The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[Youngstar]

5 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

There's snippets of the new trailer leaking online so it's probably not far off, week at most.

I would imagine that tickets go on sale soon after

[Arlborn]

On 9/30/2023 at 5:11 PM, emoviefan said:

I am not saying they will be jumping with joy making 600-750 WW but it could be much worse and they know it. 

Exactly, I'm sure anything over 600M, after the scares they had with Quantumania and GOG3's OW and the relative low hype for this one, will make them a bit relieved, really. 700M+ ought to make them relatively happy.

 

I'm thinking the range here is 500-800M WW. I can't see it going lower, or higher than that. China is a huge factor as well...

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

If anyone is curious about The Quorum, they have dropped their early tracking for the film on r/boxoffice (yeah I know) and have it set currently between $95M-$105M.

 

 

[Arlborn]

2 hours ago, AMC Theaters Enjoyer said:

If anyone is curious about The Quorum, they have dropped their early tracking for the film on r/boxoffice (yeah I know) and have it set currently between $95M-$105M.

 

 

I’d go slightly higher myself but that seems very reasonable, although I don’t really trust them

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Arlborn

[Liiviig 1998]

Range sounds about right . I would decrease the lower end to 85 though IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

[Human]

The people on Reddit box office are not taking it seriously.  They no longer trust Quorom.

[ChipDerby]

3 hours ago, Liiviig 1998 said:

Range sounds about right . I would decrease the lower end to 85 though IMO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I would increase the higher end to $115 too

[SpiderByte]

1 hour ago, Human said:

The people on Reddit box office are not taking it seriously.  They no longer trust Quorom.

Is that subreddit even kind of credible?

[Squire]

1 hour ago, Human said:

The people on Reddit box office are not taking it seriously.  They no longer trust Quorom.

To be fair, Quorum got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong. I think they missed on a few other high profile summer releases as well. 

[Valencia]

26 minutes ago, Squire said:

To be fair, Quorum got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong. I think they missed on a few other high profile summer releases as well. 

Quorum said $13M Blue Beetle, $19M Strays, $35M Oppenheimer, $85M Spiderverse, etc.

 

Its useless.

[SpiderByte]

19 million for strays???? Not even Babe, the king of that genre, opened that high.

 

Edit; apparently the Eddie Murphy Dolittle opened to 29. No fucking way in hell Strays, the better part of thirty years late to that trend, was doing more than 10

Edited October 3, 2023 by SpiderByte

[PlatnumRoyce]

2 hours ago, Squire said:

To be fair, Quorum got Barbie and Oppenheimer wrong. I think they missed on a few other high profile summer releases as well. 

 

I think the better argument against the quorum is simply that it's absolutely TERRIBLE at predicting flops for "big IP" films as stuff like Lightyear, Flash and Black Adam showed. 

I don't think the Barbie examples are all that strong. Quorum was constantly revising the barbie comp upwards so their "true final" prediction is just bad (something like 120M?). However, that the quorum's founder was also going out there and explicitly telling people in interviews, Barbie just completely broke their comps based models with different aspects looking like wildly different OW.The Quorum's estimates would have been bad even if they nailed the final number because they're a comps based projection that explicitly told you they didn't have good comps! The lack of real comps meant you got the guy's gut leaning more on the "unaided awareness is great but does it really matter" camp than the "holy mackrel, look at that insane tracking among millennial women"). The high awareness also meant Barbie got dinged for "low interest" from non core audiences. That didn't end up being the case but I've seen multiple marketers flag the "if you love/hate barbie" ad as reflecting WB's internal concerns over the same dynamics. 

 

Both Barbie and Oppenheimer were deeply atypical films for 2023. The Marvels is pretty much a random blockbuster with a binder full of comps. 

 

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by PlatnumRoyce

[Bob Train]

The best case for this movie is $110m/$280m/$600m

 

I don't see how it can make more than that.

[Liiviig 1998]

Loki season 2 reviews are out. They are solid not as strong as season 1 but still fun is what I'm getting from them.

 

81% 

 

Youtube reviews are very positive though .

Edited October 3, 2023 by Liiviig 1998

[SpiderByte]

Tickets in 2 days

[Porthos]

47 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

Tickets in 2 days

 

Ticket *sale date* announced in two days (previous tweet which they deleted said that tickets would go on sale on Thur, but looks not to be the case)

[ChipDerby]

I'd imagine tickets will go on sale on sunday or monday. With a trailer coming before then (hopefully with the villain actually appearing...)

[ChipDerby]

(they should piggyback off the swift hype and use one of her songs in the final trailer)

[Human]

7 hours ago, SpiderByte said:

Is that subreddit even kind of credible?

This place is better at predictions and accurate information while the sub is funnier.

 

With the reddit format it is better at giving news and seeing it quickly.

 

It is like all big subs, a mix of good and bad users.  You have to really check the sources and see where the good discussions are.

 

[Arlborn]

55 minutes ago, Human said:

 

With the reddit format it is better at giving news and seeing it quickly.

 

That's pretty much what I use it for, it's good to know what's going on with a quick glance. I am not sure if I've ever even posted anything on that sub, I rarely really read much of the discussions beyond the top comment or two. It's certainly hardly ever worth replying to anything in there I think.

 

Edited October 3, 2023 by Arlborn