying is that I prefer to wait and see, and hope we get something good out of this and Aquaman 2, even if the odds are relatively low.

We used to be a lot more cautious with this kind of thing thrown around, that’s all I’m saying. I don’t care if it’s registering to say they loved or hated this film or any other, we actually have people with credible info that come here from time to time, I feel like Twitter slowly becoming a dumpster fire bigger than it was ten years ago proved to be a source of disinformation to everything, including film discussion. 
 

Film is almost two weeks away, we will know if it’s good or bad soon enough. I do think that Disney / Marvel Studios are doing a terrible job dictating the discourse on this film though. Yeah I get that there is a strike going on, but it’s a SAG-AFTRA strike. Where is Nia DaCosta? Where is Kevin Feige? I feel like in a time like this, I know who to follow to know more about Loki than I do about The Marvels. I feel like social media is more to blame for the toxic discourse surrounding the MCU and most of all particularly this film. I just wish that Marvel Studios people would be more active giving us info about this film release and the next. Yeah, Twitter is a mess, but allowing the trolls to dictate the narrative isn’t helping. 

[ZattMurdock]

So… take this with huge amounts of salt:

 

 

 

I would straight discard this, if I didn’t notice something: this account is followed by Simone, an Italian old timer that used to post here on BOT. Do we have any of the Australia regulars around here? @DeeCeelives in Australia, right? @Robertron? Could you check around that? 

[SaltyPistola]

If this is true why Sydney 😭 Melbourne is superior in every way 

[SaltyPistola]

1 hour ago, ZattMurdock said:

We used to be a lot more cautious with this kind of thing thrown around, that’s all I’m saying. I don’t care if it’s registering to say they loved or hated this film or any other, we actually have people with credible info that come here from time to time, I feel like Twitter slowly becoming a dumpster fire bigger than it was ten years ago proved to be a source of disinformation to everything, including film discussion. 
 

Film is almost two weeks away, we will know if it’s good or bad soon enough. I do think that Disney / Marvel Studios are doing a terrible job dictating the discourse on this film though. Yeah I get that there is a strike going on, but it’s a SAG-AFTRA strike. Where is Nia DaCosta? Where is Kevin Feige? I feel like in a time like this, I know who to follow to know more about Loki than I do about The Marvels. I feel like social media is more to blame for the toxic discourse surrounding the MCU and most of all particularly this film. I just wish that Marvel Studios people would be more active giving us info about this film release and the next. Yeah, Twitter is a mess, but allowing the trolls to dictate the narrative isn’t helping. 

I find it sus they're not saying anything. We'll know if they're full of it soon enough. IF they ever actually respond 

Edited October 25, 2023 by SaltyPistola

[JustLurking]

Literally no one took that post seriously. It's pretty fucking obvious that some random new account only talking in completely vague terms is completely bullshitting.

[SaltyPistola]

6 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Literally no one took that post seriously. It's pretty fucking obvious that some random new account only talking in completely vague terms is completely bullshitting.

I know for a fact there have been screenings very recently, so if the post is true that would be pretty grim sign for the film, as audience reception is really all it has left. 

[ZattMurdock]

5 minutes ago, SaltyPistola said:

I know for a fact there have been screenings very recently, so if the post is true that would be pretty grim sign for the film, as audience reception is really all it has left. 

I’m pretty sure that that post is bullshit. I just pointed out because believe it or not, people do look to the posts here on BOT  as credible. When shit like that goes unchecked and it’s simply thrown around with no push back, it’s not just bad for the film itself, but BOT’s reputation as well.  I post here for more than 10 years, so yeah I kinda think it’s important to keep some level of credibility here, we already have too many places spreading fake info as is. 

[JustLurking]

15 minutes ago, SaltyPistola said:

I know for a fact there have been screenings very recently, so if the post is true that would be pretty grim sign for the film, as audience reception is really all it has left. 

I have absolutely no reason to consider a post made by a literal random with no proof provided seriously. If it was one of the people who do regularly get access to early screenings on the site, sure, but that is not the case.