The Marvels | November 10, 2023 | Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter

[BoxOfficeZ]

On 10/25/2023 at 8:06 AM, ZattMurdock said:

Sources, sources everywhere. 

 

I miss @BoxOfficeZ.

 

I'm still around. I've just been too busy with a production to go see screenings this month. Later this winter though I'll have a bunch of screenings. 

 

Funny thing was I had an opportunity to see Marvels in early Spring but it was unfinished and I had a family issues so timing was off. 

[The GOAT]

To the fallen

 

 

Edited October 29, 2023 by The GOAT

[HummingLemon496]

It's more fun to see a gigantic bomb than a lame-ass $500-600M gross, although this was kinda boring to track because unlike Flash which was a gradual decline (or Quantumania which was tracking well and then took a complete U-turn with reactions/reivews), this was obviously gonna bomb the day pre-sales started. . . though I think Aquaman 2 will be more of a gradual descent because when or if it starts tracking poorly, people will probably just make the "don't worry, it's the holidays, it'll have positive word of mouth and leg out" excuse.

Edited October 29, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Human]

1 hour ago, HummingLemon496 said:

. . . though I think Aquaman 2 will be more of a gradual descent because when or if it starts tracking poorly, people will probably just make the "don't worry, it's the holidays, it'll have positive word of mouth and leg out" excuse.

Watch Aquaman 2 make 2.4 billion somehow with 99 metacritic score.

[TMP]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's more fun to see a gigantic bomb than a lame-ass $500-600M gross, although this was kinda boring to track because unlike Flash which was a gradual decline (or Quantumania which was tracking well and then took a complete U-turn with reactions/reivews), this was obviously gonna bomb the day pre-sales started. . . though I think Aquaman 2 will be more of a gradual descent because when or if it starts tracking poorly, people will probably just make the "don't worry, it's the holidays, it'll have positive word of mouth and leg out" excuse.

Even aquaman 2 looks better than this shit lol

[PlatnumRoyce]

6 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

It's more fun to see a gigantic bomb than a lame-ass $500-600M gross, although this was kinda boring to track

I really think both Captain Marvel 2 and Avatar 2 making a boring amount of money would have been fun in a meta way given different types of online angst about them.  

[Sckathian]

Problem for Marvel isn’t he MCU as a concept can’t really survive making ‘boring’ money. Solo films making boring money can mean Avengers making boring money which simply can’t work for them to support their level of output.

[Zakiyyah6]

7 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

Problem for Marvel isn’t he MCU as a concept can’t really survive making ‘boring’ money. Solo films making boring money can mean Avengers making boring money which simply can’t work for them to support their level of output.

I agree but I also think that claiming that 500-600M is a boring gross for a Captain Marvel sequel is a lie. A film dropping 50-60% from it's predecessor is not a boring gross it is a disastrous gross. 750M would be a boring number. 

[SpiderByte]

13 minutes ago, Sckathian said:

Problem for Marvel isn’t he MCU as a concept can’t really survive making ‘boring’ money. Solo films making boring money can mean Avengers making boring money which simply can’t work for them to support their level of output.

No, The Avengers is not going to bomb because of The Marvels. It'll have been three years, at least, by then.

Edited October 29, 2023 by SpiderByte

[DInky]

5 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

No, The Avengers is not going to bomb because of The Marvels. It'll have been three years, at least, by then.

 

I think the issue here is that if people don't show up for characters who will be the next Avengers then will audiences show up for the team-up?

Edited October 29, 2023 by DInky

[SpiderByte]

6 minutes ago, DInky said:

 

I think the issue here is that if people don't show up for characters who will be the next Avengers then will audiences show up for the team-up?

This is the same argument people had going into the first Avengers movie. And that was well before it was a household name the way it is now. Plus Black Panther, Guardians, and Doctor Strange all cleared 800+ in the last year.

Edited October 29, 2023 by SpiderByte

[HummingLemon496]

16 minutes ago, SpiderByte said:

No, The Avengers is not going to bomb because of The Marvels. It'll have been three years, at least, by then.

Yes, weirdly everyone on r/boxoffice believes that $1B is the floor for Deadpool 3 and that $800M is the ceiling for Avengers 5

[SpiderByte]

4 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes, weirdly everyone on r/boxoffice believes that $1B is the floor for Deadpool 3 and that $800M is the ceiling for Avengers 5

I know right it's insane. Marvel has plenty of time. They already changed their entire approach to television, and they still have plenty of successes in their column (such as the Loki show currently airing). Marvels "everything opens above 100" streak was never sustainable even without COVID, but there's still plenty left in the tank. Worst case scenario is Secret Wars soft reboots to pivot toward the X-Men.

Edited October 29, 2023 by SpiderByte

[HummingLemon496]

Could this potentially beat The Force Awakens --> The Last Jedi's raw domestic drop (-$316M)? It would need to go below $110M domestically. I think it's possible. Off of $7.8M previews, the same IM and legs as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would give this a $121M domestic total, and under-indexing by just $10M is entirely possible if it has poor reception.

Edited October 29, 2023 by HummingLemon496

[Zakiyyah6]

55 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Yes, weirdly everyone on r/boxoffice believes that $1B is the floor for Deadpool 3 and that $800M is the ceiling for Avengers 5

I don't believe that the floor is a billion for an R rated film. Only one R rated film has made 1 billion dollars worldwide. I don't have a prediction for Deadpool 3 because I haven't seen a trailer or anything from it. As for Avengers 5, ask me after we see the box office for the next 3 non Deadpool related MCU films. I'm not predicting anything right now.

[The GOAT]

The Main Character is a Air Force Pilot, but couldn't even conjure up an iota of this dogfight scene from Iron Man. 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

3 hours ago, HummingLemon496 said:

Could this potentially beat The Force Awakens --> The Last Jedi's raw domestic drop (-$316M)? It would need to go below $110M domestically. I think it's possible. Off of $7.8M previews, the same IM and legs as Black Panther: Wakanda Forever would give this a $121M domestic total, and under-indexing by just $10M is entirely possible if it has poor reception.

I think 100 is out the window without good reviews. It’s crazy this basically needs great reception at this point just so it can still finish below The Incredible Hulk… 

[John Marston]

 

[DInky]

So, the lowest domestic opening weekend of any MCU movie is in play (The Incredible Hulk is the current "record holder" with 55.4M).

 

[cooldude97]

more interested in what is going to happen at the Marvel offices when this loses money, all their projects this year outside Guardians 3 and to a lesser extent Loki Season 2 have been duds which has never happened to them like this before. honestly hope they reevaluate everything that hasn't started shooting yet, (wouldn't be surprised if Thunderbolts either gets canceled or completely redone to not be a weird black widow spin-off)