The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[TwoMisfits]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not impossible. Even $40M would not shock me 

 

Seeing supers performance all year, nothing would shock me.  Okay $40M would probably actually be a number that would...but I got the major shock out of my system with Shazam 2...if there was a movie that screamed "decent is no longer good enough for this genre", that was it...

 

I mean GOTG 3. which had Chris Pratt to do a heavy lift for middle America, is the only super this year to even come close to performing within pre-year expectation (ie - when we look at 12/31/22 expectations for 2023 supers movies, where did we think all the supers would hit?)...

[SpiderByte]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Less than 5% chance but not impossible. CBMs are no longer invincible. I still think John wick 4 - TLM is the OW range 

Assuming a DC type opening ignores several important factors with why DCs other movies bombed, most key being the entire company betting all their chips on Flash.

[HummingLemon496]

16 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Not impossible. Even $40M would not shock me 

$40 million? Are you serious? 

Edited October 9, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[HummingLemon496]

Don't worry, we're still high on The Marvels $120m OW

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

All but three of my locals (not counting the drive in) have sets up already.  At approximately 160 showtimes at the moment, which is a little on the low side for an initial Marvel set recently but not exactly tiny for a large release.

 

(Approximate because it was an eye count and I had to keep not counting separate DBOX showings [which are exploding locally thanks to Cinemark converting a bunch of their high profile theaters locally :--/])

 

So, below Marvel single hero, but above regular blockbuster release set?  So, John Wick 4 is not the worst comparison as far as show set size?

[TheFlatLannister]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

$40 million? Are you serious?

Yes. Btw I’m not saying $40M is going to happen it just wouldn’t shock me

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Yes. Btw I’m not saying $40M is going to happen it just wouldn’t shock me

Uhh. . .ok then

[AMC Theaters Enjoyer]

I'm seeing some IMAX 3D showings set for this through AMC.

[Bob Train]

I don't see how $40m can happen given the MCU fanbase. The only way I could see that happening is if they release reviews early and they are Quantumania tier, but I don't think reviews will be anywhere near that bad.

 

A more realistic low-tier would be Black Adam range, so in the $60m-$70m range. If reviews and WOM are good I see $80m-$90m.

[Liiviig 1998]

Ok yes" indeed abandon hope ye enter"

 

At least when charlie was adjusting for inflation when he said lowest MCU opening.

 

40m!!! . Let me have what you smoking.

 

Need sub 8m previews for that to happen .

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

So, below Marvel single hero, but above regular blockbuster release set?  So, John Wick 4 is not the worst comparison as far as show set size?

 

JW4 started with 84 showings, so no.

 

TLM started with 153 which is a bit better.  But again, missing three theaters + drive in, so not even a final initial count.

 

FWIW, GOTG3 started with 205 showings and AtSV started with 124.  The Flash technically started with 158 but then bumped up to 174 when the stragglers reported in the next day.

 

Probably looking at around 185 or so by the time initial sets are up tomorrow morning/whenever the stragglers put up their initial sets.

 

====

 

Also FWIW, I personally think theaters have been over-booking all CBMs on initial sets post-NWH (and really on most CBMs post IW) so a slight course correction to something a bit more sane is long overdue.  And, yes, I've made this post more than a few times in the tracking thread, so this isn't reacting to very recent history. 

 

...

 

Of course, Cinemark is clawing back a lot of that sentiment by having a massive increase in DBOX showings, which I have to track separately, so my good luck only goes so far. :--/

[CoolioD1]

Because one person mentioned it as a possibility I know who in here is gonna be like "You all said it was gonna open to $40 million!" and act like it's a win no matter what happens opening weekend.

[Bob Train]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

JW4 started with 84 showings, so no.

 

TLM started with 153 which is a bit better.  But again, missing three theaters + drive in, so not even a final initial count.

 

FWIW, GOTG3 started with 205 showings and AtSV started with 124.  The Flash technically started with 158 but then bumped up to 174 when the stragglers reported in the next day.

 

Probably looking at around 185 or so by the time initial sets are up tomorrow morning/whenever the stragglers put up their initial sets.

 

====

 

Also FWIW, I personally think theaters have been over-booking all CBMs on initial sets post-NWH (and really on most CBMs post IW) so a slight course correction to something a bit more sane is long overdue.  And, yes, I've made this post more than a few times in the tracking thread, so this isn't reacting to very recent history. 

 

...

 

Of course, Cinemark is clawing back a lot of that sentiment by having a massive increase in DBOX showings, which I have to track separately, so my good luck only goes so far. :--/

Perhaps that is why all recent MCU movies except Shang-Chi (1 month of 0 competition), NWH (Christmas Corridor), and Guardians have had very bad legs. Even Black Panther 2 with 5 weeks of 0 competition, Thanksgiving, and Christmas Corridor barely achieved a better multiplier than $357m opener Endgame.

 

Audiences have no problems finding acceptable seats and showtimes even on opening weekend for MCU movies I guess.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Because one person mentioned it as a possibility I know who in here is gonna be like "You all said it was gonna open to $40 million!" and act like it's a win no matter what happens opening weekend.

 

@TheFlatLannister: Undercover Agent for MCU Stans Everywhere.... CONFIRMED!

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Bob Train said:

Perhaps that is why all recent MCU movies except Shang-Chi (1 month of 0 competition), NWH (Christmas Corridor), and Guardians have had very bad legs. Even Black Panther 2 with 5 weeks of 0 competition, Thanksgiving, and Christmas Corridor barely achieved a better multiplier than $357m opener Endgame.

 

Audiences have no problems finding acceptable seats and showtimes even on opening weekend for MCU movies I guess.

 

Part of that is also 2pm/3pm previews.  Just a ton of demand being burnt off compared to days of yore.

[Mr Terrific]

6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Because one person mentioned it as a possibility I know who in here is gonna be like "You all said it was gonna open to $40 million!" and act like it's a win no matter what happens opening weekend.

Yeahhhhh. 
Are any of the “you all don’t understand reality” posters actually going to find a weird or unrealistic prediction from a stan?

No. apparently not. 
The fatigue people are so excited for this that they are projecting badly. 

[TheFlatLannister]

 

9 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

Because one person mentioned it as a possibility I know who in here is gonna be like "You all said it was gonna open to $40 million!" and act like it's a win no matter what happens opening weekend.

I NEVER SAID IT WAS OPENING TO $40M!!! I’ve been clear about my $75M-$95M OW prediction for about two months. As someone who thought the Flash was going to blow past $100M, a CBM underperforming big time just wouldn’t shock me anymore. 

[CoolioD1]

Just now, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I NEVER SAID IT WAS OPENING TO $40M!!! I’ve been clear about my $75M-$95M OW prediction for about two months. As someone who thought the Flash was going to blow past $100M, a CBM underperforming big time just wouldn’t shock me anymore. 

I know you didn't. I'm just telling you what's going to happen.

[HummingLemon496]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I NEVER SAID IT WAS OPENING TO $40M!!! I’ve been clear about my $75M-$95M OW prediction for about two months. As someone who thought the Flash was going to blow past $100M, a CBM underperforming big time just wouldn’t shock me anymore. 

Flash is DCEU. The DCEU literally has no floor, no fanbase at all.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I NEVER SAID IT WAS OPENING TO $40M!!! I’ve been clear about my $75M-$95M OW prediction for about two months. As someone who thought the Flash was going to blow past $100M, a CBM underperforming big time just wouldn’t shock me anymore. 

 

Now now, you've been on the internet long enough to know that:

 

"Wouldn't shock me" equals: